Sunday, May 1, 2011

Osama Bin Laden Killed: Stratfor's First Take "We know little beyond what we have been told, but we know it matters."

From Stratfor's Red Alert (5/2/2011 0249GMT):

The United States has killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and recovered his body, according to numerous media reports May 1 citing U.S. officials. U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to make an announcement on the subject. It is not clear precisely how bin Laden was killed or how his body was recovered, but the assertion that he is dead is significant.

Bin Laden had become the symbol of al Qaeda, even though the degree to which he commanded the organization was questionable. The symbolic value of his death is obvious. The United States can claim a great victory. Al Qaeda can proclaim his martyrdom.

It is difficult to understand what this means at this moment, but it permits the Obama administration to claim victory, at least partially, over al Qaeda. It also opens the door for the beginning of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, regardless of the practical impact of bin Laden’s death. The mission in Afghanistan was to defeat al Qaeda, and with his death, a plausible claim can be made that the mission is complete. Again speculatively, it will be interesting to see how this affects U.S. strategy there.

Equally possible is that this will trigger action by al Qaeda in bin Laden’s name. We do not know how viable al Qaeda is or how deeply compromised it was. It is clear that bin Laden’s cover had been sufficiently penetrated to kill him. If bin Laden’s cover was penetrated, then the question becomes how much of the rest of the organization’s cover was penetrated. It is unlikely, however, that al Qaeda is so compromised that it cannot take further action.

At this early hour, the only thing possible is speculation on the consequences of bin Laden’s death, and that speculation is inherently flawed. Still, the importance of his death has its consequences. Certainly one consequence will be a sense of triumph in the United States. To others, this will be another false claim by the United States. For others it will be a call to war. We know little beyond what we have been told, but we know it matters.

Claim victory and get out of Afghanistan and Pakistan (and Kazakhstan and a host of other -stans).

5 comments:

threeggg said...

This worthless news will be used to pump the dow and goose the dollar tomorrow because London and China are closed tonight.

arevamirpal::laprimavera said...

Yup. My feeling exactly. Dow futures already up 99 points, S&P500 futures up 10, Naz futures up almost 20. US dollar up slightly.

Time to slam gold and silver, as "risk" is on again. Crooks.

Hélios said...

Ben Laden dead for the fifth time, at least...
Walpurgis night bloody sacrifice ?
Many other reasons ?
Future will say it.
Good night in California.

Anonymous said...

Robbie001 sez:

Oh well I guess everybody is going to have to get used to flying naked and handcuffed now. I can't imagine this will calm down many of Osama's followers but at least we "won". I hope a loose nuke from the former USSR never found it's way into the wrong hands Fukushima might give someone the wrong idea about nuclear power.

threeggg said...

Just want to say thanks again for the blog dude ! With the near media blackout in Japan we need you Bro !

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