Monday, November 19, 2012

Latest Numbers on Thyroid Testing in Fukushima (November 1, 2012)


From the September 2012 report (that details the result of the fiscal 2011 testing) and November 2012 report from the Fukushima prefectural government on the thyroid testing for children in Fukushima, using ultrasound:

Number of children tested so far (2011, 2012): 114,471
Number of children whose test results have been confirmed, as of September 28: 95,954
(to base the ratios of children with nodules and cysts)

Number of children with nodules larger than 5mm: 491 (0.51%)
Number of children with nodules 5mm or less: 432 (0.45%)

Number of children with cysts larger than 20mm: 5 (0.005%)
Number of children with cysts 20mm or less: 37,758 (39.35%)
(Of the above, children with cysts 3mm or less: 21,031)


In regular medical practice, thyroid cysts of 3mm or less are considered as "no cysts", according to the Fukushima Prefecture.

Summary page of the November 2012 report by the Fukushima prefectural government (English labels are mine):


And the page that has the breakdown of the cyst by size, for children tested in the fiscal 2012 up to September 28, 2012 (English labels are mine):


People in Japan continue to freak out after listening to Dr. Caldicott, particularly over her remark that 40 percent of 80,000 children tested in Fukushima "have thyroid abnormalities, which is incredibly rare in pediatrics". (Around 11:30 into the video.)

17 comments:

doitujin said...

well, but it's still 17,43% of children with cysts between 20mm and 4mm...

Anonymous said...

Yes, doitsujin, and I would like to know whether that's within the range to be normally expected.

Anonymous said...

"Caldicott explained that the high rate of abnormal growths in Fukushima children is very unusual — it usually takes five to 70 years to see what the medical implications of radiation are — and insisted that the international medical community become involved.

"The data should be made available. And they should be consulting with international experts ASAP. And the lesions on the ultrasounds should all be biopsied and they're not being biopsied. And if they're not being biopsied then that's ultimate medical irresponsibility. Because if some of these children have cancer and they're not treated they're going to die."

We also spoke with Dr. Bryan Haugen, president-elect of the American Thyroid Association and head of endocrinology at the University of Colorado School of Medicine, who hadn't heard of the report before we contacted him.

Haugen agreed with the Caldicott's assessment that it is surprising for kids to "have this many nodules and cysts seen, especially this soon after the accident," and the fact that "this something that is not more widely known. He added that ultrasound technology is much more sensitive today so cysts (i.e. small sacs of fluid) smaller than 2 centimeters don't need to be biopsied but solid nodules (i.e. clumps of cells) larger than 5 millimeters should be biopsied.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fukushima-children-have-abnormal-thyroid-growths-2012-7

Anonymous said...

Ugghh.. Business Insider crap again...

Anonymous said...

Assuming the ultrasound techs have the correct level of training, expertise with the most sensitive equipment, and able to document correctly! Does anyone know how well trained the techs are who are performing this testing? Its not DOCTORS who do the ultrasound-doctors just read the reports.....

Anonymous said...

Pretty sure Caldicott already said those things almost two years ago. A bit late to freak out now.

arevamirpal::laprimavera said...

Uh, you mean before Fukushima accident? Whatever it is, many Japanese are freaking out now.

Anonymous said...

This is only the beginning. There is much more freaking to come!

Jim said...

Even low-level radioactivity is damaging, says meta-analysis of published studies

Even the very lowest levels of radiation are harmful to life, scientists have concluded in the Cambridge Philosophical Society’s journal Biological Reviews.

hamakkomommy said...

I saw your tweet (in Japanese) about stopping the English language blog. Please don't!! So many foreigners living here have children they are concerned about, but do not have accss to the information you present in a language they can understand. Don't give up!

Anonymous said...

@Jim,

That study talks about "low doses" but it includes populations which are exposed to more than 100 mSv every year. That does not sound low to me.

Anonymous said...

I can say in France it took some 15 years to have a stable assesment of Tchernobyl contamination, with the increase of people having their thyroid partly or totaly removed.
Meanwhile, we saw how the gov. lied and hid data, people under or overreacting ; what food and from where should have been checked and maybe banned ( goat cheese, honey, thyme and herbs alike, mushrooms in the wild, game...)
East, south east, and Corsica have been quite contaminated.
Even now in Bavaria, Germany, hunters have their wild boars tested, quite a lot are over and compensated by the state (so it's become another kind of hunting)
At last H. Caldicott has not always very subtle and reliable words. I would not buy dryed fruits from Turkey, nor mushrooms from Ukraine, but when she claims "don't eat food from Europe !" she's astray.

Anonymous said...

It is possible to prove when thyroid cancer is caused by radiation exposure, by looking at DNA damages:

http://insciences.org/article.php?article_id=10136

Hospitals can't simply say "we can't say it is caused by Fukushima", because they can test further to identify the specific DNA damage.


Vyse Legendaire said...

Helen Caldicott is freaking out yet again, but I don't think that means radiation is suddenly nutritious and we should gulp it down...

Atomfritz said...

Thank you LaPrimavera for calming down on panic mongering.

More than 15% kids with large (>3mm) anomalies seem to be a lot if I understood correctly.
I think it could be a good idea to be prepared when the incubation time of about at least four years expires and Japanese child cancer possibly becomes a more common phenomenon than child suicide, which is world-highest in Japan.

arevamirpal::laprimavera said...

I don't know, Atomfritz. Specialists and radiologists that I read on Twitter do say they don't pay much attention unless the growth is more than 5 millimeters, and even then many say they wouldn't do aspiration biopsy unless the nodule is bigger than 10 millimeters or the cyst is bigger than 20 millimeters because of false positive and too much stress on children.

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