Arnie Gundersen: Lethal Levels of Radiation at Fukushima: What Are the Implications?

In the latest video on Fukushima (8/4/2011), Arnie Gundersen of Fairewinds Associates thinks 10-plus sieverts/hour radiation at the base of the exhaust duct is from cesium that has been released from the Containment Vessel of Reactor 1, condensed and accumulated at the bottom over time.

I don't necessarily agree with his hypothesis, but that's not what I was surprised when I saw the video. He says that the highly radioactive debris have been "bulldozed under", and when the debris are unearthed in the future we will see more high radiation spots.

I don't remember reading the news that the radioactive debris at the plant were ever actually buried. I remember one person who did say "Dig a hole, bury the debris so that the workers can work", Michio Ishikawa of the Japan Nuclear Technology Institute, a strong proponent of nuclear power who expressed a very pessimistic view of the TEPCO/government response to the Fukushima nuclear accident in late April.

Ishikawa also said the core had melted down and probably out of the RPV. That was officially admitted 2 weeks later. He also said a bridgehead must be built do the reactor, and forget about the turbine building. That also happened. Workers entered the reactor buildings, and they installed the heat exchangers for the Spent Fuel Pools (Reactors 2, 3, 4, and Reactor 1's heat exchanger has just been installed).

Is it possible that Ishikawa's suggestion on radioactive debris was also carried out? Or Is Gundersen simply mistaken? Or does he have some insider source?

Anyway, here's Mr. Gundersen's video:

Lethal Levels of Radiation at Fukushima: What Are the Implications? from Fairewinds Associates on Vimeo.

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#Fukushima I Nuke Plant: Ishikawa of JNTI Talks about Reactor Core Conditions

More on 77-year-old Michio Ishikawa of the Japan Nuclear Technology Institute on the situation at Fukushima I Nuke Plant, as he appeared on Asahi TV on April 29.

As I watched the video, I started to like Mr. Ishikawa, who continues to believe in the safety of nuclear power generation. He didn't mince his words, and said what they are doing at Fukushima I Nuke Plant is not working. That surprised some, including the host of the show, as Ishikawa is known as a strong proponent for the nuclear power generation and the nuclear industry.

I watched the segment (video No.2 out of 11) where he discussed the situation at Fukushima I Nuke Plant, particularly about the condition of the reactor core.

Here's what I'd add to the snippets on my previous post. (My summary translation of what Mr. Ishikawa said, not literal; my comment in square bracket):

About TEPCO's "roadmap:

"I believe what they are trying to achieve after 9 months is to cool the reactor cores and solidify them so that no radioactive materials can escape. But they are just doing peripheral tricks like water entombment and nitrogen gas injection. Nitrogen gas, it's dangerous, by the way.

"What they must do is to cool the reactor cores, and there's no way around it. It has to be done somehow."

About the condition of the reactor cores:

"I believe the fuel rods are completely melted. They may already have escaped the pressure vessel. Yes, they say 55% or 30%, but I believe they are all melted down. When the fuel rods melt, they melt from the middle part on down.

(Showing the diagram) "I think the temperature inside the melted core is 2000 degrees to 2000 and several hundred degrees Celsius. A crust has formed on the surface where the water hits. Decay heat is 2000 to 3000 kilowatts, and through the cracks on the crust the radioactive materials (mostly noble gas and iodine) are escaping into the air.

"Volatile gas has almost all escaped from the reactor by now.

"The water [inside the pressure vessel] is highly contaminated with uranium, plutonium, cesium, cobalt, in the concentration we've never seen before.

"My old colleague contacted me and shared his calculation with me. At the decay heat of 2000 kilowatt... There's a substance called cobalt 60. Highly radioactive, needs 1 to 1.5 meter thick shields. It kills people at 1000 curies. He calculated that there are 10 million curies of cobalt-60 in the reactor core. If 10% of cobalt-60 in the core dissolve into water, it's 1 million curies."

[He's an old-timer so he's used to curie instead of becquerel as a unit. 1 curie equals 3.7 x 10^10 becquerels (37,000,000,000 becquerels or 37 gigabecquerels).
10 million curies equals 370,000 terabecquerels, and 1 million curies equals 37,000 terabecquerels. I used this conversion table. Tell me I'm wrong! Cobalt-60 alone would make a Level 7 disaster...]

"They (TEPCO) want to circulate this highly contaminated water to cool the reactor core. Even if they are able to set up the circulation system, it will be a very difficult task to shield the radiation. It will be a very difficult work to build the system, but it has to be done.

"It is imperative to know the current condition of the reactor cores. It is my assumption [that the cores have melted], but wait one day, and we have water more contaminated with radioactive materials. This is a war, and we need to build a "bridgehead" at the reactor itself instead of fooling around with the turbine buildings or transporting contaminated water."

[As Ishikawa explains, a notable opponent of nuclear power, Tetsunari Iida (executive director of the Institute of Sustainable Energy Policy and Kyoto University graduate majoring in nuclear science) nods in deep agreement.]

About "war" at Fukushima I Nuke Plant:

"Take the debris clean-up job for example. They are picking up the debris and putting them in containers, as if this is the peacetime normal operation. This is a war. They should dig a hole somewhere and bury the radioactive debris and clean up later. What's important is to clear the site, using the emergency measures. Build a bridgehead to the reactor.

"The line of command is not clear, whether it is the government, TEPCO, or Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.

"Look squarely at the reactors and find out the true situation. [Trying to do something with] the turbine buildings is nothing but a caricature [a joke, a manga, a diversion]."

The show's host says "But wait a minute, Mr. Ishikawa, you are a proponent of nuclear power and we expected to hear from you that everything is going well at Fukushima..."

Mr. Ishikawa answers, "Well, if I'm allowed to tell a lie..."

Now, Mr. Tetsunari Iida speaks, agreeing to Mr. Ishikawa's "war" analogy:

"I totally agree with Mr. Ishikawa's assessment of the plant, and that this is a war. The government simply orders TEPCO to "do it". But it is like the Imperial General Headquarters (大本営) on the eve of the Sea of Japan Naval Battle during the Russo-Japanese War [in 1905] ordering merchant ship TEPCO to attack [the imperial Russian navy].

"The government should appoint a commander. TEPCO has a limit as a private business. No one knows what to do. We have to seek the advice from the best and the brightest in the world."

Mr. Hasegawa of Chunichi Shinbun jumps in, and says "We took the numbers from the government like 30% core melt as true, and went from there. But then Mr. Ishikawa says it's a total melt."

Then, Kohei Otsuka, the Vice Minister of Health and Welfare and politician from the ruling party (DPJ), sitting right next to Mr. Ishikawa, butts in, and warns everyone:

"Since none of us knows for sure the condition of the reactor cores, we shouldn't speculate on a national TV."

Mr. Hasegawa overrides the politician, and says "The real problem is that what no one knows is presented to us every day as if it is a fact, like 30% core melt in the chart."

Hahahahahahahahaha.

I wish Mr. Ishikawa had punched the light-weight politician in the face. At least he should have laughed at him.

Again, the video (2 of 11) for those of you who understand Japanese:

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#Fukushima I Nuke Plant: Japan Nuclear Technology Institute Senior Advisor Says "Reactors 1, 2, 3 All Had Complete Meltdown"

(UPDATED with the video in question at the end. He says not only the fuels have melted down completely but some of them may already be outside the Pressure Vessels.

(He also talks about potentially extremely high concentration of radioactive materials ("like we've never seen before") in the water inside the Pressure Vessel, as the result of core meltdown and continuous water injection.

(For more on his very frank assessment of the reactor core and the situation at Fukushima I Nuke Plant, PLEASE DO GO TO my latest post.)

（炉心溶融について詳しく石川さんの言をまとめたポストを日本語ブログに出してあります。そちらもご覧ください。）

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Michio Ishikawa, the former head of the Japan Nuclear Technology Institute and the current "most senior" advisor to the Institute, appeared on an Asahi TV program on April 29 and shared his candid assessment of Fukushima I Nuke Plant accident.

He is known as one of the most ardent proponents of nuclear power generation. The Japan Nuclear Technology Institute was set up in 2005 by Ishikawa in order to represent the interest of the nuclear industry in Japan and promote nuclear energy.

People who watched this Asahi TV program were surprised to hear him contradict the official government "narrative" (I hate that word, but in this case it is exactly what it is, a "narrative" as opposed to reality) about the plant accident, even as he continues to insist nuclear power plants are safe and 100 milli-sieverts cumulative radiation is perfectly safe not just for the plant workers but for everyone.

Here are some of the comments he made during the program, jotted down by a viewer as he watched the program, and supplemented later with tweets by others. He weaves his own narratives like "no one anticipated such an accident" (oh yes many people did). Original in Japanese, my English translation, [my comment in italic in square bracket]:

「世界が予想しなかった事故」
"It's an accident that no one in the world anticipated."

[Uh huh. "Who could have known?" That's what every crook in a government anywhere says.]

「天災というのはそんなにしょっちゅう起きてたら天災じゃない」
"If an Act of God happens all the time, it's no longer an Act of God."

[Literal translation of the Japanese word 天災 is "calamity from heaven", a calamity that mere mortals have no control over. The government, the industry, TEPCO are therefore guiltless.]

「福島の事故は津波がなければ起きていなかった」
"The Fukushima accident never would have happened without tsunami."

[Nice try, Mr. Ishikawa. But it was a power failure caused by the earthquake that triggered the accident, and the only transmission tower TEPCO owned that fell during the earthquake was the one that supplied power to the plant. More later.]

「8時間以内に電気が来ていれば、今の事態にはなっていない」
"If the power was restored within 8 hours, we wouldn't have the situation we have today."

[Yeah? How could the power have been restored in 8 hours?]

「福島は地震や老朽化によって事故を起こしたわけじゃないんです」
"The accident didn't happen because of the earthquake or the aging plant."

[Yes it did.]

「原発は30年どころか、60年、100年だって大丈夫ですよ」
"A nuclear power plant lasts not just for 30 years, but for 60, 100 years."

[And uranium and plutonium will last for "eternity" in human scale.]

「いま福島原発で通常時のルールのまま些末な対策ばかりやっている、非常時の対応が必要」
"At Fukushima I Nuke Plant, they've been applying minor countermeasures as if it is a normal situation. They need the emergency response."

[Thus the bath salt as tracer - the only comical relief in the whole sorry saga.]

「今は放射線との戦争状態、まったく東電の対応はなっていない」
Right now, it's the war with radiation. TEPCO's response is horrendous.

[And where is the government? The response from your own industry, other than trying to win a contract for cleanup jobs? And what do you expect from a utility company?]

「今の福島原発は戦争状態、戦場なんですよ」
Fukushima I Nuke Plant is at war, it's a war zone.

[That I agree. But the US NRC has now joined the Japanese government and says it's under control. Hahaha.]

「政府の発表は間違い。燃料棒は全部溶け落ちてしまっていると思う」
The government announcement is wrong. I think all the fuel rods have been melted down.

「水棺などといってモタモタしてないで、炉心を早く冷やすことに一心になれ」
Don't bother with water entombment. Focus on cooling the core as soon as possible.

（トレーラーハウスを被災地に導入すべきとの意見に）「また津波が来ますよ」とにやけながら発言。
(Responding to the idea of introducing trailer houses in the earthquake/tsunami affected area, with a smirk on this face) Another tsunami will come.

[So he's expecting another big earthquake that will cause big tsunami?]

「20mSvぐらいで避難させているのはおかしい。100mSvまで安全なんだから帰らせたらいい」
It's wrong to evacuate people at mere 20 milli-sieverts. It's safe up to 100 milli-sieverts, so let them go home.

[There we go. Speaking like a true proponent of safe nuclear power. It's safe up to 100 milli-sieverts for civilians! Maybe he should go up there and cheer up the residents.]

「原発の作業員だって250mSvまで大丈夫なんだから」
Nuclear plant workers are safe up to 250 milli-sieverts.

[Mr. Ishikawa, why don't you take TEPCO's top management with you to the plant, and scoop out the contaminated water with a bucket and help the workers? No need for protection. It's safe.]

（原子力を推進したのは東電なのか政府なのかという質問に）「東電ってことはない、政府の方だ」
(Responding to the question whether it is TEPCO or the Japanese government who has promoted nuclear power) Not TEPCO. It's the government.

「浜岡原発はやめる必要はない。強度はしっかりしている。マグニチュード９でも福島は持った。浜岡でも心配することはない。津波は、電源さえきちんとしておけば大丈夫」
No need to stop Hamaoka Nuke Plant [the one on the earthquake faults and in the supposed center of Tokai quake]. It is built strong. Fukushima survived a Magnitude 9 earthquake. [Well, not really.] So, no need to worry about Hamaoka. As long as electricity is available, no need to fear tsunami. [Rrrriiiggghhht. Haven't you heard the news yet, that the nuke plants in Japan do not have adequate backup power supplies to keep cooling the reactors? ]

「私の仲間で原爆の仇をとるんだといって（原子力発電の道に）進んだものもいる」
Among my colleagues, there are those who embarked on the career in nuclear power generation as a revenge against the nuclear bombs [dropped on Japan].

[Well, that revenge has turned out to be the revenge against their own people. How sad.]

For those who understand Japanese, here's the video (part 2 of 11) where he discusses the melted core:

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