Stanford University Researchers: "#Fukushima Radiation May Cause 1,300 Cancer Deaths Around the World"

"The best estimates of cancer cases resulting from the Fukushima disaster is 180, and range from 24 to 2,500", according to the Bloomberg News article below.

(180 cases?)

Further, the article says:

The most likely number of cancer deaths is 130 and estimated to range from 15 to 1,300, the authors said, adding that the ranges reflect uncertainties about emissions and the methods the researchers used to calculate their impact.

(130 deaths?? Worldwide?)

The paper by the Stanford researchers further says 2 to 12 cases of cancer may happen among the plant workers.

From Bloomberg News (7/17/2012; part, emphasis is mine):

Fukushima Radiation May Cause 1,300 Cancer Deaths, Study Finds

By Jason Gale - Jul 17, 2012 3:15 PM PT

Radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant may cause as many as 1,300 cancer deaths globally, according to a study that showed fallout from Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s (9501) crippled reactors may be deadlier than predicted.

The March 2011 nuclear disaster may cause as many as 2,500 cases of cancer, mostly in Japan, Stanford University scientists said. They incorporated emission estimates into 3-D global atmospheric modeling to predict the effects of radiation exposure, which was detected as far away as the U.S. and Europe.

Cancer cases may have been at least 10 times greater if the radiation hadn’t mostly fallen in the sea, said Mark Z. Jacobson, co-author of the first detailed analysis of the event’s global health effects. Identical emissions from a hypothetical accident at California’s Diablo Canyon Power Plant would be 25 percent deadlier because of differing weather patterns, according to the study published yesterday in the journal Energy & Environmental Science.

“There was a lot of luck involved,” said Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford, in a telephone interview. “The effects vary significantly with the meteorological conditions and the only reason this wasn’t a lot worse was because 81 percent of all the emissions were deposited over the ocean.”

The failure of backup power at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant, located 135 miles (220 kilometers) north of Tokyo, caused the worst atomic accident since Chernobyl in 1986.

Radiation fallout forced the evacuation of about 160,000 people surrounding the plant. It also left about 132 square kilometers as a no-go zone, some of it uninhabitable for decades. Prolonged exposure to radiation in the air, ground and food can damage DNA, causing leukemia and other cancers.

The best estimates of cancer cases resulting from the Fukushima disaster is 180, and range from 24 to 2,500, yesterday’s study said.

The most likely number of cancer deaths is 130 and estimated to range from 15 to 1,300, the authors said, adding that the ranges reflect uncertainties about emissions and the methods the researchers used to calculate their impact.

“They have demonstrated there are no significant public health effects” from radiation exposure, said Evan Douple, associate chief of research at the Hiroshima Radiation Effects Research Foundation. “Their best estimate of 130 cancer deaths in Japan would be lost in the background wash of the hundreds of thousands of cancer deaths that would be occurring in the million or so people in the population exposed.”

The biggest health effects were psychological, said Douple, whose team is studying the impact from Fukushima. Stress from the earthquake, tsunami and meltdown may cause a range of health effects, including cancer, he said.

(Full article at the link.)

Excellent. Bloomberg even quotes in the last two paragraphs above the researcher at the institution whose antecedent is the infamous Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission.

Only 130 deaths worldwide (though mostly from Japan) from 3 core melts and 900,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials (iodine equivalent).

The abstract from Energy & Environmental Science also says that radiation exposure to workers at the plant may result in 2 to 12 cases of cancer:

This study quantifies worldwide health effects of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on 11 March 2011. Effects are quantified with a 3-D global atmospheric model driven by emission estimates and evaluated against daily worldwide Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) measurements and observed deposition rates. Inhalation exposure, ground-level external exposure, and atmospheric external exposure pathways of radioactive iodine-131, cesium-137, and cesium-134 released from Fukushima are accounted for using a linear no-threshold (LNT) model of human exposure. Exposure due to ingestion of contaminated food and water is estimated by extrapolation. We estimate an additional 130 (15–1100) cancer-related mortalities and 180 (24–1800) cancer-related morbidities incorporating uncertainties associated with the exposure–dose and dose–response models used in the study. We also discuss the LNT model's uncertainty at low doses. Sensitivities to emission rates, gas to particulate I-131 partitioning, and the mandatory evacuation radius around the plant are also explored, and may increase upper bound mortalities and morbidities in the ranges above to 1300 and 2500, respectively. Radiation exposure to workers at the plant is projected to result in 2 to 12 morbidities. An additional [similar]600 mortalities have been reported due to non-radiological causes such as mandatory evacuations. Lastly, a hypothetical accident at the Diablo Canyon Power Plant in California, USA with identical emissions to Fukushima was studied to analyze the influence of location and seasonality on the impact of a nuclear accident. This hypothetical accident may cause [similar]25% more mortalities than Fukushima despite California having one fourth the local population density due to differing meteorological conditions.

*Definition of "morbidity": The rate of incidence of a disease.

One of the researchers, Dr. Mark Z. Jacobson, is a Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University, California. I can see that he may be good at radioactive materials dispersion modeling. But at putting the numbers on cancer cases and deaths?

Tweet

Radiation Effects Research Foundation's Latest Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors: "There Was No Threshold"

Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) is the successor organization of the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC) to conduct investigations of the late effects of radiation among the atomic-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

In its 14th report on mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors published in March this year in the "Radiation Research" magazine, the official journal of the US Radiation Research Society, the researchers at RERF say there was no "threshold":

• Importantly, for solid cancers the additive radiation risk (i.e., excess cancer cases per 104 person-years per Gy) continues to increase throughout life with a linear dose–response relationship.

• The estimated lowest dose range with a significant ERR [excess relative risk] for all solid cancer was 0 to 0.20 Gy, and a formal dose-threshold analysis indicated no threshold; i.e., zero dose was the best estimate of the threshold.

According to the blogger who posted the link to the paper says he/she called the Ministry of Health and Welfare on May 1 and asked: "Ministry of Health and Ministry of Foreign Affairs oversee the RERF. I understand from this report that it has now been epidemiologically proven that even a low-dose radiation exposure resulted in negative health effect such as dose-dependent increase in cancer. This is contrary to the position of the Japanese government which is based on the IRCP assertion that there is no epidemiological proof that there is a health risk in low-dose radiation exposure but the radiation protection standards are set assuming there is such a risk. Is there any press release planned by the Ministry of Health? Is my understanding correct?" The answer from the official in charge at the Ministry was, according to him/her, "Your understanding is correct. The Ministry doesn't have a plan for any press release, because the RERF has already done so."

There is hardly any coverage of this paper by the mainstream media in Japan.

While the RERF continues to study (and not treat) the effect of atomic bombs on human health, there is a worthy successor in Fukushima Medical University, headed by Dr. Shunichi Yamashita. He has been mostly quite successful in convincing the residents in Fukushima Prefecture to continue to live in Fukushima. That gives him close to 2 million subjects to study. By the way, Dr. Yamashita's stance is that "unless you are exposed to radiation at 100 millisieverts or more in a single episode, there is no increase in cancer risks". Well the RERF study seems to finally disprove that.

The abstract part of the paper by Ozasa, K., Shimizu, Y., Suyama, A., Kasagi, F., Soda, M., Grant, E. J., Sakata, R., Sugiyama, H. and Kodama, K. "Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors, Report 14, 1950–2003: An Overview of Cancer and Noncancer Diseases. Radiat. Res. 177, 229–243 (2012)":

This is the 14th report in a series of periodic general reports on mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation to investigate the late health effects of the radiation from the atomic bombs. During the period 1950–2003, 58% of the 86,611 LSS cohort members with DS02 dose estimates have died. The 6 years of additional follow-up since the previous report provide substantially more information at longer periods after radiation exposure (17% more cancer deaths), especially among those under age 10 at exposure (58% more deaths). Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, and effect modification by gender, age at exposure, and attained age. The risk of all causes of death was positively associated with radiation dose. Importantly, for solid cancers the additive radiation risk (i.e., excess cancer cases per 104 person-years per Gy) continues to increase throughout life with a linear dose–response relationship. The sex-averaged excess relative risk per Gy was 0.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.32, 0.53] for all solid cancer at age 70 years after exposure at age 30 based on a linear model. The risk increased by about 29% per decade decrease in age at exposure (95% CI: 17%, 41%). The estimated lowest dose range with a significant ERR for all solid cancer was 0 to 0.20 Gy, and a formal dose-threshold analysis indicated no threshold; i.e., zero dose was the best estimate of the threshold. The risk of cancer mortality increased significantly for most major sites, including stomach, lung, liver, colon, breast, gallbladder, esophagus, bladder and ovary, whereas rectum, pancreas, uterus, prostate and kidney parenchyma did not have significantly increased risks. An increased risk of non-neoplastic diseases including the circulatory, respiratory and digestive systems was observed, but whether these are causal relationships requires further investigation. There was no evidence of a radiation effect for infectious or external causes of death.

Tweet

#Radiation in Japan: Map of "Black Rain" Finally Made 66 Years After Hiroshima Bombing

Speaking of RERF - Radiation Effect Research Foundation - which succeeded the notorious ABCC - Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission - in 1975, RERF just came up with the area map of so-called "black rain" after the Hiroshima bombing. They had the survey data of 13,000 people all along, but sat on it for 66 years.

And surprise, surprise. The map shows the area where the "black rain" - radioactive fallout that fell with the rain - fell to be much, much bigger than what the government has admitted so far.

And not at all surprisingly, Toshiteru Okubo, chairman of RERF, says "Personally I do not think this data is important. It's hard to believe the black rain caused an acute radiation sickness anyway."

The chairman is right. People who have said they suffer the effect of radioactive fallout that they received by the black rain are not suffering an acute radiation sickness that would have caused them to die in a short period of time after the exposure.

From Yomiuri Shinbun, local Hiroshima version (12/21/2011):

日米の共同研究機関・放射線影響研究所（放影研、広島市南区・長崎市）が、原爆投下後に降った「黒い雨」を浴びた約１万３０００人の調査データを基に作製した分布図が公表された２０日、援護策の拡充を求める住民団体などから「援護地域の拡大につながる可能性がある」と期待の声が上がった。一方、放影研は「新しく判明したことはない」と健康被害の解明には否定的だが、国の検討会にデータが提供される見通しで、援護地域見直しをめぐる議論が注目される。

On December 20, Radiation Effect Research Foundation, a cooperative Japan-US research organization (RERF, Minami-ku in Hiroshima City and in Nagasaki City) disclosed the distribution map of "black rain" that fell after the nuclear bomb exploded over Hiroshima. The map was created from the survey data of about 13,000 people who were exposed to the black rain. Citizens' groups calling for more assistance for the bomb victims are hopeful that this may result in more areas becoming eligible for assistance. On the other hand, RERF says "There is no new discovery", insisting [the map] would not help in understanding health damages. But it is likely that the data will be submitted to a study group of the national government, and discussions may ensue as to whether the support areas should be revised.

　援護対象外の住民らで組織する県「黒い雨」原爆被害者の会連絡協議会の高野正明会長（７３）は「データの公表は有意義だ」と評価。その上で「現在の援護対象地域外でも降ったとする分布があり、援護地域の拡大に役立てば」と期待を寄せた。

Masaaki Takano, chairman of the Council of "Black Rain" Atomic Bomb Victims, praised the disclosure of the data as significant. He is hopeful that it will be used to expand the support areas, as the data shows the black rain fell outside the current support areas.

　県と広島市などは２０１０年７月、被爆者ら２万７１４７人分のアンケートを基に、厚生労働省に対して、指定する降雨地域より広範に降ったとして、援護地域の拡大を求める要望書を出した。この日の分布図公開について、市調査課の漆原正浩課長は「これまでの認定地域とは一部で食い違いがあるのがわかる。貴重なデータだが、どのように利用されるか国の判断を注視していきたい」と話した。

In July 2010, Hiroshima Prefecture and Hiroshima City submitted a request to the Ministry of Health and Labor to expand the support areas based on the survey of 27,147 people including atomic bomb victims, as the rain fell in much wider areas than the designated support area. Commenting on today's disclosure of the distribution map, a Hiroshima City official said, "The map clearly shows the areas [where the rain fell] that are different from the existing support areas. It's valuable data, but we will wait to see how the national government will decide to use it."

　放影研はすでに厚労省に今回のデータを提供。同省原子爆弾被爆者援護対策室の和田康紀室長は「（公開されたデータを）検討会で議論するかどうかは、座長と相談して決めたい」とした。

RERF has already submitted the data to the Ministry of Health and Labor. The head of the section in the Ministry to support atomic bomb victims said, "We would like to consult with the chairman of the study group to decide whether the data (disclosed today) should be discussed in the stidy group."

　一方、放影研で記者会見した大久保利晃理事長は、雨が降った時期や量などが確認できず、「爆心地付近で直爆を受けた人を中心にした調査。（黒い雨のデータにするには）内容が簡単過ぎるし、偏りがある」と指摘。その上で「私個人は、今回のデータがそれほど大事とは思っていない。雨を浴びて、重い急性症状を引き起こしたとも考えられない」との見方を示した。

On the other hand, Toshiteru Okubo, chairman of RERF, held a press conference at RERF [in Hiroshima City]. He pointed out that the timing of the precipitation and the amount could not be confirmed, and said "The survey was done on people who had a direct exposure to the atomic bomb near the hypocenter. To call this the data for black rain, the data is too simplistic and biased." He added, "Personally I don't think the data is that important. It's hard to believe the black rain caused an acute radiation illness anyway."

I couldn't find the map posted anywhere at the RERF site, which Chairman Okubo is holding in the picture below (from Yomiuri):

Tweet