Sudden Spike of Strong Support for Obama Was Just That: A Spike

on Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, which is calculated by subtracting "Strongly Disapprove" from "Strongly Approve". The number has been negative since July 2009, after the House passed the climate change bill.

Another poll shows the support for Obama at 44%, while 47% disapprove. The approval rate among independent voters is abysmal 27%.

My guess is that Americans don't want to be scolded all the time on just about everything by the Nanny-in-Chief, as this Politico article points out ...

(Obama always sounds to me like an irritated middle school principal, new to the job, who is puzzled why his students aren't behaving the way he thinks they should.)

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Obama Support Shoots Up On War Prep in Middle East

I could be wrong, but that's what I think.

Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll for today (February 1, 2010) shows quite an anomaly. The gap between "strongly approve" and "strongly disapprove", which was in negative high teens, narrowed over the weekend to a mere -4.

"Strongly disapprove" percentage hasn't changed much, around 40%. It is "strongly approve", which jumped from Friday's 25% to 35%. That's a 40% jump in "strongly approve" category.

Also, there is hardly a change in "total approve" and "total disapprove". The sudden surge in "strongly approve", therefore, must have come from the Obama supporters who already approve of the president's handling of his job - i.e. switching from "approve" to "strongly approve" over the weekend. There had to be a trigger for such an abnormal move.

What changed from Friday to Monday? Have you read any cheerful news that makes you want to enthusiastically support the president?

It cannot be the $3.83 trillion budget of his that was unveiled this morning, with gaping $1.6 trillion deficit for yet another year.

The only significant news that I can think of over the weekend is this:

US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles (1/31/2010 Guardian UK), and
China, Iran Spur U.S. to Develop Air-Sea Battle Plan (2/1/2010 Bloomberg)

If this news was a trigger for the sudden surge of strong support for Obama, it could only come from people who highly approve of more aggressive stance and action by the U.S. military around the world, particularly in the Middle East, whether they are Democrats or Republicans or Independents.

It seems neoconservatives (here's one) are alive and well, after all.

To protect "our allies". Which one? Pick your country and cheer.

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Technical Analysis of Presidential Approval Rating Chart

If I am to apply technical analysis of stocks to Presidential Job Approval number of likely voters as published by Rasmussen Report, here's what I see.

A declining trend line and inability of the index to recapture the trend line:

A steady decline from the January high. Almost a inverse correlation to the stock market move so far, and in sync with the decline of U.S. dollar. In late May, there were a few attempts to regain and surpass this trend line, but they were unsuccessful. But those failures were to be expected, because, as you can see just prior to those attempts, there was a rising wedge formation in the downtrend (bearish). So, sure enough, after failed attempts, the index resumed the downward trend.

After impulsive low (dipping to 45%) sometime in late August-early September, the index has found the range between 48% and 52%. But again, a weak attempt to regain and surpass the downward trend line was unsuccessful (red arrow in the chart), and the index has recently dropped down below 50% and is oscillating in a very tight range. If I could superimpose the bollinger band, the band would be very narrow, indicating a very low volatility.

A break seems imminent. It could be up, it could be down. We have to keep an open mind. If it is up, the first target is the trend line at 52% or so. If that happens, and if it is to be a trend change, the index has to break above it in a convincing manner. If it is down from here and now, it can threaten to break 40%. If it first goes up near the trend line and then goes down, the drop may still be to the low 40s if the previous two downtrends are any indication. Trend is your friend until it isn't, as many swing traders would say.

Potential trigger for the move: passage of House health care "reform" bill. (The decline in June may have been triggered by the passsage of House climate bill.)

Also, if the stock market declines sharply from here (trigger: 3rd Quarter GDP number tomorrow) and U.S. dollar appreciates sharply from here, the job approval index may recapture the trend line and surpass it, marking a definite trend change.


Some of you may get indignant, even offended, to analyze the presidential poll number as if it were a stock. But come to think about it, it's all about sentiment, poll and stock.

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Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for 8/24/09

On the bright side, it has improved from yesterday (-14).

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