Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Professor Dapeng Zhao of Tohoku Univ: Fukushima I Nuke Plant Could Be Hit by Epicentral Earthquake

From Daily Mail (2/14/2012):

Stricken Fukushima nuclear plant at dire risk of massive new earthquake, scientists warn

By Damien Gayle

Scientists have issued a dire warning that the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant is at risk of a massive new earthquake.

Research using data from more than 6,000 recent tremors has found that last March's disaster has reactivated a seismic fault practically beneath the power station.

Now scientists are telling Japanese authorities to urgently shore up the damaged reactor in expectation of more massive 'quakes.

Fukushima Daiichi was the scene of the worst nuclear disasters in history after it was damaged by the March 11, 2011, magnitude 9 earthquake and following tsunami.

But this tremor's epicentre was about 100 miles from the site, off the coast of Japan, and a much closer one could occur in the future at Fukushima.

Dapeng Zhao, geophysics professor at Japan's Tohoku University, said: 'There are a few active faults in the nuclear power plant area, and our results show the existence of similar structural anomalies under both the Iwaki and the Fukushima Daiichi areas.

'Given that a large earthquake occurred in Iwaki not long ago, we think it is possible for a similarly strong earthquake to happen in Fukushima.'

The April 11, 2011, magnitude 7 Iwaki earthquake was the strongest aftershock of the 11 March earthquake with an inland epicentre.

It occurred 37 miles south-west of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, 124 miles from the March 11 epicentre.

The research, published in European Geosciences Union's open-access Solid Earth journal, shows that the Iwaki earthquake was triggered by fluids moving upwards from the subducting Pacific plate to the crust.

The Pacific plate is moving beneath north-east Japan, which increases the temperature and pressure of the minerals in it.

This leads to the removal of water from minerals, generating fluids that are less dense than the surrounding rock. These fluids move up to the upper crust and may alter seismic faults.

Ping Tong, lead author of the paper, said: 'Ascending fluids can reduce the friction of part of an active fault and so trigger it to cause a large earthquake.

'This, together with the stress variations caused by the 11 March event, is what set off the Iwaki tremor.'

The number of tremors in Iwaki increased greatly after the March earthquake. The movements in the Earth's crust induced by the event caused variations in the seismic pressure or stress of nearby faults.

Around Iwaki, Japan's seismic network recorded over 24,000 tremors from March 11, 2011 to October 27, 2011, up from under 1,300 detected quakes in the nine years before, the scientists report.

The 6,000 of these earthquakes selected for the study were recorded by 132 seismographic stations in Japan from June 2002 to October 2011.

The researchers analysed these data to take pictures of the Earth's interior, using a technique called seismic tomography.

Professor Zhao explained: 'The method is a powerful tool to map out structural anomalies, such as ascending fluids, in the Earth's crust and upper mantle using seismic waves.

'It can be compared to a CT or CAT scan, which relies on X-rays to detect tumours or fractures inside the human body.'

While the scientists can't predict when an earthquake in Fukushima Daiichi will occur, they state that the ascending fluids observed in the area indicate that such an event is likely to occur in the near future.

They warn that more attention should be paid to the site's ability to withstand strong earthquakes, and reduce the risk of another nuclear disaster.

The scientists also note that the results may be useful for reviewing seismic safety in other nuclear facilities in Japan, such as nearby Fukushima Daini, Onagawa to the north of Fukushima, and Tōkai to the south.

The paper at Solid Earth Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union is here.

53 comments:

STeVe the JeW said...

-- Solid Earth: "the Pacific slab dehydration"

the english language can be so beautiful at times.

Chibaguy said...

It is nice to see someone reporting possible quakes based upon research and admitting they have no idea when it will happen based upon scientific reasoning. This is a lot better than the constant "there is a 90 percent chance of Kanto quake in the next 30 years.". If one studied the research the would see the inland quakes that are happening recently are on the same fault line. I am sick of them though. None of this is good news for Fukushima though. I read that they acknowledge the plant was on a fault line last year but they thought it was benign.

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CaptD said...

1. An Engineering point of view, one can see that TEPCO is
... with holding vital info that is delaying any containment
... (no pun intended) and now their Gov't. is helping them!

2. A Scientific point of view, TEPCO is in total denial about
... the seriousness of this nuclear debacle and its effect on
... on the Japanese people and their economy! They are
... treating this more like a big "RECALL" instead of a CRISIS!

3. A Global point of view, Japan is not only NOW the World's
... Greatest Polluter, but they have lost their good quality
... reputation and they are allowing the pollution to continue!

4. A Humanitarian point of view, their treatment of their own
... children's health, their workers health and their refusal to
... make public, radiation readings from 3/11 is inexcusable!

5. A MSM (Main Stream Media) point of view, the way that our
... Countries have hidden this from the Public is just criminal
... and should be a wake up call to all to of us that we are losing
... our freedom of the Press along with our Freedom of Speech.

The only thing hard to understand is, why has the UN
... and All Other Nations allowed this "Japanese Fire Drill"
... to Continue, unless we are all potentially doomed
... and they do not want Global Panic?

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Anonymous said...

Fucking GO AWAY! GO AWAY! GO AWAY!

Drop a hydrogen bomb--*if* we still have one? Aerosolize everything into the atmosphere?!?! And you worked for the nuke industry? You are more nutz than the Finnish guy. This has to be some kind of joke post.

Cease ium said...

Is it possible the crazy troll has hijacked this person's persona? She sounds exactly like Arto Lauri talking nonsense about beta flares.

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Anonymous said...

same m.o. as the schizoid fin. didn't she say she wasn't a nuke expert in another comment but now according to her analysis we need to drop a H-bomb because she sees some lights on the tepco webcam. all we need is for her to write she is a fundy christian who's soul is saved and that she feels sorry that the rest of us are going to hell.

Anonymous said...

"It is building a oxygen bomb." ( "an" oxygen bomb)

Please, oh please, tell us the science you've used to come up with this idea, you who are so keen on science and find us so lacking.

Anonymous said...

@Brackett, is that supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek joke? Or are you impersonating Ms Brackett? Should I alert her about ID theft?

If you want to go that line (neutron beams out of reactor buildings), why don't you go to places like Fukushima Diary? Or try Physics Forum and see what they say.

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Anonymous said...

Everyone is very worried about a nuclear excursion, or another one, if you believe one already happened at #3, so frigging drop a hydrogen bomb to speed up atmospheric contamination. This is something a Japanese politician would have no problem coming up with especially if he was major of the town with the bomb making facility.

Anonymous said...

"How can I find you lacking? I don't even know who you "all" are. Yes, I am a Christian. Watch the TEPCO live feed for yourselves and decide."

Where's the science behind your oxygen bomb? Please explain since you were the one that wrote the only science on this blog was the articles Areva posts.

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Anonymous said...

STOP EMBARRASSING YOURSELF.

Anonymous said...

We're international standard here, and don't talk in nanograys. And please just go away. How about enenews?

You suddenly barged in, badmouthing the long-term members, swore in capital letters, misspelled bananas. Just go. GOGOGOGOGO!

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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the voice in your head said...

Blow up a megaton H-bomb with TEPCO in charge of the job. Plutonium fallout for the whole world! Genius! Even better than an asteroid hit for global extinction of everything alive.

Anonymous said...

KSB, a hydrogen bomb can't even convert all of its own nuclear material into energy. That'swhy you get fallout from exploding nuke bombs. DUH! Did you by any chance get canned from your previous nuke industry job?

Anonymous said...

I wonder what exploding a 50 megaton bomb would do for the fault line? :-((((( You'd have to displace quite a few people beforehand including, but not limited to all of Tokyo. :-((((((

arevamirpal::laprimavera said...

SPEEDI is a simulation. I hope you know that.

Anonymous said...

Typical US solutions = bomb Iraq, bomb Afghanistan, bomb Libya,..and on the backburner..., bomb Iran, bomb Fukushima.

Anonymous said...

The word "debri" has an "s" at the end of it.

Anonymous said...

And now, the most important question of all, Karen, is--do you believe that the only true Bible is the 1611 King James Version?

Anonymous said...

Wow. Just. Wow. This woman was a nuclear fuel operator in the United States. Bloody hell.

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Anonymous said...

Just leave, already. Bring your self-righteousness elsewhere.

Anonymous said...

Karen, you lying piece of shit, in your interview you said you left your 40,000 dollar a year nuke job because of a tumour and a back problem.

Vomitous lying piece of shit! No wonder you tried to get into politics, you're a natural.

Anonymous said...

Here it is, In your own words:

"Let me tell you something.... I was working for a good company.... making $40,000 a year .... when that whole tumor thing along with a back injury happened to me....

"I ended up broke with no job crying for help at the Downtown Clinic in Johnson City. I had gone to [public and private health care-providers previously and been turned away for various bureaucratic reasons.] ....

Anonymous said...

Yes, whistleblower indeed.

Anonymous said...

must have whistleblown just before the tumor and back injury, and she just forgot to mention it in the interview. yeah, that's it...

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Anonymous said...

Brackett, I thought you were gone for good. If you want to write your endless crap, start your own blog. Bye.

Anonymous said...

The quotes are not from Facebook(you lie again), they are 100% from your interview with the Greenville Sun. The same interview where "whistleblower you" suggests there could be enough reactors built in Texas to power the nation.

Lying comes all too easy for you and if someone catches you, you make up a sob story(violin music plays) to gloss it over. Pathological.

Get lost.

Anonymous said...

Ah, I think it's more than lying 8:05 AM, as this gem shows...

"Oct 30, 2010

"She was fired from NFS, saying they were dangerous in their production methods and stated she had reported them to the FBI, TBI and EPA for substandard practices in the way they operated in Erwin TN. NFS operates a facility in Erwin, TN that handles highly radioactive materials and has been accused of dumping enriched uranium into the Nolichucky River, Greeneville's water source.

Then, in a total about face, she recently appeared at a meeting held by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, stating they were a good company and standing up for the same Erwin facility she had previously trashed. All of this is well documented and shows she is a loon, or much worse."

Anonymous said...

Judas!

Anonymous said...

Liar, liar, pants on fire.

Anonymous said...

They shot and wounded your cat and dog so you KISS THEIR ASS...

Asked about community involvement/service, she stated that, "In the last year, I guess the most significant community involvement I have had has been in trying to help our community in coming together to understand and appreciate what one of our largest employers in Erwin, NFS, has to offer....

"I feel blessed and very fortunate to have worked for such a great company and with so many great people....

"We really are fortunate to have NFS here..."

Anonymous said...

NFS = Nuclear Fuel Services

Anonymous said...

Who TF is Whitney?

Anonymous said...

"NFS is a star in industry."

So.......This is the company that fired you and you whistle blew against? They were the ones who sent you a message by shooting your pets? Now you are shilling for them?

Lady, you have a mental disorder.

Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Karen Sherry Brackett said...
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Anonymous said...

I'm sorry Brackett, I don't know why the hell you come here and babble about your life story that no one but you could care less. Don't use this space for your job search effort.

Anonymous said...

...oh shut up already

Jesus said...

This is a good example of where an effectual Godly smitation would be most merciful for all.

Anonymous said...

well jesus ,dood, can he do the finnish troll too just to make sure. i'm going to have a meltdown of my own if i have to be subjected to reading more of this piffle. i'm sayin' an extra prayer.

Anonymous said...

thank you god! you are awesome! prayer does work.

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