Thursday, August 25, 2011

13% of Radioactive Iodine, 22% of Radioactive Cesium from Fukushima I Nuke Plant Landed in Central/Northern Japan

The rest was either blown off to the ocean or landed somewhere else in Japan.

Researchers at the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) had their paper published in the electronic version of "Geophysical Research Letters" published by the American Geophysical Union on August 11, and they announced the result of their research in Japan on August 25.

The paper was submitted on June 27, and they kept quiet until the research was published. The researchers at this government institute therefore knew all along how bad the contamination was all over southern Tohoku and all of Kanto and part of Chubu.

Abstract of the paper titled "Atmospheric behavior, deposition, and budget of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011" by Yu Morino, Toshimasa Ohara,* and Masato Nishizawa, Regional Environment Research Center, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan:

To understand the atmospheric behavior of radioactive materials emitted from theFukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the nuclear accident that accompanied the great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011, we simulated the transport and deposition of iodine-131 and cesium-137 using a chemical transport model. The model roughly reproduced the observed temporal and spatial variations of deposition rates over 15 Japanese prefectures (60–400 km from the plant), including Tokyo, although there were some discrepancies between the simulated and observed rates. These discrepancies were likely due to uncertainties in the simulation of emission, transport, and deposition processes in the model. A budget analysis indicated that approximately 13% of iodine-131 and 22% of cesium-137 were deposited over land in Japan, and the rest was deposited over the ocean or transported out of the model domain (700 × 700 km2). Radioactivity budgets are sensitive to temporal emission patterns. Accurate estimation of emissions to the air is important for estimation of the atmospheric behavior of radionuclides and their subsequent behavior in land water, soil, vegetation, and the ocean.

No other nuclides are discussed in the paper. But just for these two, if you look at the deposition and concentration simulation maps below, you see that at least half Fukushima Prefecture is "red", not just along the coast, which means the highest deposition of both iodine-131 and cesium-137 in high concentration. Southern Miyagi is just as bad as Fukushima , so is part of Ibaraki and Tochigi.

From their paper (page 19) - top row is the cumulative surface deposition amount of iodine-131 and cesium-137 from March 11 to 29; the bottom row is the average concentration of iodine-131 and cesium-137, again from March 11 to 29:

Now that their paper has been safely published, I wonder if these researchers will speak up (or the government will allow them to speak up) on the subject of radioactive contamination in much of Tohoku and Kanto. I doubt it, but I hope so. I wish they had spoken up much earlier, but I understand that having their paper published by a prestigious foreign academic society is very important for a scientific researcher.

(While I do understand the restriction on the researchers like not allowing them to publish the data before the paper is peer-reviewed and published, but I do wonder if the academic society or the magazine would have given them some sort of waiver. The paper was not about Chernobyl cesium deposition 25 years after people were evacuated from the area; it is about an on-going disaster where many people's lives may be at stake. Oh well.)


Anonymous said...

I am in japan & you need to know the truth
Radiation risks are very localised. The blanket generalisations printed daily by Japan Times are at best meaningless, at worst misleading.
As with anything in JP, gov is being extremely conservative, setting margins well beyond any rad expert would recommend

Anonymous said...

@anon at 6:03, LOL you are in Japan and you work for the government. Thank you for your excellent work. Japan Times? Who reads Japan Times here?

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't place too much stock in the exactness of the 13% and 22% numbers. The authors make in clear this is a rough model. From page 9:

"On 15–17 and 19–23 March, when the transient cyclone passed over Japan, 7–24% of I-131 and 8–41% of Cs-137 emitted from the FDNPP were deposited over land in the model domain ..." The estimates from this model have quite a large variation, as I would expect at this early stage. This kind of modeling is very difficult and achieving this level of accuracy isn't easy. Consequently, I don't know how useful this information could have been to a given individual. Getting farther away from the reactors would have been generally the best strategy, but hard to do on an island.

Of greater concern to me is the following, from page 9:

"(about) 55–60% of I-131 and Cs-137 emitted from the FDNPP were transported out of the model domain."

That is a surprisingly large number and one that should be of great concern to people in Japan who thought that being a good distance away would make them relatively safe. Unfortunately, it isn't clear where or in which direction this almost 2/3 of the emissions actually went.

Anonymous said...

The answer my friend, is blowin' in the wind...

Press 'loop' and wait a few seconds to load, sit back and see how Fukushima, Ibaraki, Miyagi, Chiba, Tokyo, Tochigi and parts of Niigata, Shizuoka etc etc were dumped on. And it rained. This map is from March 22-29 I think, and it was considerably worse from 15-18 (explosions), but those earlier maps are mysteriously not there any more.
These maps explain everything for those with eyes to see, from the radioactive tea in Shizuoka to the rice straw in Niigata. A lot of crap will be washing down the snow in mountains into the rivers and rice fields. Hence sludge everywhere and radioactive rice fields. Hence looking for radiation resistant rice strains. Lol! Yes, of course the rice is contaminated. There's your admission. 2+2=4, right.

IF Japan would admit the truth, that might put this fragile economy over the edge. Japan can't afford to do that, right now. So it's damage limitation, fingers crossed, obfustication, raise limits. People wont be sick for 20-30 years. All present politicians will be dead by then, so it's extend and pretend. Carry on working, country. Gather ye rosebuds whilst ye may. Line those pockets. Nod and smile. Play baseball. Have a beer. Otherwise its a North Koreanesque future for those under the cloud.
Look they are going to measure for radiation hot spots with...helicopters. Dumb shits. 3 monkeys spring to mind.

As it is, it is extremely lucky the wind was blowing out to sea for most of the time as if this was Fukuii of Hamaoka you'd see far, far worse. The contaminated zone could have been far worse for Tokyo-home to one quarter of the population and the 'heart and brains' of Japan. Lol! Anyone with a kid and half a brain would no longer be in that region.

Anonymous said...

I am in Japan and I don't work for the government. Ha. But, let's try to be objective about this aspect. Important story thank you to Ex SKF Fighter for his bringing this to us.

If it is true that the radioactive releases from Fukushima #1 were about 10 - 20 percent the amount of Chernobyl, then what the researchers say jives with what another Japanese researcher (who Arnie Gunderson mentioned months ago) said that a large portion of the releases went out to sea due to wind direction. This does not lesson the overall crisis but diffuses it and allows the whales to enjoy the fun.

At any rate, the percentages the researchers in today's article estimate jive with what we know so far. It would also mean that the amount of radiation that hit land in Japan would be less than ten percent of Chernobyl (taking in consideration land area and population of course).
Then we are talking about just three or four percent the amount of cesium that hit land as compared to Chernobyl.

So how can some of the more alarmist researchers (trying to drum up publicity) say this is "worse than Chernobyl" or that "hundreds of millions of people will die" due to Fukushima? Those are direct quotes from the anti nuke camp.

Don't get me wrong, Fukushima is a NIGHTMARE especially for the people in that region, but everyone should be deeply concerned (they are not) and the irresponsible policies of the government to allow farmers to sell contaminated crops and products is totally frigging unacceptable.

Ultraman swatch!!!

By the way, off topic, did folks here that the Macondo Gulf Oil Rig is leaking again? This seems to be the case according to serious researchers in that region.
More confirmation needed of course, let us hope it is not as bad as before. Mitsui of Japan was one of the large investors in that debacle. Gee, Japan has a hand in so much eco destruction it is almost too hard to believe. And they Zombie Banks alive for twenty years, is this a Death Cult?

Anonymous said...

To them who have truble with and the use of internett.
A briliant system of making a nettwork function, in populated ares without a funktioning physical(aka:cable)nett system.
With this one is able to circumvent the "officiale" nett. And in areas where people can exange news about radioactivity.

Sorry, mac.
To the ones stil in denile, this is going to be wurse, belive me.
The level og stupidity and ignorance is not changed in 6 months, and the future looks even wurse. Again this is accumulating and ongoing even as we speak.
They are dying already in Japan from this, and based on the level of ignorance in the Health Dep and Doctores in general, the numbers are been hidden for now.
Like before(remeber Japan, the chemical accident).
Nothing new under the sun. And canser is a exstrem result of radiation, before canser, there are a multitude of problems involved with radiation, and some of them are likely to be linked up to other sources. Like before under the Tjernobyl accsident. And the use of inadequate reports as a basiss of telling us that there is no Danger involved, exept those living closto the Plant, when we know that there was sky high levels of radiation in Tokyo.
We are not debating anything, we beat one and the other with insuficient data, and that simply because of the Gov and TEPCO will not admitt the scale and scope of the catastrofe.
No, freind, I am consered that Japan will implode and fall apart in a short time, when the ful scale of it is know world wide. They could have done something for 6 months ago, now its to late and the tipping point will be here soon. Istead of admitting the problem, they ignore it, and when the scope manifestes it self, it will, the tru horror will emerge, also on the economic side and manufactoring ind. will die, because of radiactiv products.

Japan will never be the same again.

Anonymous said...

"(about) 55–60% of I-131 and Cs-137 emitted from the FDNPP were transported out of the model domain."

I believe they state in the paper that this is the radionation released into the ocean. If you look at Tokyo's dose. It's roughly equivalent to what Zurich or northern Italy got after Chernobyl.

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