Nikkei Shinbun's Interview of Haruki Madarame (5/7): No Impression That TEPCO President Shimizu Wanted to Withdraw Workers from #Fukushima I NPP

(Continued from Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4 from Nikkei Shinbun: Testimony of Dr. Madarame, in the third year of the accident: "Worst case scenario was possible for Fukushima" by Junichi Taki, editorial board member)

――14日夜から東電の撤退問題が浮上する

---The issue of TEPCO withdrawing from the plant surfaced in the evening of March 14, 2011.

「撤退問題の議論は３つの段階を経たように思う。海江田経産相が伊藤哲朗・危機管理監（当時）と安井正也・保安院付（当時）と私を呼んで、東電が全員撤退を考えていると伝えた。私は免震重要棟があるのでまだ頑張れるはずだ。いったん撤退してしまうと二度と戻れなくなり、１号から６号まですべての原子炉と燃料プールが危機にさらされると、撤退に反対した」

"I believe there were three stages of discussions regarding the withdrawal. Minister of Economy Kaieda called Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary for Crisis Management Tetsuro Ito, NISA's Masaya Yasui and me and told us that TEPCO was considering complete withdrawal [from the plant]. I told them I was against the withdrawal. They could hang on in the Anti-Seismic Building. Once they withdrew they wouldn't be able to come back, and all reactors and spent fuel pools would be in danger."

「その後、政治家だけの相談があり、首相を起こして御前会議となった。撤退は許さないが結論で、清水正孝社長（当時）を呼ぶことになった」

"Afterwards, politicians met by themselves. Then we woke up the prime minister and held a meeting in front of him. The conclusion was that we wouldn't allow withdrawal, and that we would call TEPCO's President Masataka Shimizu [to the Prime Minister's Official Residence]."

■「清水社長がその場でごまかそうとしたとの印象はまったくなかった

"I didn't get the impression at all that President Shimizu was trying to make an evasive answer."

「清水社長は一人で総理執務室に入ってきた。清水社長が即座に『撤退は考えていない』と話したので、私は『聞いていたのと話が違う』と思った。清水社長がその場でごまかそうとしたとの印象はまったくなかった。なにか誤解があったのかもしれない。ただ経営者としてこのままでは部下が死ぬ可能性があると思ったとき、ほかに手だてはないかと考えていたとしてもおかしくはない

"President Shimizu came into the Prime Minister's Office all by himself. He immediately said he was not thinking of withdrawal. I thought, 'That's not what I was told.' I didn't get the impression at all that President Shimizu was trying to make an evasive answer on the spot. There may have been some misunderstanding. But it was possible that he was thinking of some other way when he, as the president, thought his men could die."

班目氏の行動（３月14日）
9:53 原子力災害対策本部の会合（この後、首相応接室を退去し官邸５階の小部屋などに滞在、呼び出しに応じ応接室へ）
11:01 首相応接室のテレビで３号機水素爆発を確認
11:40 官房長官記者会見に同席
13:40ころ 東電から福島第１で働く人の線量限度引き上げの要望、国際基準などを関係者に説明
16:15 吉田所長と電話で話し、２号機逃し安全弁の開放を急ぐよう助言
18:00ころ 20～30ｋｍ圏内の屋内退避を首相に助言、福山副官房長官室で米国へ提供する情報の整理
21:03 官房長官記者会見に同席

Dr. Madarame on March 14, 2011:
9:53AM Meeting of the Nuclear Disaster Response Headquarters (afterwards he stayed in a room on the 5th floor of the PM Official Residence, and went to the drawing room when called)
11:01AM Saw Reactor 3 hydrogen explosion on TV in the PM drawing room
11:40AM Accompanied Chief Cabinet Secretary in press conference
1:40PM Explained to people involved about TEPCO's request [?} to raise the dose limit for workers at Fukushima I NPP and international standards
4:15PM Spoke with Plant Manager Yoshida on the phone, advised him to open the Reactor 2's [steam] relief safety valve as soon as possible
6:00PM Advised Prime Minister to designate areas between 20 and 30 kilometers radii as sheltering indoors, compiled information to be provided to the US
9:03PM Accompanied Chief Cabinet Secretary in press conference

Two things here that I didn't know - that Mr. Kan was asleep, and that Mr. Shimizu came to the PM Official Residence alone. The latter was rather surprising, as I remember Mr. Shimizu at that time being portrayed as ineffective, weak and timid, who could never be able to stand in front of politicians - let alone the irascible PM Kan.

Mr. Naoto Kan continues to take crecit for "stopping" TEPCO from "withdrawing".

The National Diet Independent Commission's conclusion in June 2012 was different. The Commission acknowledged that TEPCO didn't consider a complete withdrawal from the plant and that PM's Office did not stop TEPCO from "withdrawing". (See my post on June 9, 2012.)

TEPCO did not intend to "withdraw" (撤退 tettai); instead it wanted to "take shelter" (退避 taihi) from extremely high radiation after the Reactor 3 explosion. But for Messrs Kan and Kaieda, who weren't trained in law and had no experience as bureaucrats at top ministries, the distinction was too subtle.

From my June 9, 2012 post:

Both Mr. Kan and Mr. Kaieda also said they thought it was an "all-out" withdrawal, because Mr. Shimizu didn't use the word "partial". Shimizu said he was surprised that the administration understood his carefully chosen word "temporary shelter" - "taihi" as "all-out withdrawal" - "tettai".

The Diet commission's conclusion was that it was a case of miscommunication. TEPCO's Shimizu thought he was telling these officials that he wanted his workers to temporarily take shelter in a less irradiated location while keeping the core people at the plant. Messrs Kan and Kaieda thought "taihi" and "tettai" were the same thing and decided Shimizu was announcing an all-out withdrawal from the plant. It seems Mr. Shimizu's mistake was he thought he was talking to high-ranking bureaucrats with whom he had dealt before the accident. Unlike many politicians neither Mr. Kan nor Mr. Kaieda had been trained in law (Kan was an applied physics major, Kaieda political science) or through elite bureaucracy. (Mr. Edano would have understood Mr. Shimizu perfectly, but Mr. Edano says he never spoke with Mr. Shimizu.)

TEPCO workers and workers from affiliate companies (Hitachi, Toshiba, Kandenko, etc. and their subcontractors) remained at the plant as the radiation levels were several hundred millisieverts/hour and at one point exceeding 1 sievert/hour (see the AP article from 3/16/2011 at the link), with only 2 meals per day and sleeping on the floor as the government refused to provide workers with better food and other provisions. And the world hailed them as heroes as "Fukushima 50".

Mr. Edano, then-Chief Cabinet Secretary, is a lawyer.

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#Fukushima I NPP: Painstakingly Slow Cleanup, One Vehicle at a Time

After almost three years since the start of the nuclear accident on March 11, 2011, cleanup efforts continue extremely slowly (and probably manually by human workers). Here are some before-and-after photos taken by TEPCO, but most of them are close-ups. You do not get much sense of how the plant has been de-cluttered overall (if at all).

The area photographed is between the ocean side of the turbine buildings and the embankment along the plant harbor. Radiation levels remain high here. Hoses and pipes that transport water run amid the debris.

From TEPCO's photos and videos library, 1/30/2014 (more photos at the link):

Before:

After:

Before:

After:

Before:

After:

Before:

After:

TEPCO had a chance to clear the site in March 2011, when large SDF tanks fitted with "dozer armour" (plate to push out debris) were sent to the plant. (See my March 20, 2011 post.) But the tanks were never used. Why? Because TEPCO had already had workers lay electric cables over the debris in their haste to restore the power to the plant, and they couldn't remove the debris without damaging the cables.

(Sigh.)

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(OT) Tokyo Gubernatorial Race: Guess Who's Leading the Pack

Yoichi Masuzoe (TV personality, former Minister of Health), supported by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komei Party (ruling coalition in the national government): audience in 10s.

Morihiro Hosokawa (former prime minister), supported by former Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi (LDP), Democratic Party of Japan, Social Democrats: audience in 1,000s.

Toshio Tamogami (former Chief of Staff of the Self Defense Air Force), unofficially supported by Shintaro Ishihara: audience in 100s.

Kenji Utsunomiya (attorney - labor law) supported by Japanese Communist Party: audience in 100s - 1000s.

You would think Hosokawa is leading the race, and you would be dead wrong, if so-called opinion polls by the Japanese media are to be believed.

Here's one from anti-nuclear Tokyo Shinbun:

Masuzoe: 25.8%
Hosokawa: 13.3%
Utsunomiya: 6.9%
Tamogami: 6.4%
Undecided: 50%

The Japanese media has already selected Masuzoe as the winner for reasons only known to themselves, no matter how seemingly unpopular he is with Tokyo residents.

Prime Minister Abe and Komei Party President Yamaguchi are going to join Masuzoe on Sunday February 2nd and give speeches in support of Masuzoe. The ostensible reason is to keep Masuzoe and his staff alert, not counting on the "huge lead" he already has. Sponichi (one of the tabloids) reports the likely venue will be the middle of Ginza in Tokyo, where both Masuzoe and Hosokawa with Koizumi are scheduled to speak.

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(OT) Echo of Past World Wars from Davos, as Chinese Professional Channels "Iojima" and Japan's Prime Minister Channels Evans-Pritchard

in comparing the current Sino-Japan relationship to the British-German relationship right before the World War I.

Disconcerting remarks that seem to have freaked out many who attended the events (two separate events at Davos - confab of the rich and the powerful in the world), but there is hardly a peep about them in Japan. I don't think either remarks were reported by the Japanese media.

First, about the incredible Chinese professional, from Business Insider's Henry Blodget, who was at a dinner at Davos where he heard the following (1/22/2014; emphasis is mine):

I went to one of those fancy private dinners last night in Davos, Switzerland.

Like most of the events here at the 2014 World Economic Forum, the dinner was conducted under what are known as "Chatham House Rules," which means that I can't tell you who was there.

I can tell you what was said, though. And one thing that was said rattled a lot of people at the table.

During the dinner, the hosts passed a microphone around the table and asked guests to speak briefly about something that they thought would interest the group.

One of the guests, an influential Chinese professional, talked about the simmering conflict between China and Japan over a group of tiny islands in the Pacific.

China and Japan, you may recall, each claim ownership of these islands, which are little more than a handful of uninhabited rocks between Japan and Taiwan. Recently, the Japan-China tension around the islands has increased, and has led many analysts, including Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, to worry aloud about the potential for a military conflict.

The Chinese professional at dinner last night did not seem so much worried about a military conflict as convinced that one was inevitable. And not because of any strategic value of the islands themselves (they're basically worthless), but because China and Japan increasingly hate each other.

The Chinese professional mentioned the islands in the context of the recent visit by Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. The Yasukuni Shrine is a Shinto shrine where Japanese killed in Japan's many military conflicts over the centuries are memorialized — including the Japanese leaders responsible for the attacks and atrocities Japan perpetrated in World War 2. A modern-day Japanese leader visiting the Yasukuni Shrine is highly controversial, because it is viewed by Japan's former (and current) enemies as an act of honoring war criminals.

That's certainly the way the Chinese professional at the dinner viewed it.

He used the words "honoring war criminals," to describe Abe's visit to the shrine. And, with contained but obvious anger, he declared this decision "crazy."

He then explained that the general sense in China is that China and Japan have never really settled their World War 2 conflict. Japan and America settled their conflict, he explained, and as a result, the fighting stopped. But China and Japan have never really put the war behind them.

The Chinese professional acknowledged that if China asserted control over the disputed islands by attacking Japan, America would have to stand with Japan. And he acknowledged that China did not want to provoke America.

But then he said that many in China believe that China can accomplish its goals — smacking down Japan, demonstrating its military superiority in the region, and establishing full control over the symbolic islands — with a surgical invasion.

In other words, by sending troops onto the islands and planting the flag.

The Chinese professional suggested that this limited strike could be effected without provoking a broader conflict. The strike would have great symbolic value, demonstrating to China, Japan, and the rest of the world who was boss. But it would not be so egregious a move that it would force America and Japan to respond militarily and thus lead to a major war.

Well, when the Chinese professional finished speaking, there was stunned silence around the table.

The assembled CEOs, investors, executives, and journalists stared quietly at the Chinese professional. Then one of them, a businessman, reached for the microphone.

"Do you realize that this is absolutely crazy?" the businessman asked.

"Do you realize that this is how wars start?"

"Do you realize that those islands are worthless pieces of rock... and you're seriously suggesting that they're worth provoking a global military conflict over?"

The Chinese professional said that, yes, he realized that. But then, with conviction that further startled everyone, he said that the islands' value was symbolic and that their symbolism was extremely important.

Challenged again, the Chinese professional distanced himself from his earlier remarks, saying that he might be "sensationalizing" the issue and that he, personally, was not in favor of a war with Japan. But he still seemed certain that one was deserved.

I'm far from an expert on the Japan-China conflict, and I'll leave the analyses of this situation to those who are. All I can tell you is that a respected, smart, and influential Chinese professional suggested at dinner last night that a surgical invasion by China of the disputed islands is justified and would finally settle the Japan-China conflict without triggering a broader war. And that suggestion freaked out everyone in the room.

Japan's prime minister is equally incredible when he suggested to Financial Times' Gideon Rachman that he, too, sees a Sino-Japan conflict as "conceivable" and is quite nonchalant about it.

From Gideon Rachman's blog at FT (1/22/2014; part, emphasis is mine):

Here at Davos, I’ve just had the opportunity to moderate a discussion between the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, and a group of international journalists. I asked Mr Abe whether a war between China and Japan was “conceivable”.

Interestingly, he did not take the chance to say that any such conflict was out of the question. In fact, Mr Abe explicitly compared the tensions between China and Japan now to the rivalry between Britain and Germany in the years before the first world war, remarking that it was a “similar situation”.

The comparison, he explained, lies in the fact that Britain and Germany – like China and Japan – had a strong trading relationship. But in 1914, this had not prevented strategic tensions leading to the outbreak of conflict.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at UK's Telegraph said this in November last year:

...Today's escalating spat has echoes of the Agadir crisis in 1911, the stand-off between Wilhelmine Germany and the Franco-British Entente in the final years before the First World War.

In case you have forgotten, Kaiser Wilhelm sent the warship Panther to Morocco in 1911 to prevent French annexation. The Kaiser picked his moment well. The French were violating earlier accords.

Yet his real purpose was to probe and weaken Britain's entente with France (not a formal alliance) by picking on an issue where London had little natural sympathy for French actions.

The Agadir Crisis backfired against the Kaiser. The Entente did not break. But that is hardly a reassuring episode. The chain of events that followed were catastrophic.

France felt emboldened by British backing, with ripple effects through the Franco-Russian alliance. Russia then felt more able to push its luck when the Serbian crisis hit in 1914. Agadir fed an overwhelming sense of fury in Germany, a feeling that Britain had become an enemy.

America is now having to walk the same sort of tightrope that Britain had to walk – and walked badly – from Agadir to Sarajevo. One misjudgement by either side in the East China Sea could change our world entirely. If you are not concerned, perhaps you should be.

As I said above, very, very few in Japan are concerned. They either do not take Mr. Abe seriously, or they put much faith in the sanity of the Chinese leadership.

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#Fukushima I NPP Reactor 4 SFP Fuel Assembly Removal: 14% Done (220/1533)

From TEPCO's page dedicated to the Reactor 4 Spent Fuel Pool fuel removal operation:

Breakdown of transferred assemblies as of January 27, 2014:

Spent fuel: 198 assemblies/1,331 assemblies

Unirradiated (New) fuel: 22 assemblies/ 202 assemblies

Number of times of cask transportation: 10 times

So they have been removing used fuel assemblies except for the 22 new ones that they removed in the very first removal operation.

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The Obama Administration Demands Japan to Return 300kg of Weapon-Grade Plutonium the US Sent During Cold War Era

First it was the "disappointment" expressed by Ambassador Caroline Kennedy representing the United States Government that spooked Japanese. It was over the Yasukuni Shrine visit by the prime minister of Japan.

Then it was the United States Government's official stance as expressed also by Ambassador Kennedy that she and her government oppose a particular traditional way of fishing dolphins and whales in Japan. It delighted non-Japanese, pleased some Japanese, angered some more, puzzled many who wondered aloud, "Isn't there a more pressing issue between the US and Japan than a method of fishing?"

Now comes this, tad more relevant and contemporary than both from the US government, perhaps.

From Business Standard, quoting Kyodo News (1/27/2014):

US presses Japan to hand back 300 kg of plutonium

Japan's key ally the US has been pressing the country to return more than 300 kg of mostly weapon-grade plutonium that it exported to Japan for research purposes during the Cold War era, media reported.

The plutonium that is stored at a fast critical assembly in Tokaimura in Japan's Ibaraki prefecture could be used to produce 40-50 nuclear weapons, reported Japan's Kyodo News, citing unnamed Japanese and US government officials, according to Xinhua.

Japan has strongly resisted the demand raised by US President Barack Obama's administration, but it finally gave in to repeated demands, Kyodo said.

The two countries since last year have been seriously discussing the issue as the US plans to reach an accord with Japan at the third nuclear security summit in March in the Netherlands, according to the report.

The fast critical assembly belonging to the Japan Atomic Energy Agency is the country's only critical assembly designed to study characteristics of fast reactors.

The Japanese ministry of education, culture, sports, science and technology and other researchers have argued that the plutonium in question is needed for research and vital for producing good data, said Kyodo.

At present, Japan has another estimated 44 tonnes of plutonium, but its quality is not on par with the plutonium used for research purposes, Kyodo quoted a Japanese expert as saying.

In East Asia, China possesses nuclear weapons. So does North Korea, who has restarted its gas-graphite reactor for plutonium production. Instead of doing something about them and their programs first, the Obama administration has been demanding the return of weapon-grade plutonium that the US sent to Japan as part of "Atoms for Peace" initiatives.

The original Kyodo News in Japanese says that "the Obama administration considers 'nuclear security' important". If that's the case, why has that administration who considers 'nuclear security' important allowed the detailed information (such as the amount of plutonium, number of nuclear bombs that could be made) to leak to the media?

Why now? Something doesn't add up. I wonder if the existence in Japan of 300 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium has served as some kind of deterrent against an aggressive nation or two. Now the cover is blown.

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(OT) This Year's Flu Is Deadly...

I have been in bed for the entire week because of it. Still recovering. Hope to get back writing about things nuclear and Japanese in a few days.

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