Friday, April 17, 2009

Re-inflation Rally

Here's an article from iTulip.

Re-inflation Rally Part I: falsehoods, fantasies, fabrications, and fake-outs

"...Without a shred of proof to support the theory that economy-wide price fixing of capital and under-pricing of debt by governments through manipulation of interest rates cures the economic ills caused by previous price fixing and debt subsidy schemes, global Keynesian stimulus as an alternative to debt cancellation is a triumph of ideology over evidence that will end in inflationary tears. Shall we as investors go all-in with the bulls to play the intermediate results of the fiscal fantasy plan in execution -- the stock market rallies and the price distortions in bonds and commodities -- or a solid position for the end game with the doomers, wait it out with bars of gold, a sidearm, and a case of Scotch? Is there a rational position to take between these extremes?" [emphasis by me]

Good question. But alas, their answer is only for iTulip paid subscribers in Re-inflation Rally Part II.

But here's an interesting snippet from this article:

"The cornerstone of the economic recovery story is the fallacy that the stock market can see into the future, and that today’s rising stock market foretells economic recovery. A review in of past recessions reveals that stock markets are blind to the onset of recession, fall coincident with economic contraction, and recover coincident with economic growth, sustained or temporary. " [emphasis by me]