Sunday, June 6, 2010

UK Telegraph: Euro 'Will Be Dead in Five Years'

The article by Edmund Conway of Telegraph UK that appeared on June 5, 2010:

"Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided."

"Two of the eight experts who predicted that the currency would survive said it would do so only at the cost of seeing at least one of its members default on its sovereign debt. Andrew Lilico, chief economist at think tank Policy Exchange, said there was "nearly zero chance" of the euro surviving with its current membership, adding: "Greece will certainly default on its debts, and it is an open question whether Greece will experience some form of revolution or coup – I'd put the likelihood of that over the next five years as around one in four."

"Douglas McWilliams of the Centre for Economics and Business Research said the single currency "may not even survive the next week"" [He is the one who advised Greeks to leave the euro, go back to the Drachma and default on the euro debt.]

For the full article, click here.

Four economists think it will be Germany who will leave the euro regime, according to the article:

"Peter Warburton of consultancy Economic Perspectives said: "Possibly Germany will leave. Possibly other central and eastern European countries – plus Denmark – will have joined."" [Emphasis is mine.]

I suspect Germans (except for the German politicians) never wanted euro to begin with. They were proud of their Deutschemark. I also suspect Greeks (except for the Greek politicians) are not very eager to remain in euro (and possibly the EU) after this unhappy experience.

This is all interesting. Instead of centralization and integration as the EU planners had planned and patiently worked on for more than 60 years, nature seems to have exerted its force: Europe may be going the other way - decentralization and sovereignty.


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