Tokyo Gubernatorial Race Descending into a Whole Lot of Mess

Farce, you may say.

Titbits from the candidates and their supporters, from Sankei Shinbun (1/14/2014) and Nikkei Shinbun (1/15/2014):

1. Who is more like the "leader"? The one who's not running.

Morihiro Hosokawa, after meeting with ex-LDP PM Koizumi and declaring his candidacy on his birthday:

原発問題は知事として非常にやりがいのある仕事だ

"To deal with nuclear power plant issues is a very worthwhile job for me as a governor."

Junichiro Koizumi, after meeting with ex-PM Hosokawa and being asked why he was supporting Hosokawa:

東京が原発なしでやっていける姿を見せれば、必ず国を変えることができる

"If Tokyo shows it can survive [and prosper] without nuclear power plants, it can definitely change the whole nation."

For Mr. Koizumi (pictured right), January 14 was not Hosokawa's birthday, but the day, in the old lunar calendar (December 14), when 47 samurais took revenge on behalf of their lord who in their minds suffered injustice. Lunar December 14 is not January 14, but that's how Koizumi felt anyway.

Koizumi projects a future vision, while Hosokawa doesn't. The former lasted 5 years as the prime minister, the latter 9 months. Oh well.

2. Who is "anti-nuclear"? Just about everybody now (except for the ex-Chief of Staff of the Air Self Defense Force).

Yoichi Masuzoe and LDP backing him are scrambling to make the nuclear power issue a non-issue in the election. Masuzoe, who has been pro-nuclear, now says:

"I have always been saying zero nuke plant."

meaning he is all for gradually lessen the dependency on nuclear power. Prime Minister Abe chimes in from Ethiopia that he is hoping that the debate will be well-balanced, not just about the nuclear issue. As Mr. Koizumi remains popular and influential within LDP, the Abe administration officials are very reluctant to accuse Koizumi of "treason".


3. Anti-nuclear candidate Kenji Utsunomiya and his supporters in disarray (already)

Clearly, Mr. Utsunomiya and his political backers (Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party) didn't expect the entry of Morihiro Hosokawa in the race with the backing from Junichiro Koizumi, who has been quite vocal in his anti-nuclear message of late.

Social Democrats are trying to back out from supporting him, saying the anti-nuclear faction should rally behind Hosokawa. Social Dems bet too early, I suppose.

Mr. Utsunomiya himself is accusing Mr. Koizumi for forcing a single-issue campaign.

Some people ask, "What about yourself, Mr. Utsunomiya?"


4. Who is for 2020 Tokyo Olympic? Everyone.

Yoichi Masuzoe:

五輪という大きな目標があれば全力で東京を改造することができる

With a big target like Olympics, we can truly transform Tokyo.

Morihiro Hosokawa:

五輪の一部を東北に

Part of the Olympics should be held in Tohoku

Kenji Utsunomiya:

環境に配慮した簡素な五輪

Simple, and environmentally-friendly Olympics

The official start of the election campaign is on January 23, and the election will be held on February 9.

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Update on Anti-Nuclear Former PM Tag Team for Tokyo Governorship: Anti-Nuclear, Pro-Casino?

(UPDATE) To the dismay of many, yet another former prime minister has declared his support for Hosokawa. Mr. Naoto Kan, who was the prime minister presiding over the unfolding nuclear disaster in March 2011, is urging Tokyo residents who are anti-nuclear to vote for Mr. Hosokawa.

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Anti-nuclear former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa is about to officially declare his candidacy in the gubernatorial race in Tokyo, with the support from another anti-nuclear former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (see my previous post from 1/8/2014). But what little has been leaked about his policies as the governor of the most populous prefecture in Japan is not so simplistic.

While I could find nothing concrete about his energy policy beyond the "beyond nuclear" slogan, I found a few hints that may indicate Hosokawa's thinking.

Hosokawa's words, as reported by his close associates, according to Tokyo Shinbun (1/12/2014):

「カジノを容認したら女性の支持は離れるだろうか」
"If I allowed casinos, would women stop supporting me?"

「五輪は東京だけが独り占めしていいのか。被災地が置き去りにならないか」
"Should Tokyo monopolize the Olympics? Should the disaster-affected areas be left behind?"

「都知事選には日本の命運がかかっている。勝ち負けは関係ない。世論を喚起できればそれでいいんだ」
"The Tokyo gubernatorial race will determine Japan's destiny. It doesn't matter if I win or lose. All I want to do is to galvanize the public opinion."

I believe Hosokawa means "the public opinion toward 'beyond nuclear'," whatever the phrase means.

I have a feeling that LDP and the Abe administration, supporting the candidacy of Yoichi Masuzoe, won't be very disappointed even if their candidate loses to Hosokawa in the election, if Hosokawa is for bringing the casino (Las Vegas Sand and MGM are eagerly waiting, saying Macao wouldn't even come close to Tokyo in potential) to Tokyo Bay. If Hosokawa is hinting at moving some Olympics venues to the disaster-affected Fukushima to help spread the economic benefit of having the Olympics in Tokyo in 2020, great for LDP.

"Beyond nuclear"? As long as it remains a slogan, without any actionable steps toward it, LDP will tolerate.

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Anti-Nuclear Former Prime Ministers of Japan May Join Forces, with One Running for the Governor of Tokyo, Says Asahi

(UPDATE) It looks almost official. TV Tokyo reports (1/9/2014) that Hosokawa has decided to run, and Koizumi has already pledged support. TV Tokyo says "Hosokawa and Koizumi are both popular with voters", which is probably true.

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Now it gets somewhat interesting, with two weeks left till the official announcement of candidacy.

Former prime ministers - Morihiro Hosokawa (Japan New Party, 1995-1996) and Junichiro Koizumi (LDP, 2001-2006) may join forces, with Mr. Hosokawa running in the gubernatorial election for Tokyo set to be held on February 9, according to the latest Asahi Shinbun article.

Mr. Hosokawa was the first prime minister since 1955 who was not from Liberal Democratic Party. His coalition later evolved into Democratic Party of Japan. He has taken to pottery after he retired from politics.

Mr. Koizumi retains substantial influence within/out LDP even after he retired from politics, and he has caused a stir among anti-nuclear citizens who look at Koizumi's anti-nuclear stance with great suspicion. Koizumi doesn't seem to care about his critics, though, and continues to openly speak up against nuclear energy.

Hosokawa's potential entry into the gubernatorial race, from Asahi Shinbun (1/9/2014; part):

２３日告示の東京都知事選まで２週間。細川護熙（もりひろ）元首相の名前が急浮上した。舛添要一・元厚生労働相が立候補の意向を示し、自民は支援する方向で調整に入ったが、構図が大きく変わる可能性が出てきた。

Two weeks till the official announcement on January 23 of the Tokyo gubernatorial election, the name of the former prime minister Morihiro Hosokawa has suddenly surfaced as a candidate. As Yoichi Masuzoe, former Minister of Health and Labor, has announced his intention to run with the LDP support, Hosokawa's entry into the race could vastly change the election landscape.

本命の１人となる舛添氏が立候補表明するなかで、「脱原発」を旗印に、細川氏と小泉純一郎元首相の連携が実現すれば、都知事選の台風の目になる。

Mr. Masuzoe is considered to be one of the favorite to win the race. But if the alliance of Mr. Hosokawa and the former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi materializes under the "anti [beyond] - nuclear" slogan, it could become the eye of a storm.

細川氏は政治の世界から引退して約１５年。再び表舞台へ駆り立てている要因は、原発やエネルギー問題への危機感だ。

It's been 15 years since Mr. Hosokawa retired from politics. The main reason he is considering a comeback is his sense of crisis over nuclear power plants and energy issues.

細川氏が立ち上げた日本新党の関係者によると、細川氏は１月上旬、「安倍政権のエネルギー政策は国を過（あやま）つかもしれない。都知事選で有権者に脱原発を訴えることは重要だ。勝ち負けじゃない」と語ったという。

According to a person involved in Japan New Party, which Mr. Hosokawa started [it doesn't exist any more], Mr. Hosokawa told him in early January that "The energy policy of the Abe administration may harm the nation. It is important to appeal anti (beyond) - nuclear to the voters in the Tokyo gubernatorial election. It's not the matter of win or lose."

すでに立候補した場合の準備も進めており、この関係者は「本人の判断次第でいかようにも対応出来るよう、全部準備はしている」と話す。

This person says the preparation is already underway should Hosokawa decide to run. "Depending on his decision, anything is possible. It's been all prepared."

細川氏が立候補するかどうかの大きなカギを握るのが、小泉氏の動向だ。

The key to Hosokawa's candidacy is Mr. Koizumi's intention.

両氏は昨秋に会談し、脱原発で連携していくことを約束していた。関係者は「細川氏が立候補すれば、小泉氏は絶対についてくる。小泉氏と組めば都知事選の構図が一気に変わる」と期待を込める。細川氏も小泉氏の動向を注視しているという。

The two met and spoke last fall, and promised to join forces in anti-nuclear movement. The person involved [in Japan New Party] is hopeful, saying "If Mr. Hosokawa runs, Mr. Koizumi will definitely support him. If Mr. Hosokawa joins forces with Mr. Koizumi, the election landscape will suddenly changes." He says Mr. Hosokawa is watching Mr. Koizumi carefully.

...一方、舛添氏を支援する方向の自民党は警戒感を隠さない。すでに細川氏の動きについて情報収集を開始。党幹部の一人は「細川氏だけなら怖くない。しかし、小泉氏が付けば、核融合を起こしかねない」と漏らす。

... On the other hand, LDP, who will support Mr. Masuzoe, is openly wary. The party has already started gathering information on Mr. Hosokawa's moves. One of the senior party members says, "We're not afraid of Mr. Hosokawa, if he is alone. However, if Mr. Koizumi is behind him, it could lead to a nuclear fusion [meaning "very significant event that could jeopardize their soon-to-be-declared candidate Masuzoe"]."

If it is going to be a choice among Mr. Kenji Utsunomiya (attorney backed by Social Democrats and Communist Party), Mr. Yoichi Masuzoe (scholar-author-TV personality-politician backed by LDP and DPJ) and Mr. Hosokawa (with Mr. Koizumi's backing) and if I am forced to choose, I'll be totally at a loss for whom to vote. Mr. Utsunomiya and his message look too "1990s", Mr. Masuzoe is too slick and sleazy for my liking. Beyond the historical significance, Hosokawa was utterly ineffective as the prime minister who effectively threw out the job in only 9 months.

Hosokawa's ancestor was the lord that governed today's Kumamoto after Kiyomasa Kato, extremely popular lord who was displaced by the Tokugawa administration in the 17th century. Maybe Hosokawa is more fit for governing a prefecture, instead of the entire nation.

Asahi's hope that the anti-nuclear stance will get many votes seems little more than a hope, though. From all indications, the Fukushima nuclear accident is long over in the minds of most Japanese.

If Hosokawa runs in the race, it will be the very first time that a former prime minister of Japan runs for a prefectural office. At least I've never heard of it.

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