Dow Jones Industrial Hit All Time High

Congrats, so-called "One Percent" in the US and the world. All the gains since the so-called "Lehman Crash" which may or may not have been engineered by the JPM and Hank Paulson (see Zero Hedge, here and here) have gone to you exclusively.

The rest of us got double the unemployment, nearly double the food stamps between October 2007 and March 2013. The household disposable income has declined, gas price is 36% higher.

Zero Hedge has the nice bullet points comparing the highs, then and now:

"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables):  "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else."

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5

• Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73

• GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%

• Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million

• Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million

• Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion

• US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%

• US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion

• Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion

• US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion

• Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%

• Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6

• S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+

• VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%

• 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%

• EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050

• Gold: Then $748; Now $1583

• NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

Ah good old October 2007. That was when Google was approaching the then-all-time high. I had a November call option of Google at $750. November came, and it was Nasdaq's multi-year high. Just when Google was about to breach $750, the stock and Nasdaq went haywire, for no apparent cause, taking the other indices with it. The stock market tried to recover in December, but when the Pakistani presidential candidate (Benazir Bhutto) died during her campaign the stock indices started the march downward again. They went down almost every day for the month of January 2008.

(Google went from $747.24 to $412.11 in slightly over four months.)

Investor's Business Daily's IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has plunged to a 15-month low of 42.2. The federal economic policies confidence gauge fell 11% to 35.5, also a 15-month low.

Buoyed and encouraged by the rising stock market that correctly reflects the real market, no doubt, the federal government is giving away aids to Egypt and Pakistan, and hiring new employees.

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Dow Jones Industrial: Down It Goes...(Again)

(Now it's down 160, with 40 minutes remaining on the regular session.)

Obama spoke to the press today, first in 3 months.

Hillary (Sec. of State) and Leon (Sec. of Defense) scooting off to Australia. (Herald Sun has an AP photo of them quite cheerfully laughing, looking very happy to be out of the US at the moment.)

Petaeus will testify on Benghazi after all.

Israel bombed and killed a Hamas leader in Gaza.

Obama is off to his first post-election trip to Myanmar.

(Myanmar?)

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OT: Dow Plunges

From Yahoo Finance screen as of 12:40PM PST 8/4/2011. Less than 20 minutes to go till the stock market closes.

Some support at 11,000, a bit more solid support at 10,000.

Will the Fed come to the rescue?

Less than 10 minutes to go now, and it's down 513.

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Ugly Dow Intraday July 21, 2010

3-minute intraday chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average:


The market shorts thank you, Chairman Bernanke, whatever you're babbling in the hearing...

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Dow Plunges almost 1,000 Points, Snaps Back - High-Frequency Quant Trading Horror

It was a free fall when it was happening. I was sure that the market circult braker (on 10% fall) would kick in in a second or two.

Some quant funds must have made a fortune. This is high-frequency algo bots for you piling on the downside, then switching to the upside. In the meantime, the system overload of the exchanges seems to have frozen many discount brokerages that the small retail traders/investors use during this violence, leaving many unable to access the accounts or trading screens.

I am so sure that the Senators discussing the so-called financial "reform" is on top of this high-frequency front-running and the highly disruptive damage it can cause in the financial markets. (NOT.)



Oh BTW, the supposed reason for the plunge was the rumor that European banks stopped lending because there was no liquidity.

The latest rumor is that one trader in a major brokerage had a "fat finger" moment, and put 16B (billion) shares order instead of 16 M (million). Algo bots don't care, and they vigorously exploit the opportunity.

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Where Dow May Be Headed

Take a peek at my other blog for detailed explanation of my thinking. But I'm putting up the charts here, too. The top chart is daily, the bottom chart is weekly.

The top chart is Dow daily chart from July 17 to October 15, 2007. The bottom chart is Dow weekly chart from the week of September 22, 2008 up to now.

In short, we may have been experiencing, since last October, what we did experience from July to October 2007 (when the stock market topped). Except this time it is taking much longer and in an exaggerated manner (correction is much deeper).

I'm not claiming that we have been experiencing, and that it is going to happen. I am fascinated by the pattern that's emerging, that's all. However, particularly the aspect of augmentation fits with my thinking in my post back in June titled "What If It's 'Slowing', Not 'Quickening'?".

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Japan's Nikkei Blasts Through 10,000 Mark

(Update: 11:45PM PST)

Nikkei ended up 144 points to 10,088.66. On the closing basis, it was the first time since June to close above 10,000. 10,088 is a rather curious number, as it is only 2 points off the mid point high of the double-bottom formation that I sort of saw.

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with such ease that it is creating an anxiety among investors (particularly retail investors) that they are missing out big time if they are not in the market, according to an inraday market update at Nikkei.co.jp (website of Nippon Keizai Shinbun).

At the end of the morning session, Nikkei rose 173.72 points (1.75%) to 10,118.27, the highest since July 1 when Nikkei rose above 10,000 intraday. (On a closing basis, Nikkei had 2 days above 10,000 back in June.)

According to Nikkei.co.jp, buying is broad-based. The optimism that the U.S. corporate earnings are improving is fueling the rally.

Yen rose against U.S. dollars and Euro, but that didn't seem to dampen the spirit of market participants.

They say Asia follows the U.S (which I don't necessarily agree), and Nikkei has been the laggard among high-flying Asian indices. But for this once, can Dow Jones Industrial Average follow Nikkei and go past 10,000?


In the chart, from the top, BSE 30 (India), Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng (Hong Kong), Strait Times Index (Singapore), Nikkei (Japan), and Dow Jones Industrial (US).

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Is the market pricing in the government?

Interesting thought from my friend.

After the sharp V recovery from March low, the market participants, whether they are amateur traders/investors like me or professionals, have been expecting a significant correction. The problem is, we've been waiting for that correction for nearly a month now. The market feels like it is refusing to go down, but too tired or not too eager to resume the upward movement soon. What is it up to? What is it doing?

I am intrigued by my friend's assertion that the market is pricing in the government. So I am plotting major political events of the past 1 year against the Dow Jones Industrial chart. I'm hoping to post soon. Stay tuned....

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