(OT) Tokyo Gubernatorial Race: Guess Who's Leading the Pack

Yoichi Masuzoe (TV personality, former Minister of Health), supported by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komei Party (ruling coalition in the national government): audience in 10s.

Morihiro Hosokawa (former prime minister), supported by former Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi (LDP), Democratic Party of Japan, Social Democrats: audience in 1,000s.

Toshio Tamogami (former Chief of Staff of the Self Defense Air Force), unofficially supported by Shintaro Ishihara: audience in 100s.

Kenji Utsunomiya (attorney - labor law) supported by Japanese Communist Party: audience in 100s - 1000s.

You would think Hosokawa is leading the race, and you would be dead wrong, if so-called opinion polls by the Japanese media are to be believed.

Here's one from anti-nuclear Tokyo Shinbun:

Masuzoe: 25.8%
Hosokawa: 13.3%
Utsunomiya: 6.9%
Tamogami: 6.4%
Undecided: 50%

The Japanese media has already selected Masuzoe as the winner for reasons only known to themselves, no matter how seemingly unpopular he is with Tokyo residents.

Prime Minister Abe and Komei Party President Yamaguchi are going to join Masuzoe on Sunday February 2nd and give speeches in support of Masuzoe. The ostensible reason is to keep Masuzoe and his staff alert, not counting on the "huge lead" he already has. Sponichi (one of the tabloids) reports the likely venue will be the middle of Ginza in Tokyo, where both Masuzoe and Hosokawa with Koizumi are scheduled to speak.

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Tokyo Gubernatorial Race Descending into a Whole Lot of Mess

Farce, you may say.

Titbits from the candidates and their supporters, from Sankei Shinbun (1/14/2014) and Nikkei Shinbun (1/15/2014):

1. Who is more like the "leader"? The one who's not running.

Morihiro Hosokawa, after meeting with ex-LDP PM Koizumi and declaring his candidacy on his birthday:

原発問題は知事として非常にやりがいのある仕事だ

"To deal with nuclear power plant issues is a very worthwhile job for me as a governor."

Junichiro Koizumi, after meeting with ex-PM Hosokawa and being asked why he was supporting Hosokawa:

東京が原発なしでやっていける姿を見せれば、必ず国を変えることができる

"If Tokyo shows it can survive [and prosper] without nuclear power plants, it can definitely change the whole nation."

For Mr. Koizumi (pictured right), January 14 was not Hosokawa's birthday, but the day, in the old lunar calendar (December 14), when 47 samurais took revenge on behalf of their lord who in their minds suffered injustice. Lunar December 14 is not January 14, but that's how Koizumi felt anyway.

Koizumi projects a future vision, while Hosokawa doesn't. The former lasted 5 years as the prime minister, the latter 9 months. Oh well.

2. Who is "anti-nuclear"? Just about everybody now (except for the ex-Chief of Staff of the Air Self Defense Force).

Yoichi Masuzoe and LDP backing him are scrambling to make the nuclear power issue a non-issue in the election. Masuzoe, who has been pro-nuclear, now says:

"I have always been saying zero nuke plant."

meaning he is all for gradually lessen the dependency on nuclear power. Prime Minister Abe chimes in from Ethiopia that he is hoping that the debate will be well-balanced, not just about the nuclear issue. As Mr. Koizumi remains popular and influential within LDP, the Abe administration officials are very reluctant to accuse Koizumi of "treason".


3. Anti-nuclear candidate Kenji Utsunomiya and his supporters in disarray (already)

Clearly, Mr. Utsunomiya and his political backers (Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party) didn't expect the entry of Morihiro Hosokawa in the race with the backing from Junichiro Koizumi, who has been quite vocal in his anti-nuclear message of late.

Social Democrats are trying to back out from supporting him, saying the anti-nuclear faction should rally behind Hosokawa. Social Dems bet too early, I suppose.

Mr. Utsunomiya himself is accusing Mr. Koizumi for forcing a single-issue campaign.

Some people ask, "What about yourself, Mr. Utsunomiya?"


4. Who is for 2020 Tokyo Olympic? Everyone.

Yoichi Masuzoe:

五輪という大きな目標があれば全力で東京を改造することができる

With a big target like Olympics, we can truly transform Tokyo.

Morihiro Hosokawa:

五輪の一部を東北に

Part of the Olympics should be held in Tohoku

Kenji Utsunomiya:

環境に配慮した簡素な五輪

Simple, and environmentally-friendly Olympics

The official start of the election campaign is on January 23, and the election will be held on February 9.

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