(UPDATED with Photos) #Fukushima I NPP: TEPCO Thinks Someone Opened the Wrong Valve, Causing the Leak of 100 Tonnes of RO Waste Water with 23 Terabecquerels of All-Beta

(UPDATE) One of the local papers in Fukushima Prefecture shares my suspicion that someone (possibly plural) tried to hide the mistake. Fukushima Minyu (2/22/2014; part):

実際は最大９時間は開いていたとみられることを明らかにした。弁の操作を誤った可能性があり、さらに、現場でミスを隠そうとした可能性も出てきた。発覚後の２０日未明の現場確認では問題の弁は閉まっていたが、前日の１９日午前１１時ごろの写真では弁が開いた状態で、通常は外しておく開閉操作用レバーが取り付けられていた。

[TEPCO] disclosed [on February 21] that the valve in question was in fact open for 9 hours at the maximum. There is a possiblity that someone made a mistake in operating the valve. Further, there is a possibility that they [those in the section in charge of the water transfer operation] tried to hide the mistake. In the early hours of February 20 after the leak was discovered, the valve in question was confirmed to be closed. However, in the photo taken around 11AM on the previous day (February 19) the valve was open, and the lever to open and close the valve was attached to the valve, which is normally removed.

From TEPCO's photos and videos library, 2/21/2014:

The valve in question (V347) on February 19, 2014 morning, "open" position, as it shouldn't:

The same valve on February 20, 2014, "closed" position, as it should, but after the leak:

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That's what increasingly the government public relations broadcaster aka NHK says. NHK also says TEPCO has dispatched investigators from the TEPCO headquarters (in Tokyo) to Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant and started interviewing the plant workers.

It is rather difficult to grasp what NHK is trying to say (they do talk like TEPCO's PR), but I think they are saying:

1. The RO waste water was to be transferred to a storage tank that was NOT the tank it subsequently went and overflowed.

2. Someone opened the wrong valve, and the water went to the wrong tank which was almost full. The water leaked from the top of the tank.

3. AFTER the water leaked from the wrong tank, he realized his mistake; he closed that valve, and opened the valve that should have been opened to transfer the contaminated water to the correct tank.

A gross human error (I hope), which caused (at least) 100 tonnes of extremely contaminated (230 million Bq/L of all-beta, or 23 trillion Bq (terabecquerel) in 100 tonnes) water to leak (see my post on 2/20/2014).

According to Mainichi Shinbun, the Nuclear Regulation Authority has said it is speaking with IAEA on whether to have an INES event scale assigned to this particular incident. The last year's leak of 300 tonnes of the same RO waste water from the storage tanks into the surrounding soil was INES Level 3 "incident". (Level 4 and above are "accidents".)

From NHK News (2/22/2014; emphasis is mine):

汚染水流出 誰かが配管の弁を開けたか

Contaminated water leak: Did someone open the valve?

東京電力福島第一原子力発電所で、山側のタンクから高濃度の汚染水およそ１００トンが流出した問題で、東京電力は本来、閉じている配管の弁を誰かが開けたのが原因とみて、本店の調査の担当者を派遣して作業員への聞き取りを進めています。

Regarding the 100 tonnes of highly contaminated water that leaked from a tank at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant, TEPCO has dispatched investigators from the TEPCO headquarters to the plant who are interviewing the workers. TEPCO suspects someone opened the valve that should remain closed, causing the leak.

福島第一原発では今月１９日から２０日にかけて４号機の山側にあるタンクに水が入りすぎ、汚染水およそ１００トンが敷地内の地面に流出しました。

At Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant, about 100 tonnes of contaminated water leaked into the surrounding ground in the plant compound in February 19 and 20 when too much water was poured into a tank on the mountain-side (west) of Reactor 4.

当初、東京電力は、汚染水の処理設備から問題のタンクにつながる配管の途中の弁の１つが、閉じた状態になっていたにもかかわらず、水が流れていたとして、この弁が故障していた疑いがあると説明していました。

Initially, TEPCO explained that one of the valves [there are three] on the pipe that goes to this tank may have malfunctioned, as it let the water flow even if it was closed.

ところが、別の作業で弁を撮影した写真が見つかり、水を断続的に移送していた今月１９日の午前の時点では、故障の疑いがあるとされた弁は開いた状態になっていたことが分かりました。

However, a photograph was found that captured the same valve on a different job; the photo showed that the valve, suspected of malfunctioning, was open as of the morning of February 19 when the water was being transferred intermittently.

一方、本来、汚染水を送る予定だったタンクにつながる配管の弁は１９日の午前の時点では閉じられ、水が流れないようになっていて漏えいが見つかったあとには開いていました。

On the other hand, the valve on the pipe that goes to the tank where the contaminated water was supposed to go remained closed as of the morning of February 19, blocking the water flow. However, after the leak was found, this valve was open.

東京電力はこの２つの弁を誰かが開け閉めしたことが汚染水が漏れた原因とみています。

TEPCO thinks someone opened and closed these two valves, causing the leak of the contaminated water.

弁が操作された理由や詳しい経緯を明らかにするため、東京電力は本店の調査の担当者を派遣して作業員から聞き取りを進めています。

In order to find out the details of how the incident happened and why the valves were operated, TEPCO has sent investigators from the headquarters to the plant who are interviewing the workers.

今回の問題で東京電力は弁を操作した際のタンクの水位の監視が徹底されておらず、弁の開け閉めに使う器具がふだん誰でも使える状態で置かれていたことから管理の見直しを検討しています。

TEPCO is considering a review of the maintenance/operation procedure, as the water level monitoring procedure when valves were operated was not strictly followed and the tools to open and close the valves were readily available to anyone.

(Hmmm. So TEPCO does suspect someone may have done it on purpose?)

For now, it looks like some worker made a mistake, and after the leak corrected the mistake without saying anything to anyone, hoping no one would notice.

Too bad TEPCO found the photos...

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Obama Administration Committed to Nuclear Power Generation, Gives $6.5 Billion Loan Guarantee to Vogtle Reactor Construction

It's all for " low-carbon energy future", says Obama's Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz.

Additional loan guarantee of $1.8 billion is still pending, according to the article below.

The Obama administration, in its quest for "low-carbon energy future", has invested and lost a fortune (taxpayers money) on dubious solar ventures (including infamous Solyndra). I guess the administration is now betting on a sure thing this time, on Toshiba/Westinghouse's A1000. The construction of two reactors using A1000 was approved by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in February 2012 (still under Dr. Gregory Jaczko, who cast the only dissenting vote).

(Conversely, Toshiba/Westinghouse has cleverly betted on a sure thing - national government that will print limitless amount of fiat money and collect money from the vast tax farm - the rest of us. Smart move.)

From The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (2/20/2014; emphasis is mine):

A $6.5B federal loan guarantee jolts Ga. nuclear power project

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Waynesboro, Ga. - The Obama administration signed off Thursday on a $6.5 billion loan guarantee to help Georgia utilities build the nation’s first new nuclear reactors in more than three decades.

Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz traveled to the sprawling Plant Vogtle site in east Georgia to announce the loan aid for Southern Co. and Oglethorpe Power. Another $1.8 billion loan for a third company involved in the plant, MEAG, is still in the works.

“This plant will be the economic engine for the state of Georgia,” said Georgia Power chief executive Paul Bowers. “We are proud to be the first utility to restart the nuclear renaissance here in America.”

The two nuclear reactors underway at Vogtle were supposed to be the first in a wave of new nuclear construction as part of a push toward cleaner energy when the Obama administration announced the aid in February 2010. But the boom never materialized.

Stalled efforts to limit carbon emissions, plunging natural gas prices and other stumbling blocks have delayed the loan four years and stalled a broader nuclear revival. Vogtle on Thursday became the first project to receive the federal loan guarantee since Congress established the program in 2005 to jolt the nuclear industry.

Critics pointed it out safety concerns surrounding nuclear power plants, and cited the nuclear disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant in the wake of an epic tsunami there.

“Fewer than three years have passed since the tragedy at Fukushima demonstrated that nuclear reactors can never be safe,” said Katherine Fuchs of Friends of the Earth. “Yet the president and energy secretary are ignoring its lessons.”

But Moniz said the federal guarantee is part of a broader “all of the above” effort to offer an range of alternative energy sources that could lower carbon emissions. He said he huddled with Georgia Power executives to reach a final agreement after years of delays.

“If we don’t move out with these kinds of projects, we won’t be ahead of the train,” said Moniz. “And we in the United States shouldn’t be running to catch up with the caboose.”

"Lessons" of Fukushima? What kind of lessons is Ms. Fuchs thinking of, I wonder, other than that "accidents can, and do happen at nuclear power plants".

But unless her organization starts to cite very specific lessons, Dr. Ernest Moniz will pay no attention, I'm afraid. It was Dr. Moniz who declared back in 2011 that "It would be a mistake, however, to let Fukushima cause governments to abandon nuclear power and its benefits."

But "ahead of the train", Mr. Secretary? To be run over by the train, you mean?

The Obama administration has already allocated nearly a half billion dollars for the small modular nuclear reactor development, the effort spearheaded by the world 2nd richest man Bill Gates.

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Financial Times: Washington Regrets the Shinzo Abe It Wished For

Since 1950s, the US has been demanding the kind of Japan that Prime Minister Abe is now advocating, says Financial Times.

Why is the US complaining, then? Buyer's remorse?

The subtitle "The US fears that Japan’s departure from postwar pacifism will provoke Beijing" almost reads like what Special Advisor to Prime Minister Seiichi Eto said in his Youtube video which was then taken down by the request from Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga the other day.

From Financial Times (2/19/2014; emphasis is mine):

Washington regrets the Shinzo Abe it wished for

The US fears that Japan’s departure from postwar pacifism will provoke Beijing

By David Pilling


It is fairly easy to assess the relationship between Shinzo Abe’s Japan and Xi Jinping’s China. Neither likes the other very much. Both are using nationalism as a prop to further policy aims. Both conceivably find it useful to have a “tough man” on the other side, the better to push against.

Less easy to calibrate is the state of relations between Japan and the US. This ought to be far easier to decipher. Japan is, after all, the US’s most important ally in Asia, the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” that has hosted US fighter aircraft and troops since the end of the second world war. Now, in Mr Abe, it has a leader who, after decades of American prodding, is finally willing to adopt a more robust defence posture and revisit the “freeloader” defence doctrine that pacifist Japan has long embraced. Yet having attained what it has long been after, Washington is showing signs it is getting cold feet.

One sign of that was its expression of “disappointment” after the December visit of Mr Abe to Yasukuni shrine, which is regarded as a symbol of Japan’s unrepentant militarism by China and South Korea. In the past, Washington has privately voiced its displeasure at Yasukuni visits, but has not publicly reprimanded Japan. Tokyo was taken aback by the use of the word “disappointed” – translated as shitsubo – which sounds harsh in Japanese.

There have been other signs of strain. US politicians have voiced concern at Mr Abe’s view of history. Virginia lawmakers ruled that school textbooks should also use the Korean name – East Sea – for the Sea of Japan. Washington is concerned that, under Mr Abe, Tokyo’s relations have also soured with Seoul, another important US ally.

From Japan’s perspective, Washington did not back it up with sufficient vigour when Tokyo’s control of disputed islands was cleverly challenged by Beijing’s announcement of an air defence identification zone. Washington did show its displeasure by flying B52 bombers over the zone, but Joe Biden, US vice-president, did not make a big deal of the issue when he visited Beijing.

Many officials in Tokyo regard Washington as having virtually capitulated to China’s unilateral move. They also regularly bemoan the absence of “Japan hands” around President Barack Obama, who has tended to surround himself with people far more steeped in China. More than one official in Tokyo speaks of a growing sense that Washington can no longer be relied upon to support Japan.

There is an irony to all of this that will not be lost on Mr Abe. Ever since 1950, Washington has been urging Japan to rearm and to adopt the sort of defence posture Japan’s prime minister is now advocating. No sooner was the ink dry on the 1947 pacifist constitution, written under the orders of General Douglas MacArthur, than the Americans regretted forcing Japan to forever renounce “the right of belligerency”. John Foster Dulles, appointed to negotiate the end of the US occupation, urged Japan to build an army of 300,000 to 350,000 men. China had gone communist and the US was fighting a war in Korea. It no longer suited the US to have a neutered “client state” in east Asia.

For years Japan resisted that pressure. Tokyo relied on the US nuclear umbrella and got on with the business of business. Its only concession was to form a Self Defence Force that was forbidden from fighting. Now, six decades later, Japan has a leader willing to take the US at its word. Mr Abe has the personal conviction, as well as the geopolitical pretext, to revamp Japan’s interpretation of its constitution or even to overturn pacifist article nine itself.

Now the moment has come, though, some in Washington are having second thoughts. John Kerry, secretary of state, according to one former White House official, regards Japan as “unpredictable and dangerous”. There is nervousness that Japanese nationalism will provoke a counter-reaction in Beijing. Hugh White, an Australian academic and former defence official, says the meaning is clear: “America would rather see Japan’s interests sacrificed than risk a confrontation with China.”

When Mr Abe went to Yasukuni, he may have partly been sending a message to Washington. It is a curiosity of the Japanese right that it has been the most ardent supporter of the US-Japan alliance while simultaneously being resentful of the postwar settlement imposed by Washington on a defeated Japan. Going to Yasukuni in defiance of US wishes is one way of signalling that Japan cannot always be relied upon to do Washington’s bidding.

Distaste in Washington for Mr Abe is by no means universal. In some ways, the Japanese prime minister is exactly what the US doctor ordered. He has a plan to reflate Japan’s economy. He is the first leader in years with any hope of solving the festering issue of US marine bases in Okinawa. He is willing to spend more on defence after years of a self-imposed limit of 1 per cent of output. Those policies, however, come with a price tag: a revisionist nationalism that many in Washington find distasteful.

“As China grows, Japan has more and more reason to be anxious about China’s power, and less and less confidence in America’s willingness to protect it,” Mr White says. The US, he argues, must either commit itself unambiguously to defend Japan’s core interests or help Japan regain the “strategic independence it surrendered after 1945”. Japan’s answer to that dilemma is to hold on ever tighter to America – and to pull away.

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#Fukushima I NPP: 23,000,000,000,000 Bq (or 23 Terabecquerels) of All-Beta in 100 Tonnes of Waste Water that Leaked from Top of Storage Tank

(UPDATE 2/21/2014) Someone may have opened the wrong valve, not the valve malfunctioning as initially claimed by TEPCO, causing the leak. See my latest post.

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According to TEPCO's alert for the press (2/20/2014), there has been a fresh leak of highly contaminated RO (reverse osmosis) waste water at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant, the same kind of water that was found leaking in August 2013.

The densities of radionuclides in the highly contaminated water that was found leaking on February 19, 2014 from the top of a tank that stores waste water after reverse osmosis treatment are:

Cesium-134: 3,800 Bq/L
Cesium-137: 9,300 Bq/L
Cobalt-60: 1,800 Bq/L
Manganese-54: 1,300 Bq/L
Antimony-125: 41,000 Bq/L
All-beta: 230,000,000 Bq/L

There are 1,000 liters per tonne, and TEPCO says about 100 tonnes of this water leaked.

So, in the 100 tonnes of water, there are:

23,000,000,000,000 Bq, or 23 terabecquerels of all-beta (including strontium-90)

How did this happen? It was not through some cracks or loose rivets with deteriorating packing this time.

The short answer is: TEPCO let it overflow by negligence.

The longer answer, as I extract from TEPCO's photos and videos library (2/20/2014) document:

1. The tank is a tall, riveted tank to store RO waste water in H6 area. The tank was almost full.

2. For some unknown reason, the valves of the pipe that feeds RO waste water to the tank were open, which should have been closed. The waste water kept coming and filling the tank.

3. At 2:01PM on February 19, 2014, an alarm went off, indicating the water level is dangerously high.

4. But there was no transfer of the water scheduled at that time. So TEPCO and the workers thought either the alarm was malfunctioning or the water gauge was malfunctioning. They did nothing.

5. The waste water started to overflow from the flange at the top of the tank.

6. The waste water flowed into the rain gutter installed on the perimeter of the tank top to collect rainwater.

7. The gutter is connected to a drainpipe to guide rainwater OUTSIDE the dam that surrounds the concrete pad on which the tanks stand.

8. The extremely contaminated waste water flowed through the drainpipe onto the ground.

9. Finally a worker from a TEPCO affiliate company found the leak during a patrol at 11:25PM on February 19, 2014.

10. The water stopped at 5:40AM on February 20, 2014 after the valves were closed.

The ground outside the dam looks well-saturated:

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Special Advisor to PM Abe Told to Delete Youtube Video in Which He Says "We Are the Ones Who Are Disappointed with the US"

From Bloomberg News (2/19/2014; part):

Abe Aide Told to Delete Video Criticizing U.S. Over Shrine Issue

An aide to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was instructed to delete a video in which he expressed disappointment over the U.S. reaction to the Japanese premier’s December visit to a Tokyo war shrine.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters in Tokyo he had directed Seiichi Eto, a member of the upper house of parliament and a special adviser to the prime minister, to delete the video from YouTube because it expressed a personal view rather than the government position.

The U.S. embassy last year issued a statement saying the government was “disappointed” by Abe paying his respects at the Yasukuni Shrine on Dec. 26, adding his action would “exacerbate tensions with Japan’s neighbors.” Animosity with China and South Korea over separate territorial disputes was worsened by Abe’s visit to the shrine, which is seen by many in both countries as a symbol of Japan’s past militarism.

“America said it was disappointed, but we are the ones who are disappointed they said that,” Eto said in a video posted to YouTube on Feb. 16. “Why doesn’t America value its ally Japan?”

Eto went on to say that the U.S. was trying to appease China with its statement.

“You may think the ’disappointed’ statement was directed at Japan, but that’s not the case. They are telling China that they are disappointed. My understanding is that it’s just an excuse they are making to China,” he said.

(Full article at the link)

His youtube video (it is one of his regular video new to his constituents) has already been made "private".

Mr. Seiichi Eto, pictured right, is the one who was sent to the US in October last year as special advisor to Prime Minister Abe to lay the groundwork for Abe's Yasukuni Shrine visit and obtain the understanding from the Obama administration.

In the video which I watched before it became "private", Mr. Eto expressed his puzzlement over the US response. As far as he was concerned, the US understood that Abe wanted to visit the shrine. Mr. Eto said he told the Obama administration officials not to make a big issue out of it even if they wouldn't approve of the visit, and they agreed.

It's interesting that the above Bloomberg article mentions only the US embassy (in Tokyo) that issued the "disappointed" statement, not the State Department (whose spokeswoman told a Chinese reporter to go get a dictionary).

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Chinese Government Demands Japan to Return Weapon-Grade Plutonium to the US as President Obama Has Requested

"G2" in complete agreement in this case. See my post in January this year for the demand from the other G2 nation.

From Xinhua (2/19/2014; emphasis is mine):

China calls on Japan to return plutonium to U.S.

BEIJING, Feb. 19 (Xinhuanet) -- China has voiced serious concern over Japan’s possession of weapons-grade nuclear material. The US has been calling for the return of over 300 kilos of weapons-grade plutonium, which it loaned to Japan for research during the Cold War.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry is pressing Tokyo to return the plutonium to the US as soon as possible. At a routine news conference on Monday, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Hua Chunying, said Japan’s large stockpile of plutonium poses serious nuclear security and non-proliferation risks.

China is calling on Japan to settle the imbalance between its supply and demand of nuclear materials, in accordance with International Atomic Energy Agency rules.

"China has been paying great attention to nuclear proliferation, the safety of nuclear material, and its potential threat to regional security. According to the rules of the International Atomic Energy Agency, each country should ensure a balance of supply and demand when it comes to nuclear material. Japan storing large amounts of weapons-grade material violates such rules. It is obvious that only the peaceful use of nuclear energy can guarantee no security issues will arise. China urges Japan to give a concrete explanation, and take responsibility for the safety of international society, comply with its obligations, and return the materials to the US as soon as possible.” Hua said.

"A complete explanation" is simple enough - the US gave Japan 300 kg of weapons-grade plutonium. (The understanding in Japan is that this plutonium is not "loaned" but gifted. )

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#Fukushima I NPP: Latest Photos and Video of Reactor 3 Operating Floor Show Reactor Shield Plug (Slightly Deformed in Center), Wrecked Fuel Handling Machine Still in Spent Fuel Pool

It is good to see the shield plug, presence of which should indicate that the Reactor 3 explosion was probably not nuclear as many people have postulated.

TEPCO has been clearing the debris from the Reactor 3 operating floor since September 2012, in preparation of debris removal from the Spent Fuel Pool.

Then in December 2013, with hardly any fanfare or press coverage, TEPCO started removing the debris, starting with the small pieces, from the Spent Fuel Pool, using remote-control heavy equipment (see my 1/1/2014 post).

If the SFP debris removal is on schedule (which may not be, because of the heavy snow in the past two weeks), TEPCO should be just about ready to remove the Fuel Handling Machine.

The video was taken on January 31, 2014 from a camera fitted on the boom of a crane.

From TEPCO's photos and videos library, 2/14/2014:

The entire operating floor (click to enlarge; composite photo from several photos, according to TEPCO): Upper left - DSP (Device Storage Pit), upper center - Reactor Shield Plug, upper right - Spent Fuel Pool

On October 10, 2013, the operating floor was covered with smaller debris. The shield plug was not discernible:

FYI, on March 24, 2011, it looked like this:

In the latest photo, the shield plug appears intact, but if you look closely the center of the middle piece is depressed downward. TEPCO's analysis is that some heavy debris fell on top of the piece after the explosion, and the shield plug itself (which has three layers) is structurally sound. The shield plug is not likely to be touching the Containment Vessel head, says TEPCO in the accompanying document.

Again from TEPCO's photos and videos library, 2/14/2014, photos of the shield plug, with the second photo showing the gap of 300 millimeters (or 30 centimeters):

Diagrams of the shield plug, and TEPCO's analysis on the deformed shield plug, from the accompanying document (Japanese):

(TEPCO's analysis above)

The cause of deformation could be "hydrogen explosion" or "falling of the ceiling crane and other objects". However, as the floor slab (30-centimeter and 60-centimeter thick) surrounding the shield plug is not damaged, it is not likely that the shield plug (made of three layers of ferroconcrete (60 centimeters each) was deformed by the hydrogen explosion. The ceiling crane itself did not make direct contact with the shield plug after it fell, but there was a trolley above the shield plug. So the deformation is likely to have been caused by the fall of the main hoisting hook onto the shield plug.

原因として「水素爆発」「天井クレーン等の落下」が考えられるが，シールドプラグ周囲の床スラブ（厚さ:30cm,60cm）が損傷を受けていないことから，水素爆発でシールドプラグ（鉄筋コンクリート製，厚さ約60cm×3層）が変形したとは考え難い。また、落下後の天クレ本体は直接シールドプラグに接していなかったものの，プラグ上部にはトロリーがあり主巻フック等の衝突によるものと推定される。

The first diagram shows (on the left) that there is a 1,200 millimeter (1.2 meter) gap between the bottom of the third layer of the shield plug and the Primary Containment Vessel head. TEPCO doesn't seem to think the mid and bottom layers were damaged and causing damage to the Containment Vessel, and cites the results of dust sampling and air dose rate measurements on the shield plug and surrounding area as evidence (no significant difference in radioactivity).

The location where the steam have been seen rising, from TEPCO (7/24/2013):

The video taken on 1/31/2014:

The most severe damage, on concrete floor at least, is not seen near the shield plug or the Spent Fuel Pool on the east half of the operating floor but in the northwest corner (bottom left in the overall photo, or in the video showing the entire floor in the beginning). I wonder what was there (or the floor below).

For the changing look of the Reactor 3 operating floor, see my post on 12/31/2013.

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(OT) Birthday Music For Me

(Just because I'm playing this music in the orchestra version, you get to hear it, if you like.)

Astor Piazzolla: La Muerte Del Angel (1985 in Utrecht, Netherlands)

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(OT) Heavy Snowfall in Kanto That Has Killed 15 So Far Is Clearly Not Disastrous Enough for Prime Minister Abe...

The tweet (2/17/2014) by Asahi Shinbun's reporters attached to the Prime Minister's Official Residence says it all:

Reporters: What is your thoughts on the government's measures for the heavy snow?

PM Abe: Good Morning!

The twitter account of the PM Official Residence on Emergency Response Information did not have anything on the extreme snow fall in parts of Kanto, particularly Yamanashi, until the afternoon of Sunday February 16, 2014. Even then, it only retweeted the tweets by Ministry of Land and Infrastructure with the links to PDF files (as if people accessing the emergency tweets on their cellphones can easily open the PDF files).

There was a tweet by someone who called the PM Official Residence on Sunday to urge someone there to get busy on helping Yamanashi and other prefectures which are not prepared for this kind of snowfall. (In normal years, Yamanashi's snowfall is about 14 centimeters. This year, it is over 156 centimeters.) The call was received by a guard, who told this person to call back on Monday (weekday).

PM Abe himself had a tempura dinner (15,000 yen (US$150) per person, I hear) on Sunday with his supporters at an upscale restaurant in uptown Tokyo, as people stuck on the highways and roads in Yamanashi and northern Kanto survived on free bread provided by Yamazaki Bread.

Another heavy snow storm is expected this week, as early as February 17 or 18.

As to the new governor of Tokyo who said "Snow? What's the big deal?", his twitter account has nothing so far on the snow emergency, which is severely affecting the western (mountainous) Tokyo. The last tweet was on February 13 or 14, telling his followers he has been working very hard every day as the governor.

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TEPCO Tells Governor of Niigata That They Can Delay Deploying Filtered Vent at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP for 18 Hours in Case of a Severe Accident

A strange song and dance continues between TEPCO and Governor of Niigata Hirohiko Izumida.

Mr. Izumida is considered to be one of the champions for people who are against nuclear power plants in Japan for his combative stance against TEPCO with his remarks like "Which is more important, profit or people's lives?" to a president of a (nominally) for-profit enterprise.

He is also insisting that TEPCO NOT use the filtered vent to be installed at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant unless he gives the express permission to do so in case of a severe accident like the one that hit Fukushima I NPP.

Why? Because the filtered vent cannot eliminate the volatile radioactive materials like noble gas and iodine-131. Izumida doesn't want the vent to take place while the residents in the surrounding areas evacuate.

So TEPCO came up with an assurance that they would do the vent in 18 hours after the start of a severe accident.

To refresh our memory, Reactor 1 at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant suffered a core melt by the early morning of March 12, 2011. The earthquake that triggered the scram of the reactor core was 2:46PM on March 11, 2011.

If that's what Izumida wants - wait for 18 hours to do the vent in a severe accident, I guess he is willing to own a severe accident and its consequences at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP.

From Sankei Shinbun (2/12/2014; part):

東京電力は、柏崎刈羽原子力発電所（新潟県柏崎市、刈羽村）で過酷事故が起きた場合、事故発生から最短で１８時間後に原子炉格納容器内の蒸気を、事故対策用のフィルター付きベント（排気）設備を通して外部へ排出するとの試算を公表した。

TEPCO announced the result of simulation that the vent would be done in 18 hours at the earliest using the filtered vent facilities in order to release the steam inside the Containment Vessel in case of a severe accident at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (in Kashiwazaki City and Kariwa-mura in Niigata Prefecture).

県が開催した原発の専門家でつくる「技術委員会」で示した。試算では、原発施設の原子炉を冷却する設備がすべて使えなくなり、消防車でも炉心注水に失敗するという最悪の事態を想定した。

TEPCO announced the result in the technology committee made up of nuclear experts and organized by the Niigata prefectural government. The simulation was based on the worst case scenario whereby all the reactor cooling mechanisms failed, including water injection into the reactor core using fire engines.

東電が具体的な時間を示したことについて泉田裕彦知事は１２日の記者会見で、「想定通り１８時間はベントしないで済むのかどうかも含めて、技術的に検討する必要がある」と述べた。

During the press conference on February 12, Governor Hirohiko Izumida commented on the specific timeframe TEPCO indicated. "We need to do the technical evaluation, including whether the vent could really be delayed for 18 hours as assumed by TEPCO."

東電は、ベント設備は格納容器内の蒸気に含まれる粒子状の放射性物質を千分の１に減少させるが、気体状の放射性物質は除去できない、としている。

According to TEPCO, the filtered vent facilities reduce particulate radioactive materials in the steam inside the Containment Vessel to one-thousands, but they cannot remove volatile radioactive materials.

While I do not think much of Governor Izumida's insistence on approving the vent in case of a severe accident, he is probably doing more to help Yamanashi Prefecture to dig itself out of the heavy snow than the national government or other local government.

Niigata is famous for the extremely heavy snow fall it routinely gets during winter, and it is extremely well-equipped to deal with such snow fall. According to Niigata Nippo newspaper, Izumida has already sent four officials to assess the situation in Yamanashi to plan a rescue operation including sending snow-plowing specialists in Niigata.

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Possible Leak of Alpha and Beta Radiation Emitters at Transuranic Radioactive Waste Underground Storage Facility in New Mexico, DOE Official Doesn't Quantify the Leak

The facility, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), takes plutonium-contaminated waste from Los Alamos National Laboratory and other federal nuclear projects.

According to wiki,

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, or WIPP, is the world's third deep geological repository (after closure of Germany's Repository for radioactive waste Morsleben and the Schacht Asse II Salt Mine) licensed to permanently dispose of transuranic radioactive waste for 10,000 years that is left from the research and production of nuclear weapons.

(FYI, transuranic elements: the chemical elements with atomic numbers greater than 92 (the atomic number of uranium))

From Salon, quoting AP (2/16/2014; emphasis is mine):

Crews monitor NM nuclear repository for radiation

CARLSBAD, N.M. (AP) — Officials checking the presence of airborne radiation at an underground site in southeastern New Mexico where the U.S. government seals away low-grade nuclear waste say surface tests have detected no contamination.

Samples were taken at several sites around the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant after an air monitor found radiation on the underground levels of the facility around 11:30 p.m. Friday, the U.S. Department of Energy said in a news release.

No workers were underground at the time and no injuries or damages have been reported. A fire at the site earlier this month prompted an evacuation.

“Monitors at the WIPP boundary have confirmed there is no danger to human health or the environment,” the department said late Saturday night. “No contamination has been found on any equipment, personnel, or facilities.”

Energy Department spokesman Roger Nelson said that the 139 workers aboveground at the site near Carlsbad were told Saturday to stay where they were as a precaution. None of them tested positive for contamination, and all non-essential personnel were released, Nelson said.

The surface samples show no contamination has been detected, implying the leak was “not significant,” he said.

Nelson says the cause of the leak is not known yet. The devices that continuously monitor the air underground reached a threshold level that automatically switches the ventilation system into a filtered mode. He couldn’t quantify the level it takes to trigger the monitors, but says they’re sensitive. He says the monitors have been triggered in the past by radon fluctuations.

WIPP stores waste that emits alpha and beta radiation, which is in particulate form, so the risk is of inhalation not penetration, he said.

No one has been underground, and Nelson said he didn’t know when that would happen.

“We are going to take measurements and make sure we understand it” before sending in a team, he said.

U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce issued a statement saying, “WIPP has acted quickly and cautiously to ensure the safety of personnel and the local community.”

============================

The incident comes 10 days after an underground truck fire at the plant prompted an evacuation. Six people were treated for smoke inhalation on Feb. 5.

Nelson said the fire was in a different part of the site, about 1,000 feet away, from where the radiation was found.

Asked if the incidents were related, he said, “I just can’t think of a scenario where there would be a relationship.”

WIPP is the nation’s first and only deep geological nuclear waste repository. It takes plutonium-contaminated waste from Los Alamos National Laboratory and other federal nuclear projects.

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#Fukushima I NPP: TEPCO Now Admits Underestimation of Beta Nuclides in 167 Samples Since March 2011

The total number of samples for beta nuclide analyses from March 2011 to January 2014 is 20,866. It turns out that if the sample contains more than 200,000 Bq/Liter of beta nuclides, the instrument cannot accurately measure the radioactivity.

From Fukushima Minyu (2/15/2014):

167体で誤測定の可能性　ベータ線を出す放射性物質

Possibility of mistakes in measuring beta nuclides in 167 samples

東京電力が福島第１原発の汚染水測定でストロンチウム９０などベータ線を出す放射性物質の濃度を過小に推計していた問題で、東電は１４日、事故直後の２０１１（平成２３）年３月から今年１月末までに測定した試料１６７体について、正確な測定できず、測定値を過小に推計した可能性があるとする調査結果を発表した。いずれも実際の値はさらに上昇する見通し。

TEPCO underestimated the densities of beta nuclides including strontium-90 in the analyses of contaminated water at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant. On February 14, TEPCO announced the result of the investigation that says TEPCO underestimated [the densities of beta nuclides] in 167 samples taken and analyzed between March 2011 and the end of January 2014. The actual densities are expected to be much higher.

東電によると、１６７体は、海水や観測用井戸から採取した地下水や、敷地内の土壌など。

According to TEPCO, these 167 samples were taken from the seawater, groundwater from the observation wells, and soil inside the plant compound.

東電が原発事故直後から今年１月末までに測定したベータ線を出す放射性物質の件数は計２万８６６体。これまでの調査で、測定機器では１リットル当たり２０万ベクレルを超える試料は正確な値が測定されないことが判明しており、検体数を確認したところ１６７体に上った。東電は今後、これらの検体を測定し直し、正確な測定値を公表するとしている。

The total number of samples for beta nuclide analyses from immediately after the start of the nuclear accident and the end of January this year is 20,866. The investigation so far has revealed that the instrument [used by TEPCO] cannot accurately measure the samples with beta nuclides exceeding 200,000 Bq/Liter, and there are 167 such samples. TEPCO says the company will analyze these samples again, and publish the accurate results.

Only now TEPCO is allowed to admit to the mistake. Now that the 2020 Olympics will be held in Tokyo, and now that the Tokyo gubernatorial election is safely over, with the win by a pro-nuclear candidate with whom TEPCO is very comfortable working.

TEPCO correctly measured the sample with 5 million Bq/L of strontium-90, but they did not disclose the number because their measurement of all-beta including strontium-90 in the same sample was 0.9 million Bq/L, which was an impossibility. They sat on it, and sat on it until February 7, 2014.

According to tweets by nuclear experts, TEPCO has the analysis lab at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant with 30 staff members. According to these experts, it is barely adequate for the amount of work they have to do.

And where is the promise of "the national government at the forefront" by the Abe administration?

Now that the 2020 Olympics is in the bag and the governor of Tokyo is the highly blackmailable Masuzoe, Abe has moved on to his pet project - Constitutional amendment, which will be determined solely by him as the "CEO" of the nation.

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(UPDATED) (OT) Tokyo and Wider Kanto Area Are Snowed Under, New Tokyo Governor Says "What's the Big Deal? It Will Be Over in One Day."

(UPDATE) The national government finally had a teleconference with the Yamanashi prefectural government, in which the governor of Yamanashi asked for the national disaster response assistance, including sending personnel from Ministry of Land and Infrastructure who have expertise in dealing with heavy snow, according to a local Yamanashi newspaper.

Minister Furuya in charge of disaster prevention in the Abe administration instructed the ministries/agencies involved to collect detailed information using social networking websites.

...... (Who needs a national government for that?)

====================

The snow storm on February 14 and 15 seems to have been even more severe than the one the week earlier in Kanto. For a while, residents in prefectures that regularly have heavy snow falls were smiling and bemused at residents in Kanto, particularly in Tokyo, for making a huge fuss about the snow fall that was about 30 centimeters in Tokyo, until everyone started to realize that these large and small cities in Tokyo and wider Kanto area are not designed to expect a snow fall more than 20 centimeters at most.

Particularly hard-hit seems to be Yamanashi Prefecture, located west of Tokyo. Judging from tweets from residents there, the prefectural and municipal governments in Yamanashi are taking the weekend off.

A tweet below by a high school teacher tweeting information he gets from his student says "The road in front of my house [student's house] hasn't been snowplowed. Can't even walk."

【生徒宅より情報】我が家の道は 除雪車が はいってないので 歩けません。#山梨　#大雪 pic.twitter.com/kRnfqoW2jo

— 山口隆之 (@FujizoushiBot) February 16, 2014

The high school teacher also tweets, "There is no emergency response headquarters in the village, no information as to the plans by the government. Here's our situation and we need help."

Yoichi Masuzoe, the newly elected governor of Tokyo thanks to the organized votes from LDP/Komei/Soka Gakkai and hardly anything else, seems to be taking the weekend off also. His last twitter is on February 13. And if this screenshot is true...

お前が1日で終わってくれ！ RT @sa________ku: コレが本当なら、都内の雪災害に対して、都民自らが対処するしかないね。 pic.twitter.com/gMche06DH8

— マリィさんとべぇちゃん (@marieYK) February 16, 2014

Announcer (Seiji Miyane): "Speaking of disaster preparedness, this heavy snow [probably about the one a week ago] can be considered a disaster, don't you think?"
Masuzoe: "This is not a big deal at all. It will be over in a day."

"You should be over in a day" is the comment on the tweet.

If you recall, disaster preparedness was one of the supposedly main issues (unlike nuclear power policies) of the gubernatorial election held on February 9. Modus operandi of Masuzoe seems to be the same as the Kan administration in March 2011, particularly that of then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio "There is no immediate effect" Edano.

Close your eyes, and it doesn't exist any more.

And the national government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe? The twitter account of Prime Minister's Official Residence Emergency Response Information, which has nearly one million followers, made the last update on February 15, announcing the "Disaster Response Volunteer Week" event.

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(UPDATED) (Now They Tell Us) Highly Radioactive Pieces Found in Naraha-Machi in June/July 2013 Came from #Fukushima I NPP, TEPCO Now Says

(UPDATE-2) Of all news outlets, it was Yomiuri who reported the news (two days late) and mentioned the last remaining potential route for the debris pieces - Reactor 3 explosion. From Yomiuri Shinbun (2/24/2014):

原子炉建屋の水素爆発で飛び散ったのか、海から流されてきたのかなど、理由は不明という。

The reason [why the debris pieces were there] is unknown; they could have been scattered by the hydrogen explosion in the reactor building, or they could have come from the ocean.

This news continues to be mostly ignored by both the mainstream media and the alternative net media. Very strange.

==========================

(UPDATE 2/13/2014) The only news I've found so far about these debris pieces in Naraha-machi is from FNN local Fukushima news. Even that news hides the fact that the radioactivity of maximum 2.92 million becquerels of radioactive cesium IS PER 0.4 GRAM SAMPLE.

==========================

Specifically, four small pieces of debris found at the river mouth in Naraha-machi 15 kilometers from the plant may have come from Reactor 3.

The first piece of debris were found in June 2013, but TEPCO didn't mention the discovery until July after three more such high-radiation pieces were found. Even then, they published a half-baked result of the analysis, which was nothing more than the measurement of gamma radiation and beta radiation in microsieverts per hour. (See my post on July 2, 2013 for the first discovery.)

TEPCO disclosed the result of the analysis of the debris done by Japan Atomic Energy Agency (of Monju fame) during the regular February 12, 2014 press conference, and no major news outlet has reported the news so far. Only bloggers took note. (I suppose the mainstream media is busy educating themselves on the intricacies of the State Secrecy Protection Law, even though it hasn't gone into effect yet.)

According to TEPCO, the pieces of debris were not only highly contaminated with radioactive materials released from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant but they actually, most likely came from the plant. The degree of contamination from radioactive materials found on the small pieces of debris is similar to that on the debris found around the Reactor 3 building.

From TEPCO's handout for the press, 2/12/2014 (in Japanese):

Very high contamination from cesium-134, cesium-137, and presence of cobalt-60 (in blue rectangle, added by me). Note the unit is Bq per sample, not kilogram. For example, Sample No.3 (0.4 gram) has 2.0 x 10^6 Bq, or 2 million becquerels of cesium-137:

Very high all-beta:

But the composition of radioactive materials (ratio) on the debris pieces shows almost all radioactivity comes from cesium-134 and cesium-137:

Radioactivity of the debris pieces, compared to those of the debris around the Reactor 3 building and of the soil in Naraha-machi and neighboring Hirono-machi. The debris pieces have about the same order of magnitude of contamination as the debris around Reactor 3 for cesium-137, and one to three orders of magnitude higher contamination for cobalt-60. Unit is Bq per gram:

What are the debris pieces made of? Polyethylene, polyolefine, wood:

TEPCO and JAEA's conclusion:

1. These small pieces of debris came from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant, most likely from the Reactor 3 building.

2. The high-beta radiation found on the pieces are not from beta-nuclides but from beta radiation from cesium-134 and cesium-137, judging by the composition of the radioactivity.

3. How they got to the river mouth is unknown. It could be by the ocean, or by land. The analysis is inconclusive on that point.

As far as incurious TEPCO goes, this is the end of the analysis. There will be no further analysis whether there is any contribution from MOX fuel that was in the Reactor 3's Pressure Vessel.

During the press conference, TEPCO's PR people could barely answer the questions on this issue, other than to say this was done by JAEA.

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(OT) Tokyo Gubernatorial Election in One Chart

People have made a great deal out of the "high" percentage of votes among voters between 20 and 30 years old that went to Mr. Toshio Tamogami, ex-Chief of Staff of Self Defense Air Force. But if you look at the absolute number of votes cast by this age group, they were insignificant.

Much more solid showing of Mr. Tamogami in the 30-40 years old and 40-50 years old brackets is more interesting. There, Tamogami almost equally split votes cast with both Utsunomiya and Hosokawa.

Anyway, people in 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s who live in Tokyo (particularly those in their 20s) couldn't be bothered to go to vote on a snowy day in the middle of potentially an extended weekend (if they took Monday off), and we got Mr. Masuzoke, a puppet for the Abe administration whose agendas turned out to have been hinged on this election.

Another way to look at this chart is to eyeball and lump Masuzue and Utsunomiya votes together as "organized votes": Masuzoe - LDP, Komei, Soka Gakkai and Labor Union, and Utsunomiya - Communist Party, Social Democrats, Labor Union. Both Masuzoe and Utsunomiya pretty much maxed out on the votes they could get through the organizations that backed them. Utsunomiya's votes this time were hardly different from what he had gotten in December 2012 gubernatorial election where Inose had won with more than 4.6 million votes.

Hosokawa and Tamogami, over 1.5 million votes between them, got their votes from people with no party affiliation. If the voting rate had been much higher, I suspect they both would have easily gotten double of what they got.

Chart created by @joe0212t, English labels are mine:

Meanwhile, Governor Masuzoe tried his chair in his governor's office, and said "It's just an ordinary chair."

Mr. Hosokawa issued his message to his supporters apologizing that he couldn't beat Mr. Masuzoe.

Mr. Utsunomiya visited the Communist Party headquarters, and together with the party chairman, celebrated his "win" over the two former prime ministers. "Sense of accomplishment," said Mr. Utsunomiya.

Governor Masuzoe is also busy peddling his new book on his Twitter. The topic of the book? Constitutional amendment.

(Are you starting to freak out yet?)

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#Nuclear Japan: Nuclear Regulation Authority Agrees That Ooi Nuclear Power Plant Does Not Have Active Faults

It's Nuclear Regulation Authority's turn to be bullish on nuclear power plants in Japan awaiting NRA's approval to restart, now that the Tokyo gubernatorial election ended with the result interpreted as great endorsement of Prime Minister Abe's policies across the board.

NRA accepted the conclusion of the experts that the fractured zones inside the Ooi Nuclear Power Plant compound are not active faults.

All set to restart, then.

From Jiji Tsushin (2/12/2014):

「活動せず」報告書を了承＝大飯原発の敷地内断層－規制委

NRA accepted the report that fractured zones at Ooi Nuclear Power Plant are not "active faults"

　関西電力大飯原発（福井県おおい町）敷地内の破砕帯（断層）が活断層である疑いを指摘されていた問題で、原子力規制委員会は１２日、「将来活動する可能性のある断層などには該当しない」とする専門家調査団の報告書を了承した。

Fractured zones inside KEPCO's Ooi Nuclear Power Plant (Ooi-cho, Fukui Prefecture) compound have been suspected to be active faults. However, on February 12, 2014, Nuclear Regulation Authority accepted the report by a group of experts whose conclusion is that "they are not faults that may become active in the future".

Ooi Nuclear Power Plant in Fukui Prefecture is accessible through a tunnel. In a severe accident after a big earthquake and tsunami, the only way to access the plant is by boat, if the tunnel collapses. Even then, if the plant harbor is destroyed by tsunami, oh well. It is not supposed to happen, and therefore it won't happen.

The experts investigating on behalf of NRA did two surveys of the site to determine whether the fractured zones were active faults. The first survey was inconclusive, with most experts saying they were active faults. Clearly that changed in the second survey.

In case of a severe accident, the emergency response headquarters at Ooi Nuclear Power Plant will be a small spare room next to the central control room. There was no objection at all from NRA to this arrangement.

Again, the Tokyo gubernatorial election was supposed to be a mere provincial election (which was not, as revealed after the election by the compliant media), and the nuclear issues were supposed to be of little significance (which were total opposite, as revealed after the election by the compliant media).

There's no stopping the Abe administration now.

(... unless another swarm of jellyfish clogs water intakes...)

Ooi Nuclear Power Plant and the access tunnel:

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#Nuclear Japan: Nuclear Plant Operators Breathe a Sigh of Relief on Masuzoe's Win, "He Is Someone We Can Work With"

It's not just TEPCO, which provides electricity in Tokyo, but also other nuclear power plant operators, as Sankei Shinbun hints.

Again, so much for the Tokyo governor race being just a provincial, local race where jobs and social welfare should be the top issues.

The election to choose the head of a prefecture with over 10,000,000 electoral votes may be on par with a national election to choose the head of the state in mid- to small-size European countries.

It is really funny and sad at the same time (or schadenfreude) that all of Japan's mainstream media, including Sankei, started covering the nuclear issues as presented during the Tokyo gubernatorial election campaign, as soon as the election was over at 8PM on February 9, and continues to do so now.

During the election, they made sure they didn't cover the issue, and were very busy downgrading the issue, ridiculing the one candidate who put an enormous emphasis on the issue, and ridiculing his extremely vocal supporter. They didn't even show their faces in the video clips.

During the election, they completely buried the coverage of Hosokawa/Koizumi in their reporting. Now, almost all of them now say it was Hosokawa, with the strong support from Koizumi, that the Abe administration feared.

From the unabashedly pro-nuclear and pro-Abe Sankei Shinbun (2/10/2014; part) on the reaction to the election result from electric power companies:

「建設的な議論ができる人という印象だ」。東京電力幹部は舛添氏をこう評す。舛添氏の勝利に電力業界にも安堵の空気が広がる。「原発ゼロ」を唱える細川元首相が当選すれば、各社が待ち望む原発再稼働が遠のく恐れがあったからだ。

"Our impression is that he is someone whom we can hold a constructive talk," executives at TEPCO commented on Mr. Masuzoe. The electric utility industry breathes a collective sigh of relief on Mr. Masuzoe's victory. It is because there was a chance that the restart of nuclear power plants that all [nuclear power plant] operators have been waiting for might have been further delayed if former Prime Minister Hosokawa, who was calling for "Zero Nuke Plant", had won.

Still, the supporters of the "socialist attorney" who came in the victorious (to him) second in the election are still busy dissing the Hosokawa supporters, or in rare cases telling them, "Let's work together again, let bygones be bygones."

Work, like carrying a banner in one of those festive demonstrations with chants and songs and dances, probably.

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PM Abe Takes Tokyo Governor Race Win by Masuzoe as Endorsement of His Administration, Moves Ahead with Nuke Restart, Constitutional Change

Sure enough, on the heel of a big win by the candidate that his party supported in the Tokyo gubernatorial election, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe moves full on again on restarting the nuclear power plants in Japan and crafting the new national energy policy that puts nuclear power back in the center.

Abe takes Masuzoe's win as strong endorsement of his administration's policies, particularly nuclear policies, just as The Economist and other influential foreign papers predicted (here's Wall Street Journal's take, with a not-so-kind photograph of Masuzoe).

It will be not just the restart of the nuclear power plants in Japan. To those of you who briefly had a glimmer of hope that Japan would finally ditch the fast breeder Monju, my condolences. Abe also wants to quickly pass the budget, modify the Constitution and carry out an educational reform.

All because the LDP/Komei backed Masuzoe won in the Tokyo gubernatorial election.

And who were all those people who insisted that the governorship of Tokyo was just another local, provincial matter with little bearing on the national politics? Whoever you are, my condolences, too.

From Mainichi Shinbun, published after the poll closed on February 9, 2014 (part):

都知事選:首相、主要政策に追い風　エネ計画月内決定

Tokyo gubernatorial election result will act as tailwind for Prime Minister's core policies, energy policies to be decided within this month

東京都知事選で自民、公明両党の支援する舛添要一元厚生労働相（６５）が当選し、安倍晋三首相は今年最初のハードルを越えた。原発再稼働に前向きな安倍政権の姿勢は一定の評価を得たととらえ、国の中長期的なエネルギー政策の指針となる新たな「エネルギー基本計画」を月内にも閣議決定する。さらに２０１４年度予算案を早期に成立させて「経済重視」をアピールしつつ、集団的自衛権の行使を可能にする憲法解釈の変更や教育委員会改革などを進める構えだ。

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cleared the first hurdle of this year by the win in the Tokyo gubernatorial election by Yoichi Masuzoe, former Minister of Health and Labor who was supported by both LDP and Komen Party. Masuzoe's win is considered as a certain degree of approval of the Abe administration which is in favor of the restart of nuclear power plants, and the new Basic Energy Plan will be approved by a cabinet decision within this month. The Basic Energy Plan serves as guidelines for mid- to long-term national energy policies. Further, Abe will pass the fiscal 2014 budget at the earliest opportunity to appeal his "focus on the economy" as well as modifying the interpretation of the Constitution that will enable Japan to exercise the right to collective defense and carrying out the reform of Board of Education.

首相に近い参院議員の一人は「首相は自民党を捨てた舛添氏をよく思っていないが、『勝てる候補』と割り切った」と首相の心情を代弁する。今年は大型の国政選挙が予定されていないものの、首都・東京で敗れた場合、高い内閣支持率を保ってきた政権の潮目が変わりかねなかったためだ。

One of the Councilors close to the prime minister speaks for Mr. Abe and says "Prime Minister doesn't think highly of Mr. Masuzoe who abandoned Liberal Democratic Party, but decided to see him as "someone who could win the election"." There is no large national election to be held this year, but if [the LDP-backed candidate] had lost in Tokyo, capital of Japan, the tide may have turned against the Abe administration whose approval rating has remained high.

細川護熙元首相と小泉純一郎元首相による「脱原発」の争点化が奏功しなかったことで、政府は、都知事選後に閣議決定を先送りしていたエネルギー基本計画について、原発を「ベース電源」と位置付けた政府素案から大きく修正しない方向だ。ただ、今後の核燃料サイクル政策を巡っては、高速増殖原型炉もんじゅを計画通り進めることに自公両党の批判が強い。自民党の高市早苗政調会長は９日夜、毎日新聞の取材に「相当丁寧に議論していかなければならない」と述べ、政府に慎重な対応を求めた。

Seeing that the efforts by former prime ministers Morihiro Hosokawa and Junichiro Koizumi to turn the "beyond nuclear" movement as an election issue was not successful, the Abe government is not going to vastly modify the government draft plan of the Basic Energy Plan, which defines nuclear power as "basic power supply". The government had deferred the cabinet decision on the Basic Energy Plan until after the Tokyo gubernatorial election. However, there are significant objections from within both LDP and Komen Party to operating the fast breeder Monju as planned, as part of the fuel cycle policy. Sanae Takaichi, Chairman of LDP's Policy Research Council, said in the Mainichi Shinbun interview in the evening of February 9 that [Monju and the fuel cycle policy] would have to be thoroughly discussed, and would require a cautious approach by the government.

Thorough discussion and cautious approach. Just like when they passed the State Secrecy Protection Law. So ditch that thought that Japan finally ditches Monju.

Remember that Abe wanted to run a young female candidate to win the election. When he and his administration saw the attorney who had been defeated very badly by Mr. Inose in the December 2012 election entering the race again, they decided on Mr. Masuzoe, who they were confident could easily beat him (which he did, even if he was a man).

In the National Diet Budget Committee on the next day (February 10), Prime Minister Abe moved quickly with his coalition partner Komei Party (that also supported Mr. Masuzoe) and effectively resurrected nuclear power as "basic power supply". There is no way that "basic power supply" for the nation will be terminated in the near or even the distant future.

And what are those "beyond nuclear" supporters of the "socialist lawyer" (as The Economist puts him) doing?

Gloating on the "win" over the former prime ministers who wanted to immediately ditch nuclear power.

They are promising their followers the "long" struggle toward a nuclear-free future someday. Masuzoe's win seems to have guaranteed them a life work, paid or otherwise. Congratulations for that.

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The Economist Magazine: Masuzoe's Win Means the Abe Administration Will Restart Nuclear Power Plants as Early as This Summer

The magazine says former Prime Minister Hosokawa backed by former Prime Minister Koizumi could have dealt "the biggest blow" to Prime Minister Abe and pro-nuclear LDP, but votes were drawn away by a socialist lawyer Utsunomiya (who came in the distant second). The magazine also predicts Governor Masuzoe will be known to the outside world on the single issue: his misogyny.

That's vastly different from the naïve and happy narratives that are circulating right now inside Japan, one day after the election. Some of the narratives are:

It's just a local election after all, and the governorship is not about overall energy policies but about local, "main street" issues like social welfare and taking care of the socially weak and creating jobs for the young. [As I wrote in the previous post, this view is shared by LDP, right-wing think tanks, Social Dems and Communist Party.]

Nuclear issues should not be on the forefront anyway, and it was Koizumi's gravest mistake to put them forward. Tokyo residents were smarter than Koizumi and knew what the real issues were.

Masuzoe won by a big margin because of his meticulously crafted policies that persuaded Tokyo residents to vote for him, and he will be a great governor to make Tokyo "No.1 city in the world". [Never mind that only a handful of citizens bothered to attend his speeches during the campaign.]

Mr. Utsunomiya has "won" by defeating Hosokawa/Koizumi, and that's great for the anti-nuclear movement by ordinary citizens.

Never mind that Mr. Utsunomiya hardly increased his votes this time from his disastrous previous election result in 2012. For him and Communist Party who backed him, it's a great win because together they defeated the conservative LDP prime minister (Koizumi) who had defeated Communist Party's objections in Koizumi's signature "structural reform" when Koizumi was the Prime Minister in the first half of 2000s.

Hosokawa's votes seem to have entirely come from those who had voted for Naoki Inose in 2012, who was also backed by LDP. Thus the lament from anti-nuclear people who supported Hosokawa this time despite the differences in issues outside nuclear: "If only Mr. Utsunomiya had stepped down." (And if only it hadn't snowed, of course.)

But I digress. Here's The Economist's view of the election (2/9/2014; emphasis is mine):

Tokyo’s gubernatorial election

Powering on


FOR a brief few weeks the millions of Japanese who do not love Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, had reason to hope. The combination of Morihiro Hosokawa and Junichiro Koizumi, two former premiers, entered the race for governor of Tokyo with a resonant campaign cry; to steer Japan rapidly towards zero nuclear power. With Mr Koizumi backing Mr Hosokawa’s candidacy, it seemed possible that he might deliver the biggest blow to Mr Abe and his pro-nuclear Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since their return to power in December 2012. But on February 9th those hopes melted away as quickly as the snow which had blanketed Tokyo on the eve of the vote. The race was won handily by Yoichi Masuzoe (pictured right, on the campaign trail with Mr Abe, left), a former health minister backed by the LDP, according to projections from NHK, the national broadcaster.

The result’s chief significance is that it clears the way for Mr Abe to press ahead with switching on some of Japan’s idled nuclear reactors, possibly as early as this summer. The crusade by the ever-popular Mr Koizumi, just under three years on from the 2011 catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, had unnerved his former party. In the election for the upper house of parliament in July 2013, Tokyo elected two vehemently anti-nuclear MPs, showing the strength of opposition. Yet the anti-nuclear camp remained divided for the governor’s race. A socialist lawyer, Kenji Utsunomiya, who also opposed a return to nuclear, drew away votes from Mr Hosokawa. Turnout was low, owing to the snow.

Mr Koizumi will hardly give up his campaign. He is now likely to ally with figures who can pack a weightier punch than the elderly Mr Hosokawa, who is descended from a line of feudal lords. Hirohiko Izumida, the governor of Niigata prefecture, for example, is another key foe of nuclear restarts. The LDP itself now contains many more people who question the country’s former reliance on nuclear power than in the past. Yet the Tokyo election shows that the anti-nuclear vote is neither overwhelming in size nor easily mobilised, even by a political superstar.

The LDP reluctantly backed Mr Masuzoe amid a dearth of strong candidates; he had walked out of the party in 2010. During the campaign he emphasised local matters such as social welfare and the hosting of the Olympics in 2020. Yet he starts his governorship of the gleaming megalopolis with the outside world focused on one characteristic; his reputation for misogyny. When Tokyo women called on Twitter for a "sex strike" against men voting for Mr Masuzoe, the media tuned in. More than two decades ago, then a political scientist, he told a magazine that women are unfit for high political office because they menstruate.

While Mr Masuzoe’s comment, exhumed from 1989, met with radical counter-action, the rightwing ravings of Toshio Tamogami, another of the four leading candidates, attracted little censure. Mr Tamogami was sacked in 2008 as the chief of Japan’s air force for writing, among other things, that President Franklin D. Roosevelt deliberately tricked Japan into attacking Pearl Harbour. Mr Abe should go once a month to the controversial Yasukuni shrine, he declared during the campaign, until China and South Korea finally get tired of complaining. One of Mr Tamogami’s supporters, Naoki Hyakuta, a member of the board of NHK, this week declared to voters that the Nanjing massacre of Chinese civilians by Japanese soldiers in late 1937 “never happened”. All in all, not an election to be proud of.

Not an election to be proud of. Not indeed.

However, The Economist is wrong if it really thinks Masuzoe's 1989 comment was "met with radical counter-action". Only the tabloid newspapers carried the story, and the mainstream newspapers and TV stations didn't say a word

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(OT) Yoichi Masuzoe Is the New Governor of Tokyo, Thanks to Organized Votes from LDP and Komei/Soka Gakkai; Turnout 3rd Lowest in History

He should also be grateful for the Japan's mainstream media, from increasingly government-PR organ NHK to left-leaning Asahi Shinbun, for not reporting the various scandals that everyone in the media and the political class knew about during the election campaign and for their genuine, heart-felt effort to de-emphasize any nuclear issue to the point of not even showing the faces of the two former prime ministers as they campaigned on the anti-nuclear platform.

Looking at Asahi's site, it doesn't look like the paper will ever report Masuzoe's scandal, although suddenly the anti-nuclear movement is prominently mentioned.

From Asahi's Tokyo Gubernatorial Election page "Who is Mr. Masuzoe?", Masuzoe's prominent remarks as Asahi sees:

"LDP's draft constitution is too right-wing to receive broad support"

"Without redistribution, the gap [between the rich and the poor] will widen"

"What was Koizumi's postal reform?"

"Atomic Energy Agreement [to export nuclear power plant technologies] is OK"

"How does one spend first six years after retirement"

etc., etc., as if Masuzoe is a reasonable statesman.

Asahi, or for that matter, any Japanese mainstream media news outlet, never reported what the foreign press reported, and will never report, now that Masuzoe is installed as the governor, doing the Abe administration's bidding.

One of the most prominent remarks by Masuzoe appeared in UK's The Guardian and other foreign news outlets quoting AFP (2/7/2014):

In 1989, he told a men's magazine that it would not be proper to have women at the highest level of government because their menstrual cycle makes them irrational.

"Women are not normal when they are having a period … You can't possibly let them make critical decisions about the country [during their period] such as whether or not to go to war," he said.

For him to say so must be extremely distressful for one of his ex-wives, Ms. Satsuki Katayama, an LDP politician whose own party supported her ex-husband's candidacy. She reportedly suffered domestic violence during their short marriage, which she once described to a Japanese magazine as "simply terrifying".

Too much testosterone, or too many girlfriends, we don't know.

With the low turnout (46.14% including absentee ballots), there was not much at all that other candidates could do to counter the LDP/Komei/labor union votes, particularly those of Komei/Soka Gakkai (religious organization that founded Komei Party).

The most realistic anti-nuclear candidate was former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, but he and his supporters were bombarded with "negative" campaigns on the net (particularly social media) by the supporters of another supposedly anti-nuclear candidate, Kenji Utsunomiya, attorney who was backed by Social Democratic Party and Communist Party.

I put "negative" in quotation marks, as tweets I have seen almost always started with "positive" remarks about Hosokawa's candidacy: "It's great that he is running on the "beyond nuclear" platform, blah blah blah, BUT..."

Curiously, the words and sentences after this "BUT" were almost identical to what the Abe administration officials, right-wing think tanks supporting the administration, and mainstream media kept saying throughout the election campaign:

"BUT the governorship of Tokyo is so much more than just a "single issue" of beyond nuclear. There's public welfare, there's unemployment, there's support for working mothers and young people, there's TPP, there's Tokyo Olympic..."

The supporters of Mr. Utsunomiya say they will continue their long struggle toward a nuclear-free society, with the emphasis on "long".

What Hosokawa and Koizumi preached - immediate decision not to use nuclear energy any more - was too "soon", apparently.

As to whether Mr. Masuzoe can keep his governorship, probably. LDP holds 59 seats and Komei 23 in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. Together, they control 82 seats, or 65% of the total 127 seats in the Assembly. LDP and Komei will make sure Masuzoe's scandals remain non-issues, as long as Masuzoe does not deviate from their agendas.

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