Will Lithuania's Referendum Stop the Construction of a New Nuclear Power Plant?

Hitachi's spokesman says the referendum result was "regrettable", according to Daily Yomiuri Online (English).

This referendum is "consultative", meaning it doesn't have the enforcing power. The government will have one month to decide on the resolution. (Wikipedia: Referendums in Lithuania)

Only a minor bump in the road for Hitachi, most likely.

From Daily Yomiuri Online in English (10/17/2012; emphasis is mine), which has more information than the article that appeared in Japanese Yomiuri (10/15/2012):

Hitachi's nuclear plan hits bump / Lithuania referendum on construction project could hurt export strategy

A Lithuanian referendum result has cast a shadow over Hitachi Ltd.'s strategy to increase sales from its nuclear business--and could affect other Japanese companies in the nuclear industry.

Hitachi has signed a provisional contract with the Lithuanian government to construct a nuclear plant in the Baltic nation. But in a nonbinding referendum held Sunday, 62 percent of Lithuanian voters rejected the project, a result that could make the Lithuanian government review it.

A Hitachi spokesman said the result of the referendum was "regrettable."

"We'll closely watch how the Lithuanian government responds to the result," the spokesman added.

Hitachi signed a provisional contract with the Lithuanian government in July 2011 to construct the latest model of a boiling water reactor in Visaginas, eastern Lithuania. The project will cost 400 billion yen to 500 billion yen, and the Lithuanian government plans to use the reactor to supply electricity to all three Baltic countries, including Estonia and Latvia, from the early 2020s.

The Lithuania deal was the first inked by a Japanese company to build a nuclear reactor overseas since the crisis began at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in March 2011. The contract showed the safety of Japan's nuclear technology was recognized internationally, to a certain degree.

Hitachi plans to increase sales of its nuclear businesses from 160 billion yen in March to 360 billion yen in March 2021. However, observers said the company will have to revise its strategy if Lithuania does a U-turn on its nuclear policy.

Other Japanese nuclear power plant companies are concerned the result in Lithuania might affect sentiment in more nations considering building nuclear reactors.

Toshiba Corp. is competing for an order to build a nuclear plant in Turkey with South Korea, Canada and other countries. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is trying to export a nuclear power reactor to Jordan.

As these companies have no prospect of building a new nuclear plant in Japan since the government reviewed the nuclear energy policy after the Fukushima crisis, they must try to expand their businesses overseas.

However, some experts said the real issue of Lithuania's referendum was the massive spending that would be required for the construction at a time of financial difficulties, not the government's nuclear policy itself.

Many developing countries, including Lithuania, need to increase their power supply to sustain economic growth.

"Those countries have high expectations for nuclear plants that can stably supply a huge amount of electricity," an official of a Japanese nuclear company said.

I think I know what's coming next: a massive amount of interest-free loan from the Japanese government to Lithuania so that it can afford to have a state-of-the-art nuclear power plant.

Newsweek/Bloomberg article says the Lithuanian referendum result may prompt Estonia to commission a second oil shale-fired power unit.

Estonia's oil shale deposits account for 90% of Estonia's power source, and 17% of total deposits in the European Union, according to wiki.

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