#Fukushima Nuclear Accident: "Worst Case Scenario" Involved Evacuation of 500,000 People, Says Government Minister

Remember the "worst-case scenario" that the Kan administration withheld in March last year and was disclosed only in January this year? Yes that one, thanks to the mis-translation by Mainichi Daily, which morphed into articles that screamed "the Japanese government are creating blueprints for forcibly removing 39 million people from the Tokyo metro-area".

Now, Koichiro "Let's all cheer for TEPCO" Genba, Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Noda administration who was the minister in charge of national strategy under the Kan administration, claims he was the one who "ordered the worst-case scenario", and that the plan was to evacuate about a half million people from the areas inside the 50-kilometer radius from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant.

It is still a significant number, about a quarter of the population of Fukushima Prefecture and about 5 times the number of residents who actually evacuated. But it is nowhere near 39 million people inside the 250-kilometer radius. The 50-kilometer radius evacuation was what the top management at the plant had expected after the explosion of Reactor 1 building, and they were surprised when they learned that only the residents inside the 20-kilometer radius were evacuated, according to the article by Shukan Asahi in July last year.

Mr. Genba is elected from Fukushima Prefecture. He said "Let's all cheer for TEPCO" right after he got the "worst-case scenario" from the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan.

From Asahi Shinbun (5/10/2012):

幻の５０万人原発避難計画　福島事故直後、官邸が想定

Prime Minister's Office's plan right after the Fukushima accident to evacuate 500,000 people, but the plan wasn't executed

昨年３月の東京電力福島第一原発事故の発生直後、首相官邸内で原発から半径５０キロ圏の住民約５０万人を避難させる計画を立てていたことがわかった。原発が制御不能になる最悪の事態を想定したもので、結果的には幻に終わった。

It has been revealed that there was a plan at the Prime Minister's Official Residence right after the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident started in March last year to evacuate about 500,000 residents inside the 50-kilometer radius from the plant. The assumption was the worst case where a reactor would become uncontrollable. In the end, the plan was never executed.

　事故当時、国家戦略相だった玄葉光一郎外相が朝日新聞の取材に対して明らかにした。衆院福島３区選出の玄葉氏は、事故翌日の３月１２日の原子力災害対策本部会議で「メルトダウン（炉心溶融）の可能性がある」と指摘。３月１５日には、内閣府原子力委員会に「最悪の事態」を想定した対応を指示した。

Minister of Foreign Affairs Koichiro Genba, who was the minister in charge of national strategy at the time of the accident, told Asahi Shinbun. Mr. Genba, who is elected to the Lower House from the 3rd district of Fukushima Prefecture, says he pointed out the possibility of meltdown (core melt) in the meeting of the nuclear disaster response headquarters on March 12, 2011, one day after the start of the accident. On March 15, he instructed the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan (JAEC) under the Cabinet Office to come up with the response [to the accident] based on the "worst-case scenario".

　原子力委は、原子炉の一つが制御不能になってメルトダウン状態になり、作業員が撤退して周囲の原子炉も制御不能に陥る連鎖が起きるシナリオに基づいて計画を作成。玄葉氏は当時の菅直人首相に提言した。

JAEC crafted the plan based on the scenario where one of the reactors would become uncontrollable and have a meltdown, triggering the chain reaction of other reactors becoming uncontrollable as the workers would evacuate from the plant. Mr. Genba proposed [the plan to evacuate 500,000 residents] to then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan.

Tweet