Friday, September 2, 2011

Radioactive Materials Dispersion Model by Kyushu University Researchers

Using the supercomputer program called SPRINTARS, researchers at Kyushu University and Tokyo University created the simulation of how radioactive materials from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant may have dispersed throughout the northern hemisphere. The researcher say their simulation fit the actual measurements.

It was published in the Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) under the title "A numerical simulation of global transport of atmospheric particles emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant" in June.

You can read the paper at this link (PDF file).

You can also view the animation, here, and the press release in Japanese here.

Their simulation also shows, like France's CEREA, radioactive materials from March 14/15 release reached the west coast of North America on March 18. The researchers attribute the rapid dispersion of radioactive materials from Fukushima to the unusually strong jet stream. Also, on March 14/15, there was a low pressure on the east cost of Japan, which created a strong updraft that lifted the radioactive materials to the jet stream.

The relative scale is set with the density of radioactive materials at Fukushima I Nuke Plant as 1. By the time it reached North America, it was between 0.000001 and 0.00000001.

From their paper:




16 comments:

Anonymous said...

again, a dispersioon model that unaware peoples will think and see as the total emissions released by Fukushima until today (which are still on-going). I wish these scientists start making models that show the real dispersions, the ones that include the dispersions including April to September. Anyway, very good info for limited value it has.

Anonymous said...

Would be good to have ACTUAL values, not the "fudge" factor, politically correct radiation emission figures. Probably too dangerous to standing governments, and would cause "mass panic." With the correct data plugged into the models, along with the longer timeline for radiative fallout, would be extremely useful. Good wakeup graphics....

netudiant said...

The initial (now discontinued) emissions models from the ZAMG in Austria
http://www.zamg.ac.at/wetter/fukushima/
were based on the data from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty(CTBT) monitoring network.
These data suggested Chernobyl levels of emissions from this disaster. I've seen nothing to correct these estimates. Although the more recent models suggest the scale was closer to 10% of the Chernobyl level, they lack the link to the CTBT ground truth and are consequently less credible.
The absence of any good coverage of the plume and its impact on North America is notable, as the news of spikes of activity in milk and rainwater were never given MSM coverage. Monitoring on the West Coast was curtailed in both Canada as well as in the US, at least in terms of public postings. Ongoing coverage is nil.
Imho, the most useful public service would be to produce a SPEEDI type survey for the West Coast of North America. Without some such map of ground truth, no one here will pay any further attention to this ongoing global disaster, which Japan is left to manage alone.

Anonymous said...

How about the southern hemisphere? I'm wondering how much of Fukushima fell on southern Brazil.

Anonymous said...

So, this proves that Japan has sent the USA a "nuclear payback" for the nuclear bombs we dropped on them during World War II.

The saving grace of this "nuking us" is, ALL our contemptible politicians are going to be radiated with us!

Anonymous said...

Apparently the Earth is flat according to this supercomputer. The purple stuff fills the North Pole but magically never makes it across the Arctic to Northern Europe and Russia.

Anonymous said...

It's payback time for Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Fukushima.
"There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries".

arevamirpal::laprimavera said...

@anon setp2 8:20PM, southern hemisphere seems mostly safe. CTBT said a minute amount of radioactive materials of Fukushima origin were detected in Australia and Papua New Guinea, but no news of that crossing the southern Pacific and being detected in Latin America.

Anon @6:15AM, maybe you want to take a look at the jet stream pattern to figure why it doesn't go across the Arctic. http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html

Anonymous said...

It's not a deliberate payback anonymous, but it is probably karma at work though...

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Tony Kuspa said...

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athletic clothing said...

really good to see work on Using the supercomputer program. must post more on this

logo divine said...

it's really nice to find out Radioactive Materials Model by Kyushu. good work

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