Friday, June 3, 2011

#Radiation in Fukushima: Government Doubles the Cumulative Radiation Level in Namie-Machi to 61 Millisieverts, Citing Calculation Error

The "impressive, well-organized" (according to IAEA) Japanese government disclosed that the Ministry of Education and Science made a calculation error, and the cumulative radiation level from March 12 to May 11 at a location in Namie-machi in Fukushima Prefecture was 61 millisieverts, not 31 as had been previously announced.

The cumulative radiation level at the location in Namie-machi up to May 25 was 73.9 millisieverts.

Oh wait.. The cumulative radiation increased 13 millisieverts in 2 weeks? That's over 20% increase.

Is it only for the Namie-machi numbers that the Ministry made a calculation error?

From Tokyo Shinbun, citing Kyodo News (9:42PM JST 6/3/2011):


The Ministry of Education and Science announced on June 3 that the estimated cumulative radiation level from March 12 to May 25 at one location in Namie-machiFukushima Prefecture, 22 kilometers northwest of Fukushima I Nuke Plant, was 73.9 millisieverts. The Ministry also disclosed the cumulative radiation estimate map of the same period in the area around Fukushima I Nuke Plant.

  文科省は5月16日、この地点の5月11日までの積算線量は31・7ミリシーベルトと発表していたが、この日、61・1ミリシーベルトだったと訂正した。 担当者は「一部で間違った計算式を使っていた」としている。浪江町内のほかの10地点でも計算ミスがあり、大幅な過小評価になっていた。

Previously, the Ministry of Education and Science announced the cumulative radiation at this particular location up to May 11 was 31.7 millisieverts, but it corrected the number to 61.1 millisieverts. According to the person [unnamed] in charge at the Ministry, "A wrong formula was used in calculation in some parts." Calculation errors were found for 10 additional locations within Namie-machi, resulting in a vast underestimation of the radiation levels.

By the way, the video of a cute, ear-less rabbit was taken at a Namie-machi location. It was not a hoax, and it was later reported by a major newspaper (Sankei Shinbun). The person who uploaded that video said in the Youtube description that the cumulative radiation level in Namie-machi had been much higher (as measured by the residents) than the Ministry's number, up to 3 times as much. Well, Namie residents were right.


netudiant said...

It is surprising that the Japanese authorities have not taken note of the much more detailed radiation surveys now available to adjust the current 30km evacuation zone to reflect reality.
In the ISRNs most recent report (in French, sorry)
it is clear that most of the contaminated zone is a narrow swath of land pointing roughly north west from the plant, about 45 km long and 10km wide.
The rest of the area is much less contaminated and there is no reason to keep the people living there away from their homes in makeshift shelters.
Simultaneously, there is need to recognize that the 30km radius was insufficient in some cases and that additional communities will be affected.
However, given the wretched care apparently received by the evacuees, it would be natural for those people to prefer to take the risk of increased radioactivity rather than to depend on the governments refugee support system.

Anonymous said...

Robbie001 sez:

The direction of the initial plume was obvious weeks ago. The evacuation isn't just based on current contamination patterns it is based on possible future problems. What happens if the next aftershock or typhoon destroys #4SFP or collapses a reactor hulk or two? The wind may be blowing onshore to the south the next time with rain. If anything the "lesson (not) learned" is the circle should be extended to 50km because when something goes wrong a contamination plume can extent that far in any direction the wind is blowing. The situation at Fukushima isn't stable by a long shot and until it is it isn't safe to move back. On shore winds and the rainy season are coming sooner than later and TEPCO only has lame apologies and excuses to work with. That isn't a formula for early repatriation of the "underaffected" population.

They don't know where or what the loose fuel is doing, they don't have the contaminated water under control nor do they have the reactor hulks covered yet. Any of this and a hundred other unknowns are effecting the evacuees ability to have a normal life. They have recently doubled the cumulative radiation level for Namie-machi because of another "mistake" by the officials in charge. Two months from now we may find the current IAEA approved contamination maps is as inadequate as the maps offered in the initial days.

More than likely moving back without official OK isn't going to be a option because the effected areas shouldn't be getting utility service. I doubt TEPCO is going to be feeding empty neighborhoods with power when they are asking everyone to conserve. As a matter of fact I could see TEPCO favoring any plan that helps them balance their power requirements by concentrating customers. Tens of thousands of refugees aren't demanding power at their individual homes and businesses if they were to move back TEPCO would be in even more of a power deficit then they are now. In a year or two they will have convention power plants coming on line to take up the slack but for now I think the evacuation is a blessing for TEPCO.

arevamirpal::laprimavera said...

@robbie, Fukushima is outside TEPCO's service area. It's under Tohoku Electric, who is suing TEPCO for failing to give them their share of power from Fukushima I and II.

Anonymous said...

WOW. I am just floored. there,s 3 nuke reactors in full meltdown, which is unprecedented in history and they just mess around. Those things melted the first day!!!!!! That stuff is poisoning everything everywhere, wheres the outrage?
people are truly sheep when they let this stuff get out of control. Unreal. If anyone lives long enough to update the history books no one else will have survived to read about it.

Anonymous said...

It is apparent that Tepco has never been in control of this situation. Their training, preparations for disaster response and the available tools and equipment all appear to be woefully lacking. The big picture paints a company that lacked the professional expertise and the will to make even the most basic plans for disaster response. Tepco being commended by the IAEA shows the Nuclear industry is run by idiots and clowns. How sad.

Anonymous said...

Seems as if the Japanese Government is as corrupt as Americas...We're both doomed..Japan by Radiation..USA by Banksters

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