Osama Bin Laden Killed: Stratfor's First Take "We know little beyond what we have been told, but we know it matters."

From Stratfor's Red Alert (5/2/2011 0249GMT):

The United States has killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and recovered his body, according to numerous media reports May 1 citing U.S. officials. U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to make an announcement on the subject. It is not clear precisely how bin Laden was killed or how his body was recovered, but the assertion that he is dead is significant.

Bin Laden had become the symbol of al Qaeda, even though the degree to which he commanded the organization was questionable. The symbolic value of his death is obvious. The United States can claim a great victory. Al Qaeda can proclaim his martyrdom.

It is difficult to understand what this means at this moment, but it permits the Obama administration to claim victory, at least partially, over al Qaeda. It also opens the door for the beginning of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, regardless of the practical impact of bin Laden’s death. The mission in Afghanistan was to defeat al Qaeda, and with his death, a plausible claim can be made that the mission is complete. Again speculatively, it will be interesting to see how this affects U.S. strategy there.

Equally possible is that this will trigger action by al Qaeda in bin Laden’s name. We do not know how viable al Qaeda is or how deeply compromised it was. It is clear that bin Laden’s cover had been sufficiently penetrated to kill him. If bin Laden’s cover was penetrated, then the question becomes how much of the rest of the organization’s cover was penetrated. It is unlikely, however, that al Qaeda is so compromised that it cannot take further action.

At this early hour, the only thing possible is speculation on the consequences of bin Laden’s death, and that speculation is inherently flawed. Still, the importance of his death has its consequences. Certainly one consequence will be a sense of triumph in the United States. To others, this will be another false claim by the United States. For others it will be a call to war. We know little beyond what we have been told, but we know it matters.

Read more: Red Alert: Osama bin Laden Killed | STRATFOR

Claim victory and get out of Afghanistan and Pakistan (and Kazakhstan and a host of other -stans).

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"Life Form" or "It" from Affecting Monsanto's GM Crops, Scientist Claims

Taking a break from Japan's earthquake/tsunami/nuke crisis... to tell you you don't need to read about Fukushima I Nuke Plant to get freaked out.

You can dismiss it as "quackery". I'm just linking.

From LA Times (emphasis added; 4/2/11):

Bouncing down a dirt road a couple of summers ago, past a gentle patchwork of barnyards and soybean fields in central Iowa, farmer Kent Friedrichsen strained over the steering wheel of his van and stared through the windshield in dismay.

His soybean fields, where he'd used seeds developed by Monsanto Co. and sprayed with its popular glyphosate weed killer Roundup Ready, were littered with yellowed leaves and dead plants. Four days earlier, the plants had been waist high and emerald green.

Nearby, in fields where he had planted seeds that weren't genetically engineered and didn't use glyphosates, the soybean plants were still healthy and lush.

Farmers call this "sudden death syndrome," a plant disease that has plagued the country's heartland and the nation's estimated $36.8-billion soybean industry. Scientists, who first spotted the disease in Arkansas in 1971 — more than 20 years before Monsanto introduced its Roundup Ready soybeans in the U.S. — blame damp weather and a fungus that rots the plant roots.

But, Friedrichsen said, "for years, I've wondered whether there wasn't something else."

Now, despite mountains of research to the contrary, one soil scientist is roiling the agricultural world with claims that there might be some truth to the farmer's unease.

Don M. Huber, an emeritus professor at Purdue University who has done research for Monsanto on chemical herbicides, alleges that he has found a link between genetically modified crops and crop diseases and infertility in livestock: an "unknown organism" he and other researchers claim to have discovered last summer in Midwestern fields like Friedrichsen's.

"This organism appears NEW to science!" Huber wrote in a letter in January to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack about the matter. He added, "I believe the threat we are facing from this pathogen is unique and of a high-risk status. In layman's terms, it should be treated as an emergency."

.....
In an interview, he called his finding "it." Huber said this is all he knows: "It's a life form."

It could be innocuous, Huber said. It may have been around for a long time, even if scientists never knew it.

....."

Obama's Food Safety Czar, Michael Taylor, used to be the vice president at Monsanto.

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Obama Embraces Nuclear Power, Despite #Fukushima Disaster

In case you missed my 2:00AM post on TEPCO chairman press conference, some interesting snippets:

Q: US nuclear plant construction by TEPCO what will happen?

A: South Texas project. Probably the US may reconsider how to proceed, it will be difficult for TEPCO to continue, partly due to cost (that will be incurred by this accident).

Earlier today, President Obama spoke about his bold initiatives on energy, vowing to reduce oil imports by one-third by 2025. And how is he proposing to make up for that reduction?

Nuclear, of course. AP reports:

And he embraced nuclear power as part of America's energy future, despite increased safety concerns following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that severely damaged a nuclear power plant there.

Obama said he is determined to ensure that nuclear plants in the U.S. are safe, and has ordered a safety review of all facilities that will incorporate lessons learned from the crisis in Japan.

Sure. Safety review. (Is this his joke or something?) That will fix everything. All the Japanese nuclear power plants undergo regular safety reviews after another all the time. The government officials there are very determined to ensure the safety of their nuke plants.

So that you know, President Obama, one of the nuke plants that was shut down after the quake is set to reopen in Shizuoka Prefecture after a safety review. The plant sits right in the predicted center of the Tokai Earthquake that the researchers there have predicted to occur sometime in the future, right on the beach. And what are their safety reviews? To conduct a week-long disaster emergency drill. Then it is good to go online.

Oh, if the nuclear energy is so important, why don't you give a huge subsidy to TEPCO so that it can continue to invest in the nuke plant in Texas, Mr. Obama?

There you go, Japan. You have a staunch ally in defending the nuclear power generation despite the huge, radioactive mess that one of your nuke plant has caused.

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And US Resonse to #Saudi's Firing at Protesters

is as lame as it can possibly get. From Guardian's Libya Live Updates:

8.13pm GMT: Asked to respond to reports of gunfire used to disperse protesters in Saudi Arabia, a national security council spokesperson in Washington says: "We're going to support a set of universal values in every country in the region."

And what is that "set of universal values", pray tell?

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(#Libya) And Now Obama Says NATO Is Considering Military Options for Libya

From Haaretz (3/7/2011):

U.S. President Barack Obama authorized an additional $15 million in humanitarian aid to Libya on Monday, and warned that the U.S. and its NATO allies were still considering military options to stop what he called "unacceptable" violence perpetrated by supporters of leader Muammar Ghadhafi

Obama spoke as Libyan warplanes launched multiple airstrikes on opposition fighters in the second day of a harsh government crackdown to thwart rebels advancing on Gadhafi's stronghold in Tripoli.

"I want to send a very clear message to those who are around Colonel Gadhafi," Obama told reporters, alongside Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who is in

Washington for meetings.

"It is their choice to make how they operate moving forward. And they will be held accountable for whatever violence continues to take place," he added.

(Moving forward? Is this his campaign speech or something?)

I guess Saudis said no to his request?

Good luck coordinating NATO - US, UK, France, Italy, Germany, etc. Or will it be more like US, Poland, Turkey, Romania...?

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(#Libya) Today's WTF Moment: "Obama asks #Saudis to airlift weapons into Benghazi"

From Robert Fisk (3/7/2011):

Desperate to avoid US military involvement in Libya in the event of a prolonged struggle between the Gaddafi regime and its opponents, the Americans have asked Saudi Arabia if it can supply weapons to the rebels in Benghazi. The Saudi Kingdom, already facing a "day of rage" from its 10 per cent Shia Muslim community on Friday, with a ban on all demonstrations, has so far failed to respond to Washington's highly classified request, although King Abdullah personally loathes the Libyan leader, who tried to assassinate him just over a year ago.

Washington's request is in line with other US military co-operation with the Saudis. The royal family in Jeddah, which was deeply involved in the Contra scandal during the Reagan administration, gave immediate support to American efforts to arm guerrillas fighting the Soviet army in Afghanistan in 1980 and later – to America's chagrin – also funded and armed the Taliban.

But the Saudis remain the only US Arab ally strategically placed and capable of furnishing weapons to the guerrillas of Libya. Their assistance would allow Washington to disclaim any military involvement in the supply chain – even though the arms would be American and paid for by the Saudis.

And probably with the US military "advisors" aplenty, I suppose. But here's one problem, Fisk says:

If the Saudi government accedes to America's request to send guns and missiles to Libyan rebels, however, it would be almost impossible for President Barack Obama to condemn the kingdom for any violence against the Shias of the north-east provinces.

The violence is a real possibility, even if the Shia demonstrators put women and children in front. Sunni security forces may simply gun them down anyway, considering how they treat women in general in Saudi Arabia.

And lastly,

Thus has the Arab awakening, the demand for democracy in North Africa, the Shia revolt and the rising against Gaddafi become entangled in the space of just a few hours with US military priorities in the region.

So far above Obama's pay grade. So far. (Not to mention others in the US gov.)

Read the entire article at the link.

I still like Zbigniew Brzezinski's idea to park US ships right off the shores of Tripoli, which he delivered with conviction the other day on Al Jazeera. It does not involve "boots on the ground" but highly symbolic and probably just as effective. But it needs "thinking" and "planning", which are totally lacking in this particular US administration.

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Obama on #Libya: I Don't Want to Be "Hamstrung"

Uh oh. I think he said the same thing right before the Afghan surge, meaning the US military brass was NARROWING THE OPTIONS for him. And we know what happened on that: the surge, that continues to kill and injure Afghan civilians and US and NATO soldiers.

Watch out Libyans and the segment of the US taxpayers (majority) who do not want to meddle in the affairs of others in other countries and who certainly do not want to foot the bill of Obama's adventures.

From AFP Libya Live Report on Yahoo (3/3/2011):

1912 GMT: US President Barack Obama is weighing a "full range of options" he told reporters Thursday."In addition to the non-military actions that we've taken, I want to make sure that those full range of options are available to me," he said. Asked whether that included the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya, he said, "That is one of the options that we would be looking at."Obama said the priority now was to provide humanitarian assistance as thousands of people flee the unrest in Libya. And he said Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi was encouraging violence against unarmed citizens."I don't want us hamstrung. I want us to be making our decisions based on what's going to be best for the Libyan people, in consultation with the international community," he said, adding that Washington is consulting closely with America's NATO partners.

Well, NATO is not really about "humanitarian aid", is it?

I am afraid Obama is deluded if he thinks he has a choice, not to mention choices.

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US, Allies Talk of Full-Scale Invasion of #Libya

Here we go again...

From Antiwar.com's Jason Ditz (3/1/2011):

Top officials from the US and European allies have stepped up their threats against the floundering Gadhafi regime, insisting that a full military invasion of the entire nation to oust him from what amounts to just part of a single city remains a very real possibility.

Top Pentagon official Gen. James Mattis also told the Senate the military was preparing to bomb Libya’s air defense systems to set the stage for a “no-fly” zone. This would be particularly problematic as the indications are virtually all of the air defense systems, outside of the capital city of Tripoli, are under the control of the rebels, and have been used against Gadhafi’s warplanes.

The US has been bringing its warships ever closer to the Libyan coast while announcing a broad asset freeze against Gadhafi, including demands that he immediately resign. The reality of Gadhafi’s already tenuous position, however, makes the threats have very little impact.

Indeed, the protest movement is on the brink of ousting him, and while the dictator has shown surprising resilience in the capital his grip on reality also seems to be slipping in his major speeches, as he shifts blame for his impending ouster from Osama bin Laden to Nescafe sometimes in mid-speech.

The protesters have insisted they don’t want Western “help” in any military form, but it doesn’t appear that anyone really intends to ask them beforehand. While the French deployment of humanitarian aid to the east will doubtless be welcomed, there is also concern that it will be the back door through which a full scale Western occupation emerges, and through which NATO imposes its idea of democracy (likely Afghan-style) on the protest movement.

Libyans, I'd suggest you shoot down ANY plane, Gaddafi's or the US's. In case these idiots at the top decide to go ahead and "help" Libya, please also know that the majority of people in the US (67%, in fact) is dead set against the US meddling in Libya and Middle East.

Unfortunately, the US has a figure-head at the top, in the true sense of the world. He only cares about how to get re-elected. For what, I don't know. Maybe he, a multi-millionaire, just wants another 4 years of little work and free housing, and a whole lot of partying and golfing and vacationing at the luxurious resorts for his family paid by the taxpayers. If bombing Libya to "free" Libya would get more votes for him, he would sign on. Maybe he will be given no other choice.

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Is Obama About to Order the US Military to Invade #Libya?

asks End of American Dream in its article (2/25/11). Or is it just a trial balloon to be ditched if it doesn't fly?

The article mentions recent reports, or I should say recent slant in reporting, in the US that seem to indicate the Obama administration is ready to do the same thing that the Bush administration did: Invade Libya, because...

• Gaddafi has weapons of mass destruction (Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, supposedly);

• Gaddafi has 1000 tons of "yellow cake" (uranium, just like Saddam supposedly did);

• The US has to free Libya from the dictator and set the country on the path to democracy as defined by the US.

And as the article points out, if the US is going to do it, it has to do it alone or with the NATO, as China and Russia are likely to block any UN resolution that includes invasion of Libya by the UN coalition forces.

Why would the US be eager to invade Libya to "save" Libyans? Oil. (Hey isn't that what Gaddafi has been saying?)

Here's the CBS news segment that was linked in the article. It is from Thursday February 24. The reporter lists the US options one by one, dismissing all of them as "taking time", and concludes that the military option may be the only option for the US. The CBS analyst that appears in the news segment, Juan Zarate, says the military power may be needed to protect Libyans and remove Gaddafi from power.

They (powers that be in the US) seem to be prepping us, or testing our reaction, while they wait a one "wrong" move by Gaddafi which will give them an opening for military intervention.

Mr. Zarate never explains why that military power has to be provided by the United States, while Libyans are quite capable and more than willing to do that themselves.

Mr. Zarate was a Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism during the Bush administration.

As EC President Barroso said, everyone is now eager to be on the "right" side. Obama can use a new, truly righteous war in Libya to cover up the mess he inherited (for sure) but has greatly expanded since then in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the mess he has created in Pakistan.

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Obama Admin Finalizing the Outline of the Plan for #Libya Sanctions in the Near Future..Maybe

O'Bummer is too tired from the party last night, celebrating "Motown sound", and is doing absolutely nothing today except for getting up and eat lunch with Biden, which is so usual for this White House.

Al Jazeera Libya Blog 2/25/11:

9:55pm Washington is finalising sanctions against; the precise plan will be outlined in "the near future" according to Washington spokesperson. "The mechanics of the sanctions have not been finalised".

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Obama Busy Selling Out Troubled Homeowners to the Foreclosing Banks

Obama is pushing hard for a $20 billion "settlement" with the TBTF US banks so that these banks will be able to foreclose without inconvenient encumbrances like having to prove the ownership of the notes properly and timely endorsed and transferred. Never mind that almost all mortgages securitized in the last 10 years or so have been improperly transferred or not at all, and foreclosures have been done by entities with no standing to foreclose. Never mind that every single foreclosure-related documents may have been signed by so-called "robo-signers" who simultaneously work for all servicers in all states. And never mind that states and counties have been missing a significant chunk of revenues in recording fees (and it's not just MERS).


From Business Insider (2/23/2011):

The Obama administration wants to push through a massive settlement over mortgage-servicing breakdowns that could force the nation's biggest lenders to shell out more than $20 billion in fines, or to at least fund the same amount in loan modifications for troubled borrowers, the WSJ reports.

According to Reuters, the terms of the proposal, which would obviously require a commitment from the mortgage servicers themselves, have not yet been presented to the banks.

The White House hopes such a deal would allow the foreclosure process to start ramping up again.

Yeah Barry, good job, you've shown your true colors. Always help your biggest supporters. Just don't pretend it is for "working-class homeowners".

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Obama Has Nothing to Say About #Libya Because He Is Busy "Community Organzing" for Wisconsin for Public Unions

ALF-CIO's boss Richard Trumka says he's "at the White House a couple of times a week...two or three times a week", and that he has "conversations everyday with someone in the White House or in the administration. Everyday." The remarks were supposedly taped on February 18, 2011.

Sure, he doesn't say he's talking with Obama himself. So? He's probably talking with his handler, Valerie "Slum lord" Jarrett.

O'Bummer is too busy organizing public union workers to demonstrate against taxpayers. Roughly the equivalent of Libya's Gaddafis organizing thugs against citizens who oppose their policies...

(Is it Constitutional for a sitting president to do the "community organizing" in a particular state, favoring one side against the other? Nah.. who cares about Constitution?)

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Misstatement of the Morning Award: United States

From Al Jazeera English tweet:

US spokesman calls on #Libya to respect rights of "thousands of US citizens" in the country.

uhh... US citizens' rights?

"Rights"? How about LIVES?

"US citizens"? How about ALL CITIZENS including LIBYANS?

"Respect"? Ya think Gaddafi "respects" anything (other than perhaps the blonde Ukrainian nurse)?

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Hillary Clinton "We're Working with Our Allies to Send Libya a Message" While Obama Wants Gaddafi to Punish Officials Responsible for Violence

The US Secretary of State says she's working to send Libya a message, or something like that is what I just read in Al Jazeera's Live Feed.

Send a message.

Right.

Send in the bombers to take out Gaddafi would be more like it.

Wall Street Journal reports a rather disjointed statement from the Obama administration (again):

WASHINGTON— The Obama administration, citing reports that hundreds of antigovernment protesters had been killed and injured in Libya, demanded Sunday that Col. Moammar Gadhafi's regime punish officials responsible for the violence.

So, Obama is demanding Gaddafi to punish officials responsible for the violence.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....... It's actually very sad. Gaddafi and his sons do not hold any official government positions, by the way. So Obama is effectively saying to Gaddafi don't worry he is not responsible.

(Oh wait, it's almost the same as telling Ben Bernank to better regulate the TBTF Wall Street banks...)

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DEBKA: Mubarak Moved a Large Part of Assets from Europe to Saudi Arabia On Feb 12-13

With a grain of salt, from DEBKAfile (2/14/2011):

Hosni Mubarak and his family have moved a large part of their assets – guesstimated at between $20 and $70 billion - from European banks to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Republics against personal guarantees from King Abdullah and Sheik Al Nahyan to block access to outside parties.This is reported by Gulf and West European sources. Tunisian ex-ruler Zein Al Abdain Ben Ali received the same guarantee when he fled his country and received asylum in the oil kingdom.

A Swiss financial source commented: "If he had any real money in Zurich, it may be gone by now."

According to debkafile's sources, the transfers took place on Feb. 12-13. Although a weekend when European banks are closed, high-ranking officials in Riyadh had their managers hauled out of home to execute Mubarak's transfer orders without delay.

The ousted Egyptian ruler was on the phone to Saudi King Abdullah Friday, Feb. 11, immediately after his vice president Omar Suleiman went on state television to announce his resignation and handover of rule to the army. Mubarak called it a military putsch conducted under pressure from Washington. He denied he had resigned or passed any powers to the army. "I had no idea Omar Suleiman was about to read out that statement. I would never have signed it or allowed it to be published," said Mubarak.

The Saudi king voiced understanding for the ex-president's plight and said the Riyadh government was under orders to meet any requests for assistance received from him.....

In another, earlier article, DEBKA says that Saudi Arabia has initiated a dialog with Iran, and that the Saudi king is extremely upset with Obama over the US handling of the situation in Egypt. The article cites unnamed sources who told DEBKA that the king was so upset talking to Obama on the phone on February 10 that he suffered a heart attack.

As I said at the top, with a grain of salt.

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Timeline of US Flip-Flopping

Nice summary at Al Jazeera (2/10/2010):

January 25 - Day 1

Protests begin in Egypt on the day Barack Obama, the US president, gives State of the Union address to Congress.

Obama did not mention Egypt but did refer to protests in Tunisia, saying the US "supports the democratic aspirations of all people".

Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, gave the first high-level US response to the Egypt protests, saying: "Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people."

January 26 - Day 2

Obama did not mention Egypt in prepared remarks during a visit to Wisconsin, as Egyptian police fought with thousands of people who defied a government ban to protest.

Richard Gibbs, the White House spokesman, said "Egypt is a strong ally" when asked whether the US still backed Mubarak.

Clinton urged Egyptian authorities to not prevent peaceful protests and not block communications.

anuary 27 - Day 3

As protests spread, Joe Biden, the US vice president, calls Mubarak an ally on Middle East peace efforts, saying: "I would not refer to him as a dictator".

Obama, in a YouTube interview, says reform "is absolutely critical for the long-term well-being of Egypt".

January 28 - Day 4

The White House, in the strongest US reaction so far, said the country would review its $1.5bn in aid to Egypt.

"We will be reviewing our assistance posture based on events that take place in the coming days," Gibbs says.

Officials later said no such review was currently planned.

Obama spoke with Mubarak after the Egyptian president, in a televised statement, called for a national dialogue to avoid chaos.

Obama said he urged Mubarak to undertake sweeping reforms "to meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people".

January 29 - Day 5

Obama met his national security team on Egypt, as Mubarak dissolved his government and picked intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president.

PJ Crowley, the US state department spokesman, tweeted that the Egyptian leader "can't reshuffle the deck and then stand pat".

January 30 - Day 6

Clinton, on television talk shows, dodges questions about whether Mubarak should resign but brings the term "orderly transition" into the official US message for the first time.

"We want to see an orderly transition so that no one fills a void, that there not be a void, that there be a well thought out plan that will bring about a democratic participatory government," Clinton tells Fox News Sunday.

January 31 - Day 7

Obama dispatched Frank Wisner, a former US ambassador to Egypt, to tell Mubarak privately that he must prepare for an "orderly transition" of power.

Publicly, the White House continues to call for democratic reforms but would not be drawn on Mubarak's fate. Gibbs said: "We're not picking between those on the street and those in the government."

February 1 - Day 8

The state department orders the departure from Egypt of nonessential US government personnel and their families.

Obama made a statement that he spoke with Mubarak after the Egyptian leader pledged not to seek re-election.

He said he told Mubarak that "an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful and it must begin now".

February 2 - Day 9

The White House condemned the violence in Egypt and said it was concerned about attacks on peaceful demonstrators, following the bloodiest day of protests.

US officials were vague on whether Obama's call for an immediate transition of power meant the Washington wanted Mubarak to step down before the September elections.

February 3 - Day 10

The US condemned attacks on journalists. Obama told the US National Prayer Breakfast he is praying "that a better day will dawn over Egypt".

Republican senator John McCain suggests the US should consider suspending aid to Egypt's military.

The US Senate passes a bipartisan resolution calling on Mubarak to transfer power to an inclusive caretaker government.

Clinton calls on the Egyptian government and opposition "to begin immediately serious negotiations on a peaceful and orderly transition".

February 4 - Day 11

The White House called for "concrete steps" toward an orderly transition but again stopped short of demanding Mubarak's immediate resignation.

"Having made that psychological break, that decision that he will not be running again, I think the most important thing for him to ask himself ... is how do we make the transition effective, lasting and legitimate," Obama said.

"And my hope is ... that he will end up making the right decision."

February 5 - Day 12

Clinton said the US backs a transition process led by Suleiman, and that it must be given time to mature.

"The principles are very clear, the operational details are very challenging," she told a security conference in Munich, adding that radical elements may try to derail the process.

Wisner said it is "critical" that Mubarak stay in power for the time being to manage the transition.

"We need to get a national consensus around the preconditions for the next step forward. The president must stay in office to steer those changes," Wisner said.

The state department and White House quickly disavowed his comments, saying Wisner spoke in a private capacity.

February 6 - Day 13

Obama said Egypt "is not going to go back to what it was" and tells Fox News he is confident an orderly transition will produce a government that will remain a US partner.

Clinton said Mubarak had responded seriously to US calls for constitutional change, chiefly through his pledge not to run for president again.

She said she will not "prejudge" a bid by the Muslim Brotherhood to enter Egypt's political process.

February 7 - Day 14

"Obviously, Egypt has to negotiate a path and they're making progress," Obama said.

Crowley, acknowledging doubts about the credibility of the transition process, said: "Our advice would be: test the seriousness of the government and those who are participating to see if it can deliver."

Gibbs said: "The United States doesn't pick leaders of other countries."

February 8 - Day 15

Biden spoke to his Egyptian counterpart by telephone, setting out steps that the country must take in the face of unrelenting protests against Mubarak.

Biden spoke to Suleiman, stressing US support "for an orderly transition in Egypt that is prompt, meaningful, peaceful, and legitimate".

Washington set out four steps the Egyptian government must take, including an end to harassment of protesters and journalists and the immediate repeal of an emergency law allowing detention without charge.

Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, said Egypt's military had behaved in "an exemplary fashion" by standing largely on the sidelines during the demonstrations.

February 9 - Day 16

In a sharp escalation of rhetoric, the US government said that Cairo had failed to reach even the "minimum threshold" for reforms in Egypt.

Gibbs said "The [Egyptian] government has not taken the necessary steps that the people of Egypt need to see. That's why more and more people come out to register their grievances."

"What you see happening on the streets of Cairo is not all that surprising when you see the lack of steps that their government has taken to meet their concerns."

Gibbs also criticised the steps taken by Suleiman who is tasked with coming up with a transition plan for Mubarak.

"The process for his transition does not appear to be in line with the people of Egypt. We believe that more has to be done," said Gibbs.

Ahmed Abul Gheit, Egypt's foreign minister, lashed out at the White House for imposiing it's "will" on its Arab ally.

February 10 - Day 17

Noting that he's watching "history unfold" Obama says that he's still hoping for an "orderly and genuine" transiton.

He did not, however, comment directly on reports that Mubarak might be stepping down.

It's way above Obama's "pay grade". About the only one thing I've found to be less unpleasant coming out of his administration these days is his mouthpiece, Robert Gibbs. The smirk seems to have been mostly wiped off his face since the Egyptian uprising started. He started to speak with some substance, unlike his phony-sounding boss. Alas, he is to depart soon, just when he finally gets it right.

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Robert Fisk: The Army Disobeyed Mubarak's Orders to Crush Demonstrators on January 30

A revelation from Robert Fisk's latest (2/11/2011):

Last night, a military officer guarding the tens of thousands celebrating in Cairo threw down his rifle and joined the demonstrators, yet another sign of the ordinary Egyptian soldier's growing sympathy for the democracy demonstrators. We had witnessed many similar sentiments from the army over the past two weeks. But the critical moment came on the evening of 30 January when, it is now clear, Mubarak ordered the Egyptian Third Army to crush the demonstrators in Tahrir Square with their tanks after flying F-16 fighter bombers at low level over the protesters.

Many of the senior tank commanders could be seen tearing off their headsets – over which they had received the fatal orders – to use their mobile phones. They were, it now transpires, calling their own military families for advice. Fathers who had spent their lives serving the Egyptian army told their sons to disobey, that they must never kill their own people.

Thus when General Hassan al-Rawani told the massive crowds yesterday evening that "everything you want will be realised – all your demands will be met", the people cried back: "The army and the people stand together – the army and the people are united. The army and the people belong to one hand."

And the cowardice and hypocrisy of the West, as Fisk has been pointing out in his reporting:

The events of the past 12 hours have not, alas, been a victory for the West. American and European leaders who rejoiced at the fall of communist dictatorships have sat glumly regarding the extraordinary and wildly hopeful events in Cairo – a victory of morality over corruption and cruelty – with the same enthusiasm as many East European dictators watched the fall of their Warsaw Pact nations. Calls for stability and an "orderly" transition of power were, in fact, appeals for Mubarak to stay in power – as he is still trying to do – rather than a ringing endorsement of the demands of the overwhelming pro-democracy movement that should have struck him down.

I cannot agree more.

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Mubarak: "I Will Stay Till September, I Will Not Bow to Foreign Pressure"

After being assured by the Army that Mubarak would go, the protesters in Egypt were in for a surprise. President Mubarak vows to stay in office until September, and declares he will not bow to "foreign pressure".

Ooops, Obama, you screwed up by flipping and flopping, and didn't say what would have mattered when it would have mattered, and said things that were totally unnecessary (like this morning's speech).

Here's a picture of angry protesters in Tahrir Square with shoes. (We know what those shoes signify, don't we?) (posted by @LaurenBohn via twitpic, from Al Jazeera Live Blog Feb 11, 2011)

According to Al Jazeera, there will be an unprecedented number of Egyptians taking to streets come tomorrow. They are already heading to the Presidential Palace in Heliopolis.

In the meantime, Zero Hedge reports:

EGYPT SECURITY HQ IN RAFAH ATTACKED BY ROCKET PROPELLED GRENADE

The Egyptian Revolution is getting "hot", starting to resemble Paris 1789 and Bucharest 1989.

Finally seeing the potential of much bigger turmoil and oil supply disruption out of Middle East, the US stock market futures are down right now. Dow futures -37, Nasdaq -6.75, S&P500 -4.70.

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Obama Orders Presidential Emergency Alerts Tested

With the eyes of dead fish, the Commander in Chief has ordered the FCC to upgrade the national Emergency Alert System (EAS) so that he can talk directly to the Americans in times of grave, national emergency.

From Federal News Radio 1500AM:

Everybody has heard the national Emergency Alert System (EAS). Those familiar "duck calls" that reassure listeners "THIS is a test...this is ONLY a test..."

The FCC is planning an upgrade to the tests by including presidential announcements in the system.

Lisa Fowlkes, deputy chief of the Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau of the FCC, explained to the Federal Drive the Presidential Alert isn't new.

"The primary goal is to provide the President with a mechanism to communicate with the American public during times of national emergency," said Fowlkes. The change, she said, is that prior to last week's order there was no rule in place to call for or allow a test from top to bottom.

Fowlkes said, "There's never been a test from top to bottom where it's issued by FEMA and it goes straight down to all the different levels of EAS to the American public. So this is a way for us to glean, okay, if there were an actual emergency and the federal government needed to activate the Presidential EAS, making sure that it actually works the way it's designed to."

Now that there's a rule in place, the next challenges are going to be working with all the stakeholders on timing of the test and to reach out to the public so they understand it's a test and not a real emergency, Fowlkes said.

"We want to make sure that it works the way it's designed to," Fowlkes said. "If there are things that work well, great. If there are things that don't work well, we can work with EAS participants and with state and local governments as well as our federal partners to correct or improve what doesn't work."

At the same time, said Fowlkes, the FCC is looking at how wireless broadband could also enhance the EAS as part of a recommendation that was in the FCC's National Broadband Plan from last year.

The idea is to leverage broadband and the Internet for emergency alerting with the "Commercial Mobile Alert System (CMAS) being developed by FEMA and the wireless industry."

CMAS would allow three kinds of text messaging or wireless alert to be sent, said Fowlkes:

• Presidential Alerts - "Which would be the same as what the president might issue or FEMA might issue through the EAS system,
• Imminent Threat Alerts - Which Fowlkes said would warn when "there's a hurricane coming or a tornado coming," and then the
• Child Abduction Emergency/AMBER Alerts - Alerts related to missing or endangered children due to an abduction or runaway situation.

Fowlkes said the CMAS is slated to begin deployment in April 2012.

There's your "Internet Kill Switch" right there, "The idea is to leverage broadband and the Internet for emergency alerting..." You will be surfing the net on your cellphone, iPad, PC, and all of a sudden the face of Obama appears and he tells you he's shutting down the net because of the national emergency, which will be so critical and dangerous that he cannot tell you what it is.

Something like that...

It's so 1984 it never ceases to amaze me.

I just wonder what kind of "emergency" the Obama admin is thinking of (or should I dare say planning?).

I have a feeling that it is increasingly hard to pull off a so-called "terrorist" attack on the US soil, although it is certainly possible. (Remember the timely WikiLeaks leak that Al-Qaeda is ready to use dirty nukes?)

I think the "terror" may be biological. I have no basis for that, other than that I happened to read an old article in UK's Guardian about Spanish flu, and in the passing the article said that the scientists reconstructed the extremely deadly Spanish flu virus.

The reconstruction, by the way, was done by the US Army scientists.

So, it is just the "recency bias" on my part. Don't worry. As long as people watch Super Bowl and the shares of Apple (AAPL) keep going up, things are just fine. Nothing to worry about, nothing to see.

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More on Frank Wisner, Obama's Envoy to Egypt: "Ideal Time for Mubarak to Show the Way Forward"

The US State Department is furiously trying to disavow what Mr. "Friend of Mubarak" Wisner said earlier today, as recounted in my post:

We need to get a national consensus around the pre-conditions for the next step forward. The president must stay in office to steer those changes.

But wait, there's more! This true friend of Mubarak said the following:

The president must stay in office in order to steer those changes through. I therefore believe that President Mubarak's continued leadership is critical, it's his opportunity to write his own legacy. He's given 60 years of his life to the service of his country. This is an ideal moment for him to show the way forward.

Incredible in a true sense of the word. Go see for yourself at BBC.

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