Monday, May 23, 2011

Mainichi English: US Researcher Says Fukushima Reactor Had Meltdown 3.5 Hours after Cooling System Collapsed

A US researcher Chris Allison did the simulation of one of the Fukushima reactors (Reactor 1) and concluded that the meltdown occurred 3.5 hours after the cooling system stopped. It was reported to the IAEA in late March.

So they all knew, except for the hapless citizens of Japan and the rest of the world.

Or they say "Oh we didn't know for sure until May 15 when TEPCO finally announced it," like Japan's PM Kan has said.

We do not know for sure, because no one has looked inside the RPV and reported back to us. All we can do is to collect the evidence and hypothesize, and that has been pointing to a meltdown. Even the PM Assistant has admitted that they knew it was a meltdown early on.

Here's the summary of the simulation by Allison, as described in the Mainichi English article (linked below):

  1. The emergency core cooling system (ECCS) fails;

  2. 50 minutes later: reactor core starts to melt;

  3. 1 hour 20 minutes later: control rods and other pipes inside the RPV start to melt;

  4. 3 hours 20 minutes later: most of the melted jumble ("corium") drops to the bottom of RPV;

  5. 4 hours 20 minutes later: temperature at the bottom of the RPV reaches 1,642 degrees Celsius, damaging the RPV stainless steel lining [melting point of stainless steel is 1,510 degrees Celsius].

It is not clear from the TEPCO's log on the day exactly when the emergency core cooling system failed. After the earthquake on March 11 at 2:46PM JST, the ECCS for the Reactor 1 started to operate at 2:52PM JST, but failed only after 10 minutes. And that was before the tsunami arrived at about 3:30PM JST. Attempts were made to restart the ECCS until 1:48AM JST on March 12, when the pump that feeds water to the ECCS broke. (From the summary at Yomiuri Shinbun, 5/16/2011.)

If you can read English, you can read Wikipedia's various entries on nuclear reactor and reactor accidents, and would have figured out that there was no way that the Reactor 1's reactor core had not melted once the cooling system failed. I read several wiki entries ("corium", "meltdown", "Three Mile Island accident", "Chernobyl accident" and others), and that was my conclusion as a layman. I kept scratching my head right after the accident, watching the Japanese government vigorously attack anyone who hinted at a core meltdown and hearing TEPCO insist that the fuel rods were only partially "damaged".

And why has this scientist kept quiet? A confidentiality obligation with a threat of jail time like Professor Kosako?

From Mainichi Shinbun English (5/23/2011):

A meltdown occurred at one of the reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant three and a half hours after its cooling system started malfunctioning, according to the result of a simulation using "severe accident" analyzing software developed by the Idaho National Laboratory.

Chris Allison, who had actually developed the analysis and simulation software, reported the result to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in late March. It was only May 15 when Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) admitted for the first time that a meltdown had occurred at the No. 1 reactor at the Fukushima nuclear plant.

According to Allison's report obtained by the Mainichi, the simulation was based on basic data on light-water nuclear reactors at the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant in Mexico that are about the same size as that of the No. 1, 2, and 3 reactors in Fukushima.

According to the simulation, the reactor core started melting about 50 minutes after the emergency core cooling system of the No. 1 reactor stopped functioning and the injection of water into the reactor pressure vessel came to a halt. About an hour and 20 minutes later, the control rod and pipes used to gauge neutrons started melting and falling onto the bottom of the pressure vessel. After about three hours and 20 minutes, most of the melted fuel had piled up on the bottom of the pressure vessel. At the four hour and 20 minute mark, the temperature of the bottom of the pressure vessel had risen to 1,642 degrees Celsius, close to the melting point for the stainless steel lining, probably damaging the pressure vessel.

TEPCO, the operator of the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, had tried to fill the containment vessel of the No. 1 reactor with water, but it decided to abandon the plan after it discovered that a meltdown had occurred at the reactor.

Masanori Naito, director in charge of safety analysis at the Institute of Applied Energy, said, "TEPCO could have conducted similar analysis at an early stage and assumed the meltdown had occurred. TEPCO should have prepared other cooling methods besides the method of filling the reactor with water."


doitujin said...

yeah, media and world-wide(!) nuclear experts talked of a meltdown from the beginning on and i couldn't believe tepco didn't even consider it POSSIBLE all the time...

netudiant said...

Is this not classical Japanese 'tatemae versus honne'?
TEPCO is not stupid and surely knew their reactors were lost very early, but was very loath to admit it.
An early confession of the full scope of the disaster, with recognition that nothing could be done except some small scale damage limitation, would quite possibly have done much more harm than the approach taken, to delay recognition of any damage until it became impossible to deny.
The scope of the evacuation was kept low because of TEPCOs non disclosure policy. Recognizing that there is no safe radius, it is better to make it as small as possible. A more candid approach might have caused panic as far as Tokyo.
The offset for these benefits is that the public is very unlikely to be taken in this way again. Both Japans government as well as its corporate community have damaged their credibility greatly. Given the challenges still facing the country, that is very bad.

steve the jew said...

Any time enough hydrogen is generated to blow the outer containment building to shreds it's safe to say that a major meltdown has occurred. The laughable blatherings of TepidCo in response to it were immediately seen for the rearguard actions that they were.

The only thing anyone was concerned with after March 12 was whether the corium would be sufficient to produce a full-blown china syndrome... and a catastrophic release of radiation that would make immediate abandonment of the entire site necessary.

It's still up in the air.

Anonymous said...

Radiation levels do not look good in reactor 1

201 Sv/h

Anonymous said...

"Chile syndrome" is still a possibility. If pressure drops to atmospheric in #1 RPV and black smoke is observed again, or even worse a new explosion... that's when it's time to evacuate Honshu.

Anonymous said...

Robbie001 sez:

Dr. Allison didn't say what he knew for the same reason most of them don't.... job security. Dr. Allison depends on the nuclear industry to pay his bills. Just like "Deep -Throat" said, during Watergate "follow the money". You won't see too many poor unfunded industry supporters.

I mean look at the CTBTO's treaty, it precludes them from making real-time information available to the public this includes civil and military operations. The EPA only samples our food supply for radiation every few months even after 9/11. This type of information should everyday and be very public. Terrorist could quietly contaminate or food for weeks on end and nobody would be the wiser.

CTBTO treaty language:

"It shall take every precaution to protect
the confidentiality of information on civil and military activities and facilities coming to its knowledge in the implementation of this Treaty and, in particular, shall abide
by the confidentiality provisions set forth in this Treaty."

"The obligation to respect the confidentiality and the safety and health regulations of the inspected State Party."

Anonymous said...

Those who control the money control the flow of information. From day number one even I a non-nuc individual living in the state of Texas knew that the informational releases to the controlled media were under lock down. At first I had hoped it was to prevent panic, now I know it was to cover political and corporate asses.
We are just now at the end of the beginning and from all indications it will get much much worse.

Pray for the people of Japan, the pacific nations, and the rest of us. That's all that is left...

steven Thompson said...

Thank you from the bottom of my heart for your continual posts.

Anonymous said...

The people that have been "in charge" of this catastrophe have proven one thing that is obviously true, these so-called brilliant solutions that are made to look inept to normal thinking people, were planned from the beginning!

Each "new idea" seems more stupid than the last one but, it is all being done so as to allow more time to pass and have more deadly radiation released around the world. If you think this is not true then, you too have been successfully brainwashed!

The plan was so perfectly simple.
In the event that (at some point in time) one or more of these nukes would be cracked open by nature, old age, or so-called human error, the long-term depopulation plans for the World could begin. The trick was to allow them to stay "hot" for as long as possible, in order to radiate as long as possible.

Rahm Emmanel gave great insight into the thinking of the leadership of the world...."Never let a good crisis go to waste!" Here you have an amazing "six dirty bombs" nuke plants all set off at once. Each is being handled in such a way so as to allow maximum radiation release. If the news was really reporting the truth, you would hear the true dangers people are facing, rapid plans to protect people, and the most brilliant minds brought together to protect mankind! None of this is happening. All we read and hear are well-crafted lies and hapless ideas of folly...all executed by those "in control." Amazing! (If anyone really cared about the public's safety, these "Hell-fueled ovens" would never have been created to begin with.

When you think of it, nuclear plants are really supposedly controlled, nuclear bombs. The fact that these bombs have been "mother nature" activated and being given enough time to meltdown so completely, and all by the incompetent actions of so-called fools! Obviously, decades in the making and just waiting for the right crisis to trigger it all.

So look at it closely, GE built reactors that were unable to withstand maximum-level earthquakes, constructed in areas that get maximum-level earthquakes. Each nuclear plant was carefully positioned directly on fault lines around the globe. Fuel pools were built over each reactor so as to be as close as possible. In the event of explosions taking place with in the reactors, the fuel pools would blow up, too.

We are all missing the obvious here. This bumbling and supposed incompetence is so well performed, the public accepts ALL of it! Each lie and each idea has been well crafted so as to seem, they are doing their best in a bad situation. What a brilliant way to keep the Public from reacting violently! After all, how can supposed-ed, media-supported retards be expected to be brilliant in such a situation as this!

All the government/media says is, "They are trying their best." "There were no disaster procedures in place for these types of events." But, wouldn't a simple person with simple intelligence, have enough of an understanding of nuclear power to know that putting so much danger in an area that shakes violently everyday, might be the wrong place to build it?

So, the plans for World resource conservation and control is underway. Populations of the World will be dwindling down over the coming years by the millions. Food and water will be poisoned for thousands of years. The population explosion over the World is on track now to become a non-issue.

Absolutely the most evil of plans for World domination ever devised! Be happy, you had the chance to have front-row seats to the entire show!

Green Thumb Gardening said...

Most of the workers who had internal exposure to radiation visited Fukushima after the nuclear crisis broke out following the March 11 quake and tsunami, and apparently inhaled radioactiv¬e substances scattered by hydrogen explosions at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant.

Lili said...

Remember to cross post. The Yahoo,Google,MSN,Fox bunches need warning. This is going to get very ugly very fast.

The regular MSM people are going to completely lose it when they realize what has happened.

Anonymous said...

If the clusters of fuel rods have reached critical mass, then the only way to stop it, is to separate the fuel rods? How do they separate a blob of melted fuel rods that are inside a containment vessel- a round or two of depleted uranium cannon shells, (fired while water is being sprayed over the reactors)- followed by a dumping of Boron, or powdered Lead?
Or- are they just going to stand around and scratch their heads? Duh!

Anonymous said...

The Last Guy That Got IT !

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