Showing posts with label Ministry of Education. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ministry of Education. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

#Radioactive Strontium Was Detected in Monthly Fallout As Late As November Last Year in Chiba, Ibaraki, Ministry of Education's Data Shows


But the Ministry of Education (MEXT) doesn't think the strontium-90 fallout after May last year was of Fukushima origin.

Following up on the post about strontium-90 fallout last year that MEXT (Ministry of Education and Science) announced on July 24 this year, I found some interesting data in the Japan Chemical Analysis Center where I created the chart plotting the Sr-90 fallout for the past 50 years or so in Japan (reproduced here).

The 2011 monthly fallout data for strontium-90 at the Japan Chemical Analysis Center is easier to see than the MEXT PDF file pages (they are the same data). As I was browsing through the search result, I started to wonder:

When was the last month that strontium-90 was detected in the fallout for these ten prefectures?

So here it is, from the search result at the Japan Chemical Analysis Center's website, the last date when strontium-90 was detected in the monthly fallout in the cities/prefectures in Tohoku and Kanto in 2011:

Aomori City, Aomori: March 31
Morioka City, Iwate: September 10
Akita City, Akita: July 1
Yamagata City, Yamagata: July 1
Hitachinaka City, Ibaraki: November 1
Utsunomiya City, Tochigi: August 1
Maebashi City, Gunma: June 1
Saitama City (Sakura-ku), Saitama: August 1
Ichihara City, Chiba: November 1
Chiba City (Inage-ku), Chiba: November 1

Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo: August 1
Chigasaki City, Kanagawa: June 30


Of these results, MEXT doesn't seem to think the detection in Aomori had anything to do with the Fukushima nuclear accident, as the prefecture is excluded from the list by MEXT in the press release (see my previous post for the MEXT list). In addition, MEXT seems to think the fallout after the first two to three months of the accident (March through May, 2011) is due not to the Fukushima accident but to the past atmospheric nuclear testing because the measured amount did not exceed the amount prior to the Fukushima accident.

Outside Kanto and Tohoku regions, there are occasional detection of strontium-90 in:

Niigata City (Nishi-ku), Niigata: May 2
Imizu City, Toyama: April 1
Kakamigahara City, Gifu: July 1
Shizuoka City (Aoi-ku), Shizuoka: August 1
Yokkaichi City, Mie: May 2
Kyoto City (Fushimi-ku), Kyoto: April 1
Wakayama City, Wakayama: November 1
Okayama City (Minami-ku), Okayama: April 1
Ishii-cho (Myozai-gun), Tokushima: April 1
Takamatsu City, Kagawa: April 1
Matsuyama City, Ehime: April 1
Kochi City, Kochi: April 1


Likewise, none of the detections above is considered by MEXT as the result of the Fukushima accident.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Now They Tell Us: Ministry of Education Says Strontium-90 of #Fukushima Origin Found in 10 Prefectures


It took about 15 to 16 months for the Ministry of Education and Science or MEXT (the very name is a joke at this point) to announce radioactive strontium (Sr-90) was widely dispersed from the broken reactors at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant last year in 10 prefectures in Kanto and Tohoku, to the levels last seen in the Chernobyl accident.

Caveat is that it excludes Fukushima and Miyagi, probably the two most contaminated with radioactive fallout from the Fukushima accident. MEXT's excuse is that the stations in these prefectures have been damaged by the earthquake/tsunami.

From the press release by Ministry of Education and Science on July 24, 2012, "Analysis of Strontium-90 in the monthly environmental radioactivity levels (fallout)" (in Japanese; labels added by me):


Asahi Shinbun has a chart that tries to put these numbers in perspective. The bump this time looks slightly bigger than the one after the Chernobyl accident. But Asahi, either in its scientific illiteracy or on purpose to minimize the latest bump, uses the normal scale on the Y-axis instead of a log scale which would make it easier to discern the fluctuations in smaller numbers:


Looking for a historical chart on a log scale, I went to the site maintained by the Japan Chemical Analysis Center. I searched the database, and the 2011 data is already in the database. Here's the chart I created using the graph function at the site. I added the thin red line later to compare the 2011 level with that after the Chernobyl accident. It does look it is ever so slightly higher. The chart is a log scale, and the data is from all prefectures:


I wonder what the levels would be if Fukushima and Miyagi's data were to be added. Back to the level during the atmospheric nuclear testing? Or would it exceed that level?

Monday, June 18, 2012

(Now They Tell Us) "Miscommunication" Prevented Radiation Monitoring on March 12 Last Year


The article that appeared in Asahi Shinbun on February 24 this year says the Self Defense Force made one of their helicopter available for the government to conduct an aerial survey of radiation in the early afternoon of March 12, 2011, before the Reactor 1 building blew out at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant.

From what I gather from the article, the timeline was something like this:

  1. Sometime in the morning on March 12, 2011, Ministry of Education and Science asked for a SDF helicopter to be used for radiation monitoring.

  2. Ministry of Defense agreed, and sent one medium-size helicopter at 11:10AM from its base in Sendai, Miyagi that had been used for disaster relief to Rokkasho-mura, where the Nuclear Safety Technology Center staff were supposed to be waiting.

  3. The helicopter landed in the meeting place (a park in Rokkasho-mura) at 1PM, but there was no one waiting for the helicopter. So it took off at 1:10PM.

  4. The Nuclear Safety Technology Center in Rokkasho-mura received the instruction from the Ministry of Education at 1:30PM. Two people went to the meeting place, and waited for the SDF helicopter to show up for one hour from 2:40PM.

  5. The center assumed the SDF heli was busy doing the disaster relief, and decided to drive to Fukushima the next day (March 13) at 9AM.

  6. The aerial radiation survey was then scheduled on March 15, but that was canceled because of the information that "Reactor 4 blew up".

  7. The aerial survey wasn't carried out until March 25.


The Nuclear Safety Technology Center's Rokkasho-mura branch had the staff and the equipment to conduct aerial radiation surveys.

What is wrong with this picture?

First, it confirms that the Ministry of Education and Science knew the radiation from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant was leaking in the morning of March 12, 2011.

Second, neither the SDF nor the Nuclear Safety Technology Center bothered to try to contact each other when there was no one at the meeting place (Rokkasho-mura park), or when there was no helicopter. I doubt that they had a direct means of communication, but the SDF helicopter pilot could have contacted the base who could have contacted the SDF headquarters/Ministry of Defense who could have contacted the Ministry of Education.

The Asahi article specifically says that the head of the Radiation group at the Emergency Response Center (ERC) under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry was a bureaucrat on assignment from the Ministry of Education. The Ministry of Education blames the ERC of course, saying "It was the ERC under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry who proposed an aerial [radiation] monitoring. It was the ERC who coordinated with the Ministry of Defense. We immediately conveyed the ERC messages to the Nuclear Safety Technology Center."

Third, Asahi didn't report it until February this year.

Fourth, I managed to miss the news when it appeared in February this year.

The US Department of Energy and the US military were conducting the aerial survey using Global Hawk drones from March 17 to 19 last year, and they SHARED the results with the Japanese government. The Japanese government sat on it. Asahi Shinbun first reported it in March 24 last year, and it just reported the news again on June 18 this year.

According to the June 18 article, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs received the fax from the US showing the contamination map created from the actual data collected by Global Hawk drones via the US Embassy in Tokyo on March 18 and 20 last year. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Asahi that it immediately forwarded the fax to the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency and the Ministry of Education. NISA and the Ministry of Education both sat on it. Probably because it came from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. What does the Ministry of Foreign Affairs know anything about radiation? Right?

(It is also possible that "immediate" in the minds of the officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was "several hours later" in a reality-based world.)

Moreover, Mainichi Daily (English paper) reported on March 19 last year that the Japanese government was in possession of near-real time video footage of Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant taken from Global Hawk, with the permission from the US to release to the general public. The Japanese government sat on it. I think it is still sitting on it.

Japan was the worst possible place for a major nuclear accident to occur - bureaucracy that plays bureaucracy in an extreme emergency, politicians who cannot lead in an extreme emergency, and the populace who cannot even properly "panic" in an extreme emergency.

Monday, April 2, 2012

WSPEEDI Simulation Showed 10 Terabecquerels/Hour Iodine-131 in Chiba on March 15 Last Year, Data Still Not Disclosed

10 terabequerels = 10,000,000,000,000 becquerels.

The system also calculated the amount of radioactive cesium to be 1 terabecquerels/hour each for cesium-134 and cesium 137. And the Japanese government is still sitting on the data.

WSPEEDI simulation system can predict the dispersion of radioactive materials in the hemisphere, in 3D.

From what Jiji Tsushin reports, the WSPEEDI simulation was done on March 15 upon request from the Ministry of Education and Science. For whatever reason, the Ministry decided to not announce it (for that matter, not let anyone know about it, till April 3, 2012).

On the very next day, on March 16, the Ministry announced that SPEEDI and WSPEEDI would now be the responsibilities of the Nuclear Safety Commission, and instructed the Japan Atomic Energy Agency to send the data to the Commission, who either sat on it or didn't even know they were now in charge of SPEEDI/WSPEEDI.

There is another interesting bit of information in the Jiji article below. The simulation was ordered by the Ministry of Education, and one of the parameters was that radioactive materials were released at about 9PM on March 14, 2011. That's about the time (9:18PM to be exact) when 2 safety relief valves were opened in Reactor 2, probably releasing a large amount of radioactive materials through a breach in the Suppression Chamber, according to the research paper by Fumiya Tanabe of Sociotechnical Systems Safety Research Institute.

If that's the case, the government must have known that the Reactor 2 Suppression Chamber had already failed, and opening the safety relief valves would release a large amount of radioactive materials from the breach. So they ordered the WSPEEDI simulation specifying the time of the release at 9PM on March 14.

Jiji Tsushin (4/3/2012):

千葉で「ヨウ素10兆ベクレル」未公表=昨年3月、世界版SPEEDI試算

WSPEEDI Simulation last March: 10 terabecquerels[/hour] of radioactive iodine in Chiba, data not disclosed yet

 東京電力福島第1原発事故で、昨年3月15日、放射性物質の拡散予測データ「世界版SPEEDI」の試算結果で、千葉市内でヨウ素の濃度が毎時10兆ベクレルという高い値が出ていたにもかかわらず、文部科学省と原子力安全委員会の間で十分な連携が取られず、現在も公表されていないことが3日、分かった。

On March 15 last year after the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident started, the WSPEEDI simulation of the dispersion of radioactive materials predicted the very high density for radioactive iodine in Chiba City in Chiba, at 10 terabequerels per hour. However, there was no effective communication between the Ministry of Education and Science and the Nuclear Safety Commission, and the data has still not been disclosed.

 文科省や安全委によると、世界版SPEEDIは放出される放射性物質の拡散状況を半地球規模で予測するシステム。日本原子力研究開発機構が同システムを運用しており、昨年3月も文科省の依頼を受け、試算を行っていた。

According to the Ministry of Education and the Nuclear Safety Commission, the WSPEEDI system is capable of simulating the dispersion of radioactive materials emitted on a hemispheric scale. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) operates the system, and it was conducting the calculations upon request from the Ministry of Education in March last year.

 それによると、福島第1原発から昨年3月14日午後9時ごろに放出された放射性物質が拡散した結果、千葉市内で同15日午前6~7時、ヨウ素の濃度は毎時10兆ベクレル、セシウム134、137もそれぞれ同1兆ベクレルと推計された。

According to the calculations, as the result of radioactive materials released from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant at about 9PM on March 14, 2011 and dispersed, Chiba City would have 10 terabequerels/hour radioactive iodine (I-131) between 6AM and 7AM, and 1 terabequerel/hour of cesium-134 and 1 terabequerel/hour of cesium-137.

 この試算データの評価について、文科省は安全委の担当と判断し、同16日に安全委へデータを送るよう同機構に指示した。同機構はメールに添付して送信したが、安全委は重要情報と認識せず、放置したという。同様にデータを受け取っていた文科省も、安全委に公表するよう連絡しなかった。

The Ministry of Education then decided that the Nuclear Safety Commission should be in charge of evaluating this data, and instructed JAEA to send the data to the Nuclear Safety Commission on the next day, March 16. JAEA sent the data as email attachments to the Nuclear Safety Commission, but the Commission didn't see the data as important, and didn't do anything. The Ministry of Education, who had received the data, did not contact the Commission and tell them the data should be made public.

I think the Ministry of Education got scared, seeing the data.

They didn't want to be the one to handle such "hot" data. So they passed it on to the Nuclear Safety Commission under Dr. Haruki Madarame, who was apparently so overwhelmed by the nuclear disaster and missing sleep that he doesn't even remember what he was doing or saying in the first 1 week of the accident.

What a luck that Japan had, having these people in the government.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Radioactive Fallout in Futaba-machi, Fukushima Rose in February 2012

At 6PM on Friday March 30, 2012, the Ministry of Education and Science (MEXT) released the measurement of radioactive fallout in prefectures in Japan for the month of February 2012 (here's the link).

The fallout measured in Futaba-machi, Fukushima has increased by more than 70% over the January figure to 33,300 megabecquerels/square kilometer (or 33,300 becquerels/square meter):

MEXT is in the process of reorganizing their website, changing the links to the past data. It has screws up my bookmarks.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Radioactive Fallout in Futaba-machi, Fukushima in January 2012: 19,120 MBq/Square Kilometer

The Ministry of Education and Science released the data on radioactive fallout by prefecture in January 2012, on March 23.

For Fukushima Prefecture, it is measured in Futaba-machi, where Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant is located. The measurement for the month of January, 2012 was:

Cs-134: 8,020 Mbq (megabecquerels)/km2
Cs-137: 11,100 MBq/km2
Total cesium: 19,120 MBq/km2

The measurement in Fukushima in Futaba-machi started in September 2011. From September to November, the numbers were in 4 digits. The fallout amount jumped in December, as you see in the table below (created from the data at MEXT website):

There was a similar jump, albeit much smaller, in the fallout measured in Fukushima City starting December 2011. The increase in Fukushima City has been attributed to winds blowing the dusts. (FYI, here's the latest fallout data for Fukushima City.)

West of Shizuoka, it's all ND. Miyagi is supposed to have started measuring the fallout in March this year.

From MEXT announcement on March 23, 2012, "Reading of environmental radioactivity level by prefecture (Fallout)(January, 2012)"

Prefecture City Fallout#
I-131 Cs-134 Cs-137 Other detected nuclides
1 Hokkaido Sapporo ND ND ND

2 Aomori Aomori ND ND ND

3 Iwate Morioka ND 1.6 2.0

4 Miyagi - - -

5 Akita Akita ND 0.069 0.086

6 Yamagata Yamagata ND 3.0 3.9

7 Fukushima Futaba ND 8020 11100

8 Ibaraki Hitachinaka ND 15 18

9 Tochigi Utsunomiya ND 16 20

10 Gunma Maebashi ND 3.3 4.1

11 Saitama Saitama ND 7.6 9.8

12 Chiba Ichihara ND 7.1 11

13 Tokyo Shinjuku ND 8.9 11

14 Kanagawa Chigasaki ND 2.6 3.2

15 Niigata Niigata ND 0.084 0.087

16 Toyama Imizu ND ND ND

17 Ishikawa Kanazawa ND 0.068 0.090

18 Fukui Fukui ND ND ND

19 Yamanashi Kofu ND 0.41 0.54

20 Nagano Nagano ND 1.3 1.6

21 Gifu Kakamigahara ND ND ND

22 Shizuoka Shizuoka ND 0.34 0.51

23 Aichi Nagoya ND ND ND

24 Mie Yokkaichi ND ND ND

25 Shiga Otsu ND ND ND

26 Kyoto Kyoto ND ND ND

27 Osaka Osaka ND ND ND

28 Hyogo Kobe ND ND ND

29 Nara Nara ND ND ND

30 Wakayama Wakayama ND ND ND

31 Tottori Touhaku ND ND ND

32 Shimane Matsue ND ND ND

33 Okayama Okayama ND ND ND

34 Hiroshima Hiroshima ND ND ND

35 Yamaguchi Yamaguchi ND ND ND

36 Tokushima Myozai ND ND ND

37 Kagawa Takamatsu ND ND ND

38 Ehime Matsuyama ND ND ND

39 Kochi Kochi ND ND ND

40 Fukuoka Dazaifu ND ND ND

41 Saga Saga ND ND ND

42 Nagasaki Omura ND ND ND

43 Kumamoto Uto ND ND ND

44 Oita Oita ND ND ND

45 Miyazaki Miyazaki ND ND ND

46 Kagoshima Kagoshima ND ND ND

47 Okinawa Uruma ND ND ND

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Ministry of Education Radiation Council's Official Position: No Need for Special Standard for Food for Infants

Not surprising at all coming from the Ministry of Education, who declared 20 millisieverts per year external radiation exposure for school children would be safe and acceptable.

The Radiation Council, the organization under the Ministry of Education and Science who officially endorses the new radiation standards for foods, has already expressed its dismay on stricter standards as harming the producers. It has just made it "official".

In an unusual "opinion", the Council, staffed with nuclear industry insiders and nuclear and radiation researchers, has said the lower safety standards for infants are unnecessary, even though the Council will go along with it.

Which means, perhaps, the new safety standards will be full of "exceptions", not just beef and rice, rendering the new standards as good as the old. Not to mention the local governments may not even possess or have access to the detectors with much lower detection limits. Maybe the cheapest way to solve the conundrum is going to be the renewed PR campaign that everything sold in the market is safe.

From Jiji Tsushin (2/16/2012):

乳幼児食品基準「不要」と意見=セシウム100ベクレルで「配慮十分」-放射線審

Radiation Council: Food safety standard for infants "unnecessary", 100 Bq/kg radioactive cesium limit "sufficient consideration"

 食品に含まれる放射性セシウムの新たな規制値案について、厚生労働省から諮問を受けた文部科学省放射線審議会が16日開かれ、1キロ当たり50ベクレルとした「乳児用食品」や「牛乳」の基準について、「特別の規格基準値を設けなくても、子どもへの配慮は既に十分なされた」などとする意見が示された。

The Radiation Council of the Ministry of Education and Science was held on February 16 to discuss the new safety standards for radioactive cesium which had been submitted by the Ministry of Health and Labor for deliberation in the Council. The opinion was expressed that "there is already sufficient consideration for children even without the special safety standard", which is to be 50 becquerels/kg for "food for infants" and "milk".

 放射性物質による被ばくが懸念されている子どもへの特別な基準は不要とするもので、消費者や保護者から批判の声が上がる可能性もある。

This [formal] opinion states that there is no need for a special standard for children for whom the radiation exposure is feared from ingesting radioactive materials. It is possible that consumers and parents may criticize the Council [over the opinion].

 厚労省の新規制値案では、食事による被ばく線量の上限を年1ミリシーベルトと以前より厳しく設定。穀類や肉、野菜など「一般食品」に含まれるセシウムの規制値は1キロ当たり100ベクレル、新設される「乳児用食品」や「牛乳」は同50ベクレルなどとし、4月から導入するとしていた。これに対し、放射線審議会の意見では、1キロ当たり100ベクレルの基準で、1歳未満を含む子どもの年間被ばく線量が1ミリシーベルト以下に抑えることが十分可能なものになっていると指摘している。

In the new safety standard from the Ministry of Health and Labor, the annual internal radiation exposure limit will be set at 1 millisievert, which is stricter than the existing limit [5 millisievert]. For "food for general consumption" like grains, meat, and vegetables, the safety limit for radioactive cesium will be 100 becquerels/kg. For "food for infants" and "milk", the safety limit will be 50 becquerels/kg. The new standards are to be introduced in April. However, in the opinion of the Radiation Council, the 100 becquerels/kg standard is already sufficient to keep the annual radiation exposure for children including infants less than 1 year old to less than 1 millisievert.

The first sentence of the last paragraph is not exactly true. 1 millisievert annual limit from internal radiation exposure from food is only about radioactive cesium.

The current provisional safety limit for radioactive cesium, 500 Bq/kg, would result in maximum 5 millisieverts annual internal radiation exposure from food, which the media started to report only toward the end of last year to the surprise of many in Japan. (My Japanese blog had written about it in April last year, but not many people were reading my blog back then.)

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Japan's Ministry of Education Radiation Council: No Need to Have Stricter Standard for Radiation for Food for Infants

Because "we have to make sure producers are not inconvenienced".

The Radiation Council of the Ministry of Education and Science issued its response after deliberating on the new safety standard for radioactive cesium in food submitted by the Ministry of Health and Labor.

First, from Mainichi Shinbun (2/2/2012):

セシウム新基準値:乳児用食品100ベクレルに…答申案

Report on new standard for radioactive cesium: 100 becquerels/kg for infant food

 厚生労働省の諮問を受け、食品の放射性セシウムの新基準値案を審議していた文部科学省の放射線審議会(会長・丹羽太貫京都大名誉教授)は2日、乳児用食品と牛乳について、1キロあたり50ベクレルを100ベクレルに緩めてもよいとする答申案をまとめた。次回に最終案を厚労省に答申する。

The Radiation Council of the Ministry of Education and Science has been deliberating on the new safety standards for radioactive cesium in food set by the Ministry of Health and Labor. On February 2, the council compiled its report that said it would be OK to loosen the standards for food and milk for infants from 50 becquerels/kg to 100 becquerels/kg. In the next meeting, the council will submit its final report to the Ministry of Health and Labor.

 審議会では「乳児も含めどの年齢層でも、1キロあたり100ベクレルの食品を摂取し続けても、年間被ばく限度の1ミリシーベルト以内に収まる」との意見が大勢を占め、子供の健康は十分に守られるとの見解で一致した。新基準値案は農漁業生産者に厳しすぎ、被災地の復興にも影響を与える可能性があるとの意見も出た。答申案には「基準値の決定にさまざまな関係者が関与すべきだ」と記された。

The majority of the council expressed the view that "for all age groups including infants, the annual [internal] radiation exposure would be within 1 millisievert even if they continue to consume food with 100 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium", and all agreed that the health of children would be well protected. Some said the new standards would be too harsh for fishermen and farmers, and the standards might negatively affect the recovery of the disaster-affected areas. The council's report also says "all stakeholders should participate in deciding the new standards".

厚労省は昨年12月、穀類500ベクレルなど今の暫定規制値を見直し、乳児用食品50ベクレル▽牛乳50ベクレル▽一般食品100ベクレルなどの新基準値案を発表。放射線審議会の答申や国民の意見募集を経て新基準値を決め、4月から施行する。

In December, the Ministry of Health and Labor revised the existing provisional safety standard of 500 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium and prepared the new standards of 50 becquerels/kg for infant food, 50 becquerels/kg for milk, and 100 becquerels/kg for other food items. The new standards will be officially decided after the Radiation Council's deliberation and comments from the public and enforced starting April.

Asahi Shinbun on the same subject has this additional information about who else the Radiation Council cares about - entities that do the radiation testing.

4月からの運用にあたって、検査が混乱したり生産者に影響が出たりしないよう、配慮を求める方針だ

[The council] will ask for considerations in using the new standard in April so that there are no confusions in testing and no negative effect on the producers.

年間1ミリシーベルト以下に抑える上で、乳児用食品などの基準を特別に設けなくても、一般食品の基準で子どもの健康に十分配慮されていると指摘。厳しい設定の根拠に疑問を投げかけ、被災地の食生活や産業などへの影響を懸念する。

To limit the annual radiation exposure to 1 millisievert and below, [the council] points out that the general food standard [of 100 becquerels/kg] is amply safe for the children's health without setting a special standard for food for infants. The council questions the basis for the stricter standard, and worries about the negative effect on what people eat in the disaster-affected areas and on the industries there.

No need to treat infants and toddlers differently when it comes to radioactive materials in food. 100 becquerels/kg radioactive cesium is safe enough for everyone. March on, brave little soldiers.

By the way, the annual radiation exposure they are talking about here is "internal" exposure in addition to the natural background internal exposure from ingesting food. It doesn't even include extra internal radiation from inhaling radioactive materials, and does not include external radiation exposure.

Public comments count nothing, as people in Japan are still finding out. It is to give them an illusion that what they have is democracy. Public meetings, public comments are the formalities only for the power that be to say "See, we listen to the citizens because we hold these meetings and solicit comments from the citizens."

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

"Now They Tell Us" Series: Radioactive Cesium Fallout in Fukushima from March to June Was 6.83 Million Becquerels

(UPDATE) The Ministry's other release says the measurement in Fukushima was done in July, therefore no detection of iodine-131 or any other short-lived nuclides. The Ministry sat on the data for only 5 months then.

===========================================


or 47 times as much as all the 45 prefectures (excluding Fukushima and Miyagi) combined.

Or 145 million times as much as the pre-accident annual number for Fukushima, in half a month.

It took only 9 months for the Ministry of Education and Science to finally disclose the number for Fukushima Prefecture. The Ministry is yet to say anything about Miyagi Prefecture.

The ostensible reason for not disclosing the numbers for Fukushima and Miyagi has been that the measuring stations got damaged by the earthquake. Well, by releasing the data, albeit very late, the Ministry makes it rather clear that the measuring station in Fukushima was just fine, and it had the data.

Still, the number is only for radioactive cesium (134 and 137). No word about radioactive iodine, or about any other nuclide.

From Asahi Shinbun (12/14/2011):

東京電力福島第一原発の事故で大気中に放出された放射性セシウムについて、文部科学省は14日、事故後4カ月間で福島県に降った積算値は1平方メートルあたり683万ベクレルだったと発表した。文科省は先月、宮城、福島を除く45都道府県の積算値を発表したが、最も多かった茨城県(4万801ベクレル)の168倍で、45都道府県の合計値(14万4446ベクレル)の47倍に相当する。

Regarding the radioactive cesium that has been released into the atmosphere as the result of the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident, the Ministry of Education and Science announced on December 14 that the cumulative amount of radioactive cesium fallout in 4 months after the accident in Fukushima Prefecture was 6.83 million becquerels/square meter. The Ministry announced the cumulative amounts of radioactive cesium fallout for the 45 prefectures last month, excluding Fukushima and Miyagi. The amount in Fukushima is 168 times as much as that in Ibaraki Prefecture (40,801 becquerels) which had the highest amount among the 45 prefectures, and 47 times as much as the amount for the 45 prefectures combined (144,446 becquerels).

 各地の衛生研究所などで容器にたまったちりからセシウム134と137を測定した3~6月の積算値。福島県は震災の影響で分析が遅れていた。測定地は第一原発のある大熊町。683万6050ベクレルのうち94%が3月に集中しており事故直後の深刻さがうかがえる。事故前にも大気圏内核実験による降下物などがあるが、福島県の09年度の積算値は0.044ベクレル。

The numbers are the cumulative numbers, measuring cesium-134 and cesium-137 from the dusts collected in containers at institutes of public health throughout Japan from March to June. The analysis for Fukushima Prefecture was delayed because of the March 11 earthquake/tsunami. The measuring location was in Okuma-machi where Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant is located. Of the 6,836,050 becquerels that fell [between March and June], 94% fell during March, attesting to the severity of the situation right after the accident. There was nuclear fallout from the past atmospheric nuclear testing before the Fukushima accident, but the cumulative fallout for Fukushima for the year 2009 was 0.044 becquerel.

For the entire year of 2009, Fukushima had 0.044 becquerel of radioactive cesium fallout.

In March of 2011, it had over 6.4 million becquerels. That's 145 million times more than the pre-accident level for a year, in half a month.

The Ministry of Education and Science's press release on December 14 (Japanese only) simply states the reason for the disclosure now as "The results just came in", on top of page 2.

Aside from cesium-134 and cesium-137, the press release also states the numbers for tellurium-129, tellurium-129m, and cesium-136. For the 4 months period in Fukushima, they are:

  • tellurium-129: 528,936 becquerels/square meter

  • tellurium-129m: 2,042,500 becquerels/square meter

  • cesium-136: 247,000 becquerels/square meter (March only)

(The Ministry uses Mbecquerels/square kilometer.)

A smart move by the Ministry, I suppose, to disclose the worst number (in Fukushima) first before disclosing the number for Miyagi, which I suspect to be much higher than that of Ibaraki.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

"Trap of Prometheus" Series Part 2 - Resignation of a Researcher (3/4)

(Recap from my previous "Prometheus" post:)

----------------------------------------------------
Asahi Shinbun's "Trap of Prometheus" series is still on-going, and right now it's Part 3 about suppressing the scientific data. It continues to be an excellent article, and it continues to be printed on the "third page" (see my post on the Part 1 of the series).

I just finished reading the Part 2 "Resignation of a Researcher", which has 21 installments. Even though Asahi Shinbun is busy taking down the blog sites that compile all the series articles for convenient reading, they cannot suppress them all, and I read it on this blog.

In it, there is a very curious piece of information about SPEEDI simulation, the NISA and the PM's Office's decision to set the evacuation zone in concentric circles. In short,

  • The Ministry of Education had ordered the SPEEDI simulations from the beginning and knew exactly where to send the official to do the actual measurements in Namie-machi, Fukushima;

  • Not only the Ministry of Education ordered SPEEDI simulation calculations but also the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency ordered its own SPEEDI simulation calculations with much more accuracy;

  • NISA was setting the evacuation zone on March 11 evening based on the simulation;

  • NISA stopped their work as soon as the PM's Office, based on no credible information or agreed-on procedure, announced the concentric circle evacuation zones.

Reading the Part 2 of the series, it sure looks as if almost everything bad that happened afterwards could have been prevented if the politicians and bureaucrats on the initial (and crucial) 1st and 2nd days of the nuclear accident had acted to protect the public, which I think is their constitutional duty. Instead, they played games, a turf war as if this was just another ordinary day in Kasumigaseki.
----------------------------------------------------

In the Installment 11, we learned that the Ministry of Education knew exactly where to look for high radiation because it had SPEEDI simulation result, but it didn't bother to tell anyone about the radiation levels when the information would have made the difference. In the Installment 12, we learned that it was a surprise for the Ministry of Education when the PM's Office didn't follow the agreed-upon protocol to use SPEEDI and unilaterally issued an evacuation order in concentric circles.

In the Installment 13, we'll learn how the NISA was on the verge of coming up with the "correct" evacuation map that was not in concentric circles.

研究者の辞表(13)送られなかった167枚

Resignation of a Researcher (13) 167 simulation maps that were never sent

SPEEDIの予測データはどう流れたのだろうか。(=上地兼太郎朝日新聞記者)

How was the SPEEDI simulation data shared? (reporting by Kentaro Uechi)


震災から約4時間後の3月11日午後7時3分、国は原子力緊急事態宣言を出す。首相官邸に原子力災害対策本部ができた。

7:03PM on March 11, about 4 hours after the earthquake/tsunami. The national government declared nuclear emergency. The Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters was set up in the Prime Minister's Official Residence.

経済産業省の原子力安全・保安院は、対策本部の事務局を担う一方、同省別館3階に緊急時対応センター(ERC)を立ち上げた。他省庁からも人がかき集められた。

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry acted as the secretariat of the Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters. But at the same time, it also set up the Emergency Response Center (ERC) on the 3rd floor of the annex building of the Ministry. People from other ministries were also called in.

SPEEDIの予測は本来、文部科学省が原子力安全技術センターを使って1時間ごとに行う。出来た予測図は保安院にも送られるが、保安院は独自の予測も出そうとした。それに向け、同日夜には同センターのオペレーターをERCに入れた。

SPEEDI simulation is normally done every hour by the Nuclear Safety Technology Center under the direction of the Ministry of Education and Science. The simulation map is sent to NISA. But NISA wanted to do its own simulation, and invited an operator from the Nuclear Safety Technology Center to its ERC.

保安院が独自で行った1回目のSPEEDI予測は午後9時12分に出た。翌12日午前3時半に福島第一原発2号機でベント(排気)をした場合、放射性物質はどう拡散するかという予測だ。放射性物質は南東の太平洋へ飛ぶ結果が出た。

The 1st SPEEDI simulation result by NISA came out at 9:12PM. The simulation was about how radioactive materials would disperse if the vent was done on Reactor 2 of Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant at 3AM on March 12. The result showed that radioactive materials would be dispersed southeast over the Pacific Ocean.

12日午前1時12分に2回目の予測。今度は同時刻に1号機のベントを仮定した。これも海へ拡散していた。保安院は16日までに45回173枚の独自予測をはじき出した。

The 2nd simulation result by NISA was out at 1:12AM on March 12. This time, the assumption was the vent of Reactor 1 at 3AM. Again, radioactive materials would disperse over the ocean. By March 16, NISA would create its own 173 maps in 45 simulations.

保安院の予測の特徴は、様々な情報を集めて放射性物質の放出量を推測したことだ。放出量を1ベクレルと仮定した文部科学省に比べ、予測の精度は高かった。

What was unique about NISA's simulations was that they estimated the amount of radioactive materials that would be released, using various data. Unlike the simulations done by the Ministry of Education that used the unit emission (1 becquerels/hr), the accuracy of the NISA simulations was much higher.

官邸の地下には、各省実働部隊が詰めるオペレーションルームがある。保安院は課長補佐以下の職員数人をそこに出していた。保安院から予測図を受け取る専用端末も備(そな)えられていた。

There was an operation room in the basement of the Prime Minister's Official Residence where the working groups from various ministries were stationed. NISA had several officials (assistant manager class) there. The room was equipped with the dedicated terminal to receive the simulation maps from NISA.

官邸5階には首相の管直人ら災害対策本部の中枢が陣取っている。避難区域を決めたのはこの中枢であり、その決定にはSPEEDIの情報を参考にすることになっている。ということは、予測図は専用端末を経て5階まで運ばれていなければならなかった。しかし・・・。

The core members of the Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters including Prime Minister Naoto Kan remained on the 5th floor of the PM's Official Residence. It was this core members who decided the evacuation zone, and that decision was to be based on the SPEEDI information. Which means the simulation maps should have been received at the terminal [in the basement] and then carried to the 5th floor. But...

オペレーションルームの専用端末に送られたのは1,2回目の予測図だけ。保安院が独自で行ったSPEEDI予測のうち、43回167枚はERC内で止まっていた。

Only the 1st and the 2nd simulation maps were sent to the dedicated terminal in the operation room. Of all SPEEDI simulations that NISA did on its own, 167 maps from 43 simulations remained at [NISA's] ERC.

しかもプリントアウトして内閣官房の職員に渡したのは2回目の分だけだった。2回目の予測図はA4判で計3枚だが、そのうち何枚を渡したか、渡した後どうなったかも保安院は確認を取っていない。何故(なぜ)こんなことになったのか。

Worse, only the 2nd simulation maps were printed out and handed to an official of the Prime Minister's Office. There were three pages of maps for the 2nd simulation, but NISA does not know how many pages were handed to the official, or what happened to them afterwards. How did this happen?

Stay tuned for the last segment of this appalling saga of bureaucrats and politicians being bureaucrats and politicians (i.e. doing what they knew how, best) in the face of the grave nuclear accident.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

"Trap of Prometheus" Series Part 2 - Resignation of a Researcher (2/4)

(Recap from my previous "Prometheus" post:)

----------------------------------------------------
Asahi Shinbun's "Trap of Prometheus" series is still on-going, and right now it's Part 3 about suppressing the scientific data. It continues to be an excellent article, and it continues to be printed on the "third page" (see my post on the Part 1 of the series).

I just finished reading the Part 2 "Resignation of a Researcher", which has 21 installments. Even though Asahi Shinbun is busy taking down the blog sites that compile all the series articles for convenient reading, they cannot suppress them all, and I read it on this blog.

In it, there is a very curious piece of information about SPEEDI simulation, the NISA and the PM's Office's decision to set the evacuation zone in concentric circles. In short,

  • The Ministry of Education had ordered the SPEEDI simulations from the beginning and knew exactly where to send the official to do the actual measurements in Namie-machi, Fukushima;

  • Not only the Ministry of Education ordered SPEEDI simulation calculations but also the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency ordered its own SPEEDI simulation calculations with much more accuracy;

  • NISA was setting the evacuation zone on March 11 evening based on the simulation;

  • NISA stopped their work as soon as the PM's Office, based on no credible information or agreed-on procedure, announced the concentric circle evacuation zones.

Reading the Part 2 of the series, it sure looks as if almost everything bad that happened afterwards could have been prevented if the politicians and bureaucrats on the initial (and crucial) 1st and 2nd days of the nuclear accident had acted to protect the public, which I think is their constitutional duty. Instead, they played games, a turf war as if this was just another ordinary day in Kasumigaseki.
----------------------------------------------------

In the Installment 11, we learned that the Ministry of Education knew exactly where to look for high radiation because it had SPEEDI simulation result, but it didn't bother to tell anyone about the radiation levels when the information would have made the difference. In the next Installment 12 below, we'll see in more detail why the information wasn't shared.

研究者の辞表(12)いきなり同心円避難

Resignation of a Researcher (12) Suddenly, it was evacuation in concentric circles

3月15日、毎時330マイクロシーベルトの値が出る場所を、なぜピンポイントで指示できたのか。(=依光隆明朝日新聞記者)

Why was the Ministry of Education able to precisely identify the location that would measure 330 microsieverts/hour radiation on March 15? (reporting by Takaaki Yorimitsu)

東京・霞が関の文部科学省。時に身ぶり手ぶりを交えながら、科学技術・学術政策局次長の渡辺格(いたる)さん(53歳)説明する。「実は、単位放出のSPEEDIを使いました」。

The Ministry of Education and Science in Kasumigaseki, Tokyo. Itaru Watanabe (age 53), Senior Deputy Director-General, Science and Technology Policy Bureau talks with occasional gestures. "In fact, we used SPEEDI in unit emission mode."

SPEEDI(スピーディ)とは、放射能の影響を予測するシステムのことだ。放出された放射性物質がどう広がるのか。風向きや風速、地形を計算し、飛ぶ範囲を予測する。

SPEEDI is a simulation system to forecast the effect of radiation. It considers wind directions, wind speeds and topography and forecasts the dispersion of radioactive materials released.

放射性物質は同心円状には広がらず、汚染エリアは複数の突起を形成する。そのエリアをSPEEDIで予測し、迅速に住民を避難させなければならない。それが原子力防災の基本中の基本とされている。

Radioactive materials do not spread in concentric circles, and the area of contamination would take the shape with multiple protrusions. Forecast the shape of the contaminated area with SPEEDI and evacuate residents as quickly as possible - that is the fundamental principle of nuclear emergency preparedness.

予測の基(もと)になるのは、原発からの放出源情報だ。ところが今回の事故ではそれが入手できなかった。

The forecast would be based on the information from the nuclear plant as to how much radioactive materials are being emitted. That information was not available in this accident.

しかし、そういう事態でも仮の値を入力することで予測ができる。それが、1時間に1ベクレル放出したと仮定する「単位放出」で計算するやり方。渡辺さんはその手法で正確に高汚染地域を把握していた。

However, it is possible to make forecast by entering a formal [as opposed to actual] number. That is the "unit emission", which assumes 1 becquerel/hour emission. Using this method, Watanabe was able to correctly identify the area with high radiation contamination.

渡辺さんが特殊な手法を用いたわけではない。原子力安全委員会が定めた指針では、事故発生直後は放出量を正確に把握することが難しいため、単位放出または事前に設定した値で計算するとある。そうして計算した予測図形をもとに、監視を強化する方位や場所を割り出していく。

It is not that Watanabe used a special method. The guideline set by the Nuclear Safety Commission specifies that the simulation calculation is to be done by unit emission or by the predetermined number because it is difficult to know the precise amount of emission right after the accident. Based on the map thus calculated, the areas and the directions that will need increased monitoring are to be decided.

「単位放出で情報を流す、という点ではマニュアル通りでした。放出量が分からないときに単位放出を各関係者に配るというのがマニュアルになっていましたから」。

"It was exactly according to the manual, to provide information of the unit emission calculation. It was in the manual that the unit emission calculation was to be distributed to parties involved when the actual amount of emission was unknown."

マニュアルによると、配る先は一部の省庁と原子力安全委員会、福島県、そして現地対策本部。「実際に避難範囲を決める場合、SPEEDIを使ったのかどうか は文部科学省では分かりません。避難範囲を決めたのは文科省では無く、原子力対策本部ですから。今回は本来の使い方はされず、いきなり同心円状で避難の指示がなされた」。

According to the manual, the information was to be distributed to several government ministries and agencies, the Nuclear Safety Commission, Fukushima Prefecture, and the local countermeasures headquarters [in Fukushima]. "The Ministry of Education does not know whether the SPEEDI result was used in deciding the evacuation zones. The evacuation zones were decided not by the Ministry of Education but by the Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters. This time, the manual wasn't followed, and the order to evacuate in concentric circles was issued abruptly."

マニュアルでは文科省は情報を出すだけで、それを使って避難指示を出すのは原子力災害対策本部、つまり官邸だ。

According to that manual, the Ministry of Education would provide information, and using that information the Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters would issue evacuation orders. The Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters was the Prime Minster's Official Residence.

しかし、首相の管直人も、経済産業大臣の海江田万里も、官房長官の枝野幸男もSPEEDIを知らなかったと主張する。特に海江田と枝野は20日過ぎまで知らなかったと国会答弁している。いったいどうなっていたのか。

However, Prime Minister Kan, Minister of Economy and Industry Banri Kaieda, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano all insist that they didn't know about SPEEDI. In particular, Kaieda and Edano said in the Diet meeting that they didn't know about it until after March 20. What was going on?

(To be continued in the next posts.)

It sure looks like someone (or some people) couldn't resist playing "Sir Humphrey" in what may have been the biggest emergency situation that the country ever faced. And PM Kan, unlike the fictional PM Hacker, didn't care to know how to use the career bureaucrats.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

"Trap of Prometheus" Series Part 2 - Resignation of a Researcher: NISA Was About to Set Evacuation Zone Based on SPEEDI on March 11 Evening (1/4)

Asahi Shinbun's "Trap of Prometheus" series is still on-going, and right now it's Part 3 about suppressing the scientific data. It continues to be an excellent article, and it continues to be printed on the "third page" (see my post on the Part 1 of the series).

I just finished reading the Part 2 "Resignation of a Researcher", which has 21 installments. Even though Asahi Shinbun is busy taking down the blog sites that compile all the series articles for convenient reading, they cannot suppress them all, and I read it on this blog.

In it, there is a very curious piece of information about SPEEDI simulation, the NISA and the PM's Office's decision to set the evacuation zone in concentric circles. In short,

  • The Ministry of Education had ordered the SPEEDI simulations from the beginning and knew exactly where to send the official to do the actual measurements in Namie-machi, Fukushima;

  • Not only the Ministry of Education ordered SPEEDI simulation calculations but also the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency ordered its own SPEEDI simulation calculations with much more accuracy;

  • NISA was setting the evacuation zone on March 11 evening based on the simulation;

  • NISA stopped their work as soon as the PM's Office, based on no credible information or agreed-on procedure, announced the concentric circle evacuation zones.

Reading the Part 2 of the series, it sure looks as if almost everything bad that happened afterwards could have been prevented if the politicians and bureaucrats on the initial (and crucial) 1st and 2nd days of the nuclear accident had acted to protect the public, which I think is their constitutional duty. Instead, they played games, a turf war as if this was just another ordinary day in Kasumigaseki.

This post is my quick translation of the Installment 11. Installments 12, 13, and 14 will be in the next 3 posts.

研究者の辞表(11)ピンポイントの指示

"Resignation of a Researcher" (11) Instruction with pinpoint precision

放射線衛生学の研究者、木村真三(44)らが福島に入った3月15日は、朝6時すぎに福島第一原発の2号機が破損、大量の放射性物質が放出されていた。

Shinzo Kimura and others entered Fukushima on March 15. That day, Reactor 2 at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant was damaged at around 6AM and a large amount of radioactive materials were being released.

原発から5キロの場所には11日夜に国の現地対策本部ができていた。しかし14日夜には2号機の状態を懸念して撤退方針を決める。同日夜から撤退を始め、15日午後には原発から60キロ離れた福島県庁に退いた。

At a location 5 kilometers from the plant, the headquarters for nuclear disaster countermeasures was set up by the national government in the evening of March 11. However, in the evening of March 14, they decided to retreat out of fear of the condition of Reactor 2. The retreat started that night, and the headquarters was moved inside the Fukushima prefectural government building, 60 kilometers from the plant, by March 15 afternoon.

撤退組の一人、渡辺眞樹男(57)は福島県庁に移った後の15日夜に指示を受けた。「大変な事態になっている。測定に行ってくれ」

Makio Watanabe, one of the officials at the headquarters, received the instruction on March 15 evening at the Fukushima prefectural government building. "The situation is extremely serious. Go measure the radiation."

渡辺は文部科学省茨城原子力安全管理事務所から応援に来ていた。指示された場所は浪江町山間部の3カ所。ピンポイントだった。神奈川北原子力事務所の車 で現地に行き、午後9時ごろ放射線量を測る。数値を見て驚いた。3カ所とも高く、特に赤宇木(あこうぎ)は毎時330マイクロシーベルト。

Watanabe had been sent to the headquarters from the Ministry of Education's office for nuclear safety management in Ibaraki. He was instructed to go and measure at 3 locations in the mountainous area in Namie-machi. The instruction was pinpoint, very precise. He drove there, and start measuring the radiation at about 9PM. He was alarmed to see the numbers. All three locations had very high radiation, and Akogi District in Namie-machi measured 330 microsieverts/hour.

「いやもう、信じられなかった」と渡辺は振り返る。すぐ報告しようとしたが、携帯はつながらない。雨模様だったので衛星携帯も使えなかった。急いで川俣町の山木屋まで戻り、公衆電話から報告をした。戻る途中、点々と人家の明かりが見えた。まだ大勢の人が残っていた。

Looking back, Watanabe says "I just couldn't believe it." He wanted to report right away, but his cellphone didn't connect. He couldn't use his satelite phone because it was raining. He hastily drove back to Kawamata-machi, and used the public phone there to report. On the way back to Kawamata-machi, he saw lights in people's houses. There were still many people remaining [in Namie-machi].

「とにかく住民の方々に被曝(ひばく)をしてほしくなかった。線量が高いと報告し、早くこの線量を発表してください、とお願いをしました」

"I just didn't want the residents to get irradiated. I reported that the radiation levels were extremely high, and asked the headquarters please to make the radiation measurements public as soon as possible."

実はこのとき渡辺は防護服を着ていなかった。県庁への撤退が慌ただしかったため、防護服の類は現地本部に放棄していたからだ。

Watanabe wasn't even wearing the protective clothing. Since the retreat to the Fukushima prefectural government building was done so hastily that they left protective gear.

「不思議と自分のことは考えていないですよね。こんな時だからこそやらなきゃいけない、と」

"I didn't think about my safety at that time. I felt I had to do it."

必死の思いで渡辺が伝えた数値は、しかし住民避難に使われはしなかった。文科省は16日にその数値を発表したが、地区名は伏せたまま。浪江町に知らせる こともなかった。町は危険を認識せず、一帯に残る住民に伝えることもなかった。なにより官房長官は「直ちに人体に影響を与えるような数値ではない」と会見 で述べていた。

However, the numbers that Watanabe had measured at grave danger and reported were never used for evacuation of the residents. The Ministry of Education announced the numbers on March 16 but it didn't say exactly where. The Ministry never notified Namie-machi. Namie-machi didn't know the danger, and so it didn't inform the residents about the danger. More than anything else, the Chief Cabinet Secretary [Edano] kept saying in the press conference, "They are not the levels that would affect the body immediately."

それにしても、なぜ対策本部は高線量の場所をピンポイントで知っていたのか。渡辺は言う。「ポイントをどなたが決めて指示されたのか、私もいまだに分かりません」

Still, how come the headquarters knew the locations of high radiation with such precision? Watanabe says, "Who decided which point to measure and instructed me? I do not know even this day."

元をたどると、指示は文科の本省だった。根拠に使われたのはSPEEDI(緊急時迅速放射能影響予測システム)。同省は汚染の概要をつかんでいた。(依光隆明)

The reporter tracked down the source, and it was from the Ministry of Education in Tokyo. The instruction was based on SPEEDI, and the Ministry knew the extend of radiation contamination.

I remember the face of Yukio Edano in the press conferences in the early days of the accident. He was saying "No immediate effect". People were relieved. People even worried for his health, and told him to get some sleep. Then one day in mid April, there was a news clip of him visiting Fukushima (Minami Soma City), with protective clothing and a face mask. People ridiculed him at first, for it seemed to contradict his statement of "no immediate risk".


He knew. And he lied. And people know that now, albeit too late.

Monday, October 31, 2011

Ministry of Education Map on Tellurium-129m, Silver-110m in Soil in Fukushima

The Ministry of Education and Science announced on October 31 the "result" of the survey they did in June. Much like announcing the result in July (2PM on July 29, to be exact) of the survey they did in March about radioactive fallout in Tohoku and Kanto, where radioactive iodine, cesium tellurium and silver were found in abundance in Tokyo (see my post on August 1).

So, if tellurium and silver fell in Tokyo, it is very small wonder that they were in Fukushima soil within the 100-kilometer radius of Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant.

Maps from the Ministry's announcement on October 31 are as follows. The amounts of tellurium and silver have been adjusted to the amounts as of June 14. I re-oriented and enlarged the maps for easier viewing but the resolution is not that great.

Tellurium-129m, half life about 34 days (the unit is becquerels/square meter):


Silver-110m, half life about 250 days (becquerels/square meter):

Silver-110m probably came from melted control rods, and went all the way to Tokyo.

The announcement is NOT accompanied by the table that has actual measurements at these locations. But Mainichi Shinbun (10/31/2011) reports that the highest amount of tellurium-129m was found in Okuma-machi at 2.66 million becquerels/square meter.

The Ministry's fallback position of course is "they won't affect the health very much because the radiation from these nuclides is "small" compared to those from radioactive cesium.

Sure. They are shorter-life nuclides, which means radioactivity is stronger. Even if they simply pass through the body without accumulation, I would think they zap the body with radiation as they pass through. External exposure is another matter. I fearfully recall that many kindergarteners and elementary school pupils all over Tohoku and Kanto were made to plant rice with bare feet and hands back in April and May. (And they are made to dig up the sweet potatoes with bare hands now.)

What's interesting is the third map which plots the ratio of tellurium-129m to cesium-137. The tellurium-129m ratio is very pronounced south of Fuku-I nuke plant, toward Iwaki City and southern Ibaraki Prefecture:


Sunday, October 23, 2011

Ministry of Education's Quick Learning Curve on Kashiwa's Radioactive Dirt

First it was "it cannot be from Fukushima I Nuke Plant" when the radiation measured was 57.5 microsieverts/hour.

Then it was "it may be from Fukushima I Nuke Plant, and it may not be" when the density turned out to be 276,000 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium. But since the density was very high, the suspicion was voiced all around (including me) that someone secretly dumped the radioactive sludge or dirt, possibly from cleaning out his yard, onto that location.

The Ministry's current position: "It is highly likely that radioactive cesium is from Fukushima I Nuke Plant, and radioactive cesium has been condensed at that particular location because the storm drain nearby was broken."

So radioactive cesium from Fukushima I Nuke Plant has been naturally concentrated by elements, 200 kilometers away from the plant, to the density level on par with those found in Fukushima. The Kashiwa City's dirt contains almost as much radioactive cesium in the dirt in the location in Watari District (link is in Japanese) in Fukushima City where 300,000 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium was found (also near the drain).

Points from the Ministry's announcement on October 23, 2011 "Result of the investigation of Kashiwa City's location with high air radiation" (my translation, not the Ministry's):

On receiving the result of the soil analysis on October 22 where maximum 276,000 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium was detected, the Ministry sent two officials, along with three experts from Japan Atomic Energy Agency on October 23 to Kashiwa City to consult with the local officials in charge of radiation countermeasures.

The Ministry's survey of the location included measuring air radiation levels at the location and nearby, and investigating the surroundings to figure out what caused the high radiation level.

Survey result:

  • Maximum 2.0 microsieverts/hour 1 meter off the ground
  • Maximum 4.5 microsieverts/hour 50 centimeter off the ground
  • Maximum 15 microsieverts/hour on the ground

Typical air radiation levels in the surrounding area at 1 meter off the ground was 0.3 microsievert/hour.

A 50-centimeter wide breach was found in the side drain (30-centimeter deep) next to the location with the high air radiation. This breach was close to the spot where cesium-134 (half life 2 years) was detected. We therefore presume that the rainwater containing radioactive cesium that came from the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident flowed in from the breach in the side drain, and radioactive cesium was condensed and accumulated in the soil at that particular location.

Asahi Shinbun (10/23/2011) has the picture of the broken side drain.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Ministry of Education's Radiation Map for Tokyo and Kanagawa

"Radiation? What radiation?" must be the message from the Ministry which has been doing the aerial survey of radiation in Tohoku and Kanto.

They did Tokyo and Kanagawa from September 14 to 18, using one helicopter that flew 10 times over the area. The radiation detection device on board the helicopter measured gamma radiation from the radioactive materials deposited on the ground from 150 to 300 meters off the ground. The measurement of about 300 to 600 meters radius below the helicopter is then averaged out. Here's the report by the Ministry (PDF).

As far as I know, there is no plan for the national government to conduct the ground-level measurement outside Fukushima Prefecture.

First, let's take a look at Tokyo.

Air radiation level at 1 meter off the ground:

Many residents have been measuring the radiation on the ground level in Tokyo, so have many organizations. Their measurement suggests much lighter blue colors for the eastern most one-quarter of Tokyo.

Cesium-134 and-137 deposition:


And Kanagawa.

Air radiation level at 1 meter off the ground:


Cesium-134 and -137 deposition:

Yokohama residents must be laughing at the Ministry's map, after over 100,000 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium was detected on top of an apartment building.

What matters more in places like Tokyo and Kanagawa is the identification of hot spots and ultra-hot spots, which can only be done on the ground level. Measuring from the air and averaging out doesn't make sense, but then, that's how the government wants it done. It is not interested in details. The Tokyo Metropolitan government isn't interested in knowing the details either. Residents there are on their own.

The areas that have been mapped by the Ministry of Education so far:

Air radiation level at 1 meter off the ground:



Cesium-134 and -137 deposition:



Again, here's Professor Hayakawa's map:

Monday, October 3, 2011

#Radiation in Japan: Those Who Fled Fukushima in Panic Made a "Rational Decision", Says Government

The Ministry of Education's committee to discuss the compensation for Fukushima residents who evacuated from Fukushima on their own has decided to compensate those who fled Fukushima right after the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident because "to flee in a panic is rational". The committee has postponed the decision on the compensation for those who evacuated much later.

Never mind that it was the national government and the Fukushima prefectural government who were spreading baseless rumors of safety right after the accident. Too bad for the residents who were lulled by the soothing words of Dr. "Damashita" (deceitful) Yamashita and did not get the hell out. Or those who thought they were acting rationally by not panicking.

Well, as I say in my blog graphics above, never trust the government, never rely on the government.

From Mainichi Shinbun (10/4/2011):

東京電力福島第1原発事故のため自主避難した人たちの間で、賠償への「線引き」に困惑が広がっている。文部科学省の原子力損害賠償紛争審査会が先月、事故後1カ月程度の間に避難したケースには賠償を認める方針を固め、その後避難した人は「検討課題」と先送りにしたためだ。「避難は早い者勝ちだったの?」「汚染の実態が分かったのは最近なのに」。3日東京都内で開かれた集会には避難者ら約120人が集まり、線引きをなくすよう訴えた。

People who voluntarily evacuated from Fukushima are confused with the government's compensation scheme. Last month, the Ministry of Education's committee on nuclear accident damage arbitration decided to compensate people who evacuated within a month of the accident but delayed the decision on compensating people who evacuated afterward. "So are you now telling us we should have evacuated as soon as possible?" "It is only recently that we knew how bad the contamination was." About 120 people gathered in a meeting held in Tokyo on October 3, and appealed for the equal treatment.

「事故直後から不安で仕方がなかった。でも国や東電が『大丈夫』と言い続けてきたのを信じて残ったのに……」。福島市の主婦、菅野千景さん(46)は悔やむ。中1(13)と小2(7)の娘2人を連れて京都市の公務員住宅に自主避難したのは、8月末になってからだ。

"I was worried right from the beginning. But the national government and TEPCO kept saying "It's alright" and I believed them." Chikage Sugano, 46-year-old housewife from Fukushima City regrets. It was only at the end of August that she took two daughters, aged 13 and 7 to Kyoto City.

 自宅は原発から約60キロ。すぐに避難することも考えたが、マイホームのローンを抱え、夫と離れ離れの生活になることはためらわれた。中学入学を控える長女の心情も考えた。生まれ育った故郷・福島への愛着もあった。

Her home was about 60 kilometers from the plant. She thought of evacuating right away, but was hesitant because of the home loan and the uncertainty of being separated from her husband. She also did not want to hurt the feelings of her older daughter who was starting her junior high school. She had a strong attachment to Fukushima, where she was born and grew up.

 住んでいる地区の放射線量が比較的高いと知ったのは6月になってから。講演会や市民団体の集会に参加した。線量の数値や評価がこれまで聞いていた話とは違っていた。

In June, she learned that the district that she lived had a relatively high radiation level. She attended the lectures and gatherings by the citizens' groups. The radiation level and the evaluation of that level were different from what she had heard.

 自宅の線量を測ると、2階の子供部屋が毎時0・95マイクロシーベルト。平常時の屋外の20倍で、水ぶきしても数値は下がらない。娘たちには長袖にマスク姿で通学させる日々。「この状態が続くなら」と2学期の始まりに合わせた避難を決めた。

She measured the radiation level of her own home. The children's room on the second floor measured 0.95 microsievert/hour. It was 20 times as high as the normal [before the accident] outdoor radiation level. She cleaned the house with moistened cloth but the radiation level didn't go down. She made her daughters wear long-sleeved shirts and masks to go to school. They decided to evacuate before the 2nd semester at school.

 審査会は先月21日、自主避難者への賠償に関し、避難時期を「事故当初」と「一定期間後」の二つに区切って議論することを決めた。「事故当初」は「恐怖心から避難するのは合理的」として賠償対象とすることで一致。区切りについては、政府が計画的避難区域などの指定を発表した4月11日か、指定日の同22日が検討されている。

On September 21, the committee decided to categorize the voluntary evacuees into two groups - those who evacuated "right after the accident", and those who evacuated "after certain period of time". The committee was unanimous in deciding to compensate those who evacuate "right after the accident" because "it was rational [or it made sense] to evacuate out of fear". As to what time period would be considered "right after the accident", the committee is considering either up till April 11 when the national government announced the planned evacuation zone, or April 22 when the planned evacuation zone was implemented.

 菅野さんはやるせない。「冷静に行動しようと思い、事故直後は踏みとどまってしまった。影響が出るかもしれない子供たちに申し訳ない上に、補償も出ないなんて」。引っ越し代や二重生活の費用がかさむ。

Mrs. Sugano feels disconsolate. "We thought we were acting rationally right after the accident, and stayed. We are sorry for our children who may be affected by the radiation. And no compensation on top of that". It cost a lot of money to move, and still does as they have to maintain two households. [Her husband apparently remains in Fukushima City.]

(The article continues with another such example.)

Regardless, some sort of a new propaganda using Twitter seems to be on. Tweets are supposedly written by a concerned housewife and mother who lives in Fukushima, and through her interactions with "scientists" and "experts" on Twitter she has been transformed from someone who was afraid of radiation contamination in Fukushima and wanted to leave into someone who has decided to stay and not to worry about radiation any more. (If it is not a propaganda then I lose hope for the country.) If you read Japanese you can read the whole exchange at Togetter.

Friday, September 30, 2011

Three Plutonium Brothers Revisited

Now that the national government has finally owned up to the existence of plutonium and strontium outside Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant (in case of strontium-89, as far as Shirakawa City, 79 kilometers from the plant), it seems like a good time to revisit what the government researchers were saying about "heavy" plutonium that we didn't need to worry about a bit, back in March and April.


Particularly the second guy, Keiichi Nakagawa of Tokyo University, said plutonium was so heavy it wouldn't disperse, and only the workers at the plant needed to worry.

(From my post on 8/8/2011)

Nakagawa: To begin with, this material is very heavy. So, unlike iodine, it won't disperse in the air. Workers at the plant MAY be affected. So, I'd caution them to be careful. But I don't think the public should worry.


My original post has the transcript (translation) of the video, which was captioned by Tokyo Brown Tabby. The Japanese video was compiled by sievert311.