Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Sovereign Capture and Arbitrage: Israel Could Force US to Join the War with Iran

Great chess players not only read the moves ahead but also narrow the choices left to the opponent in such a way that the opponent will make a move that will result in the checkmate.

I saw this article (linked below) yesterday at Zero Hedge, but I had read the similar articles elsewhere earlier. Even you haven't read any, it's not hard to figure out by yourself.

It is a sovereign capture and arbitrage, just like the financial crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010 were a regulatory capture and arbitrage. You create a situation where the other party has no other choice but acting the way you want them - dump your garbage on the regulators (the government), and have taxpayers pay it, even if that's not the best interest of the regulators or the taxpayers. But the maneuver is such that the regulators and/or taxpayers feel they simply had to do it to "save the system". The TBTF Wall Street banks got bailed out by the US taxpayers, and the European taxpayers are presented with $1 trillion so that the big European (and the US) banks continue to get paid.

Israel is simply doing the same capture and arbitrage on a sovereign nation level. Instead of "too big to fail (TBTF)", it is "too special for the US to fail". With 46 Republican Congressmen as co-sponsors for the House Resolution (H.Res. 1553) giving Israel unconditional support on whatever it may do regarding Iran, and over 70% of the US population believes Iran already has nuclear weapons (it doesn't), it seems the checkmate is only one or two moves away.

But just so that they can say "We told you so", more than anything else, the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity sent a letter to President Obama:

VIPS Sends Memo To Obama Warning Israel May Bomb Iran "As Early As This Month" (Tyler Durden, 8/3/2010 Zero Hedge)

"The Steering Group of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) which consists of Phil Giraldi, former CIA (20 years), Larry Johnson, former CIA; DoS, (24 years), W. Patrick Lang, Col., USA, Special Forces (ret.); Director of HUMINT Collection, Defense Intelligence Agency (30 years), Ray McGovern, US Army Intelligence Officer, CIA (30 years), Coleen Rowley, FBI (24 years), and Ann Wright, Col., US Army Reserve (ret.), (29 years); Foreign Service Officer, Department of State (16 years), have penned a memo to the president in an attempt to alert him "to the likelihood that Israel will attack Iran as early as this month. This would likely lead to a wider war." Read on for the full memo by the activist group.

First appearing in TruthOut


FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

SUBJECT: War With Iran

We write to alert you to the likelihood that Israel will attack Iran as early as this month. This would likely lead to a wider war.

Israel’s leaders would calculate that once the battle is joined, it will be politically untenable for you to give anything less than unstinting support to Israel, no matter how the war started, and that U.S. troops and weaponry would flow freely. Wider war could eventually result in destruction of the state of Israel.

This can be stopped, but only if you move quickly to pre-empt an Israeli attack by publicly condemning such a move before it happens."

The letter continues, and you can read it in its entirety at Zero Hedge or at the Truth Out.

Why this month? Because...

"Last week’s announcement that U.S. officials will meet next month with Iranian counterparts to resume talks on ways to arrange higher enrichment of Iranian low enriched uranium for Tehran’s medical research reactor was welcome news to all but the Israeli leaders.

"In addition, Iran reportedly has said it would be prepared to halt enrichment to 20 percent (the level needed for the medical research reactor), and has made it clear that it looks forward to the resumption of talks.

"Again, an agreement that would send a large portion of Iran’s LEU abroad would, at a minimum, hinder progress toward nuclear weapons, should Iran decide to develop them. But it would also greatly weaken Israel’s scariest rationale for an attack on Iran.

"Bottom line: with the talks on what Israel’s leaders earlier labeled a “trick” now scheduled to resume in September, incentive builds in Tel Aviv for the Israelis to attack before any such agreement can be reached.

"We’ll say it again: the objective is regime change..."

The letter also mentions Admiral Michael G. Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who has said that Pentagon has a war plan with Iran, just in case. Nonetheless, Admiral Mullen, who served in the Vietnam War, has been instrumental in preventing a blowup in the Middle East since the days of the previous administration under George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

I am not very optimistic that Admiral Mullen will succeed this time, even though I hope and pray that he will. The US will end up with three open wars - Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, none of which has attacked the US. (Remember 9/11 hijackers were Saudis.) For Obama, it is a chance to become an overnight sensation among the Republican leadership and conventional Republicans in the flyover states. Most Democrats are no longer anti-war now that their party is the government. He wouldn't gain much by restraining Israel.

I'm sure the stock market will melt up when (not even if at this point) the attack takes place. Oil and gold will skyrocket, along with the US dollar, Treasuries, and everything else.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, ........ (fill in the blank).


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