Tuesday, March 12, 2013

NOAA's HYSPLIT Model on Fukushima Radioactive Aerosol Dispersion

as published by NOAA on March 1, 2012.

In the model below, the highest radioactivity (in red) starts to appear in Fukushima after about 0 UTC on March 14, 2011, and it continues until around March 21, 2011. Japan is nine hours ahead of UTC. On March 14, 2011, TEPCO was attempting the vent of Reactor 2 and Reactor 3. The explosion of Reactor 3 building happened at 11:01 AM that day.

From NOAA's Science on a Sphere page:

The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was developed by NOAA to follow the transport and dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere. In HYSPLIT, the computation is composed of four components: transport by the mean wind, turbulent dispersion, scavenging and decay. A large number of pollutant particles, which by convention are called "particles" but are just computational "points" (particles or gases), are released at the source location and passively follow the wind.

The 2011 Tohuku East Japan earthquake and resulting tsunami caused a variety of failures at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant which resulted in radioactive emissions to the atmosphere. The earthquake occurred on March 11th at 14:26 Japan Standard Time (JST), the tsunami about one hour later at 15:41, and by 16:36 a nuclear emergency was reported. By the early morning hours of March 12th, radioactive emissions were occurring from the plant.

In this dataset, the simulation from NOAA's HYSPLIT model shows a continuous release of tracer particles from 12-31 March at a rate of 100 per hour representing the Cesium-137 emitted from Fukushima Daiichi. Each change in particle color represents a decrease in radioactivity by a factor of 10. Radioactivity decreases due to removal by rainfall and gravitational settling. Decay is not a factor for Cesium in this short duration simulation compared to its 30 year long-half life. The air concentration would be computed from the particle density so it is only partially related to the color scale. The released particles are followed through the end of April using meteorological data from the 1-degree resolution NOAA global analyses.

Notable Features

  • Particles with the highest radioactivity were released around March 15th

  • Radioactivity is measured in units of Becquerel defined as the disintegration of one atom per second

  • Particles in counter-clockwise circulations are caught in low-pressure systems resulting in greater depletion of the radioactivity by rainfall

  • Particles caught in clockwise circulations are embedded in fair weather high pressure systems and their radioactivity will persist for longer periods

  • In general, radioactivity reaching the United States showed air concentrations over 1000 times smaller than areas near Japan


Anonymous said...

After seeing this, I wonder why the US is being so friendly to Japan, as it is clear the west coast of the US took a bad hit. You could almost see it as an act of war and Hillary annouced almost right away that Japan import products are more than welcom.
What is the catch here ? What did the US gained by this? Must be something. Any ideas?

Anonymous said...

One trillion dollar worth of US treasuries, for one.

Japan being next to China for another.

It was GE-designed reactors that blew up, for another.

That Roosevelt's naval blockade was an act of war but the US got away with it, for another.

I don't think the US has any moral authority left to say to anyone "it's an act of war".

Hélios said...

Salut Ultraman,

Published in march 1, 2012 ? Not 2013 ?

Hélios said...

Yes, 2012, sorry.

Anonymous said...

It's a Jesuit Pope!

Anonymous said...

Way to go japan,you fucking retards.
Oh what's that? You're going to die 1st? GOOD!

Anonymous said...

@8:15 PM, reread your bible. Gloating over your neighbour dying first is a sin. Tisk tisk. Wishing anyone to die, especially the retarded, is a mortal sin. You are going to hell, I guess. I feel bad for y'all.

iGirlTech said...

I have only sorrow and empathy for the citizens of Japan. That accident could have happened at any Nuclear site and still may. Let's pray we don't have to see this happen again. In one way or another we will all suffer the effects of this disaster.

Anonymous said...

there is no way to prevent the next catastrophic nuclear explostion. It will happen again, and several times, until we have enough.
Russia (again), US (again), France...
Given the risks, another explosion will occur within 12 years with good level of certainty.
And then, another with 20 years from now.
one large, one medium. Nuclear accident are now part of our every day life. We have accepted to die from a nuclear accident. Media introduce them to us as less problematic than oil spills.

Hélios said...

Are you OK, Ultraman ?

arevamirpal::laprimavera said...

Hi, Helios. I've been kind of tied up recently. Had to take care of the family member who is ill. Also somehow have to make money to support my non-profit work here (LOL).

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