Sunday, April 22, 2012

OT: French Presidential Election 1st Round Result

Hollande: 29%
Sarkozy: 26%
Le Pen: 18 to 20%

It looks like Sarkozy needs to veer more to the right to capture Le Pen's supporters, if he wants to remain the president of the republic.

From Reuters (4/22/2012):

UPDATE 6-Hollande tops Sarkozy in French vote, Le Pen surges

Far-right takes a fifth of votes in French first-round vote

* Socialist Hollande beats Sarkozy by 29 pct to 26 pct

* Economic gloom drives voting; debt and austerity tie campaigns

* Turnout healthy among 44.5 million voters in country of 65 million

By Catherine Bremer and Emmanuel Jarry

PARIS, April 22 (Reuters) - Far-rightist Marine Le Pen threw France's presidential race wide open on Sunday by scoring nearly 20 percent in the first round - votes that may determine the runoff between Socialist favourite Francois Hollande and conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Hollande led Sarkozy by about 29 to 26 percent in reliable computer projections broadcast after polling stations closed, and the two will meet in a head-to-head decider on May 6.

But Le Pen's record score of 18-20 percent was the sensation of the night, beating her father's 2002 result and outpolling hard leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, in fourth place on 11 percent. Centrist Francois Bayrou finished fifth on less than 10 percent.

Le Pen, who took over the anti-immigration National Front in early 2011, wants jobs reserved for French nationals at a time when jobless claims are at a 12-year high. She also advocates abandoning the euro currency and restoring monetary policy to Paris.

Her score reflected a surge in anti-establishment populist parties in many euro zone countries from Amsterdam to Athens as austerity and the debt crisis bite.

Voter surveys show about half of her supporters would back Sarkozy in a second round and perhaps one fifth would vote for Hollande, making her a potential kingmaker in the runoff.

...

(Full article at the link)

20 comments:

Atomfritz said...

Let's have a look what Marine LePen says about nuclear power.

"this accident illustrated the dangerousness of this energy and the necessity to consider a progressive and well-thought-out exit from nuclear power" [*]

You see, as LePen is critical of nuclear power, she hits a central nerve of established French politics.

If I were a French, I'd vote for her.

*: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen#Energy_and_transport

Hélios said...

Exact scores :
Sarkozy : 26.56%
Hollande : 27.65%
Le Pen : 19.73%

@ Atomfritz : you know, many promises before elections, and after, they don't remember...

Anonymous said...

A German who would vote for neo-nazi Le Pen, fuck off - and excuse my French.

Anonymous said...

True. If they do, and Hollande is favorite, he might avert the next nuclear disaster:Fessenheim. The only candidate who came to Fukushima and whose program is clearly anti-nuclear, Eva Joly, did only 2.3%, in line with the sentiment one gets when discussing the topic with French people. Conclusion:people don't learn from others’ mistakes. Atomfritz, thank you for coming clear as a neo-nazi - will remember that.

Anonymous said...

True. If they do, and Hollande is favorite, he might avert the next nuclear disaster:Fessenheim. The only candidate who came to Fukushima and whose program is clearly anti-nuclear, Eva Joly, did only 2.3%, in line with the sentiment one gets when discussing the topic with French people. Conclusion:people don't learn from others’ mistakes. Atomfritz, thank you for coming clear as a neo-nazi - will remember that.

Maju said...

Very worrisome the almost 20% of Le Pen, really.

I think that both Hollande and Le Pen offered what Sarko cannot offer anymore: the shadow of a French national policy instead of just licking the boots of Germany and The City. After five years of verbally arrogant but effectively pro-German and pro-Capitalist-International policies, Sako could not anymore sell "France" and without such a product, he could not win (not being a right-wing Napoleonic/Gaullist candidate).

Now he has to carry the Le Pen vote but that's almost for granted (no substantial difference between Le Pen and Sarko, except in gender) but then there are some 9% that went to the "center" candidate Bayrou, 12% to Melenchon (less than expected) and then there's other 3.5% of other left wing candidates (Joly and Poutou): essentially 15% of other left-wing vote which is not granted to go for Hollande if he leans too much to the right.

Sarko might well win again. And that is bad for France and for Europe because it means more of the same and what we have seen in the last five years is awful.

Anonymous said...

If Sarkozy won with the support of far-right, it would be a disgrace for France and one more reason to stay expatriated.

Anonymous said...

We have no future. The Left will sell out, like they always do, and the simps and saps that make up the general public will vote for the neo-Nazis. God help us all.

Viola said...

Hate to see Le Pen so strong :-(
Quote from the full article:
"Jean-Marie Le Pen's 16.9 percent score in the 2002 first round caused a political earthquake, knocking then Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin out of the runoff and forcing left-wing voters to rally behind conservative Jacques Chirac."
I fear this happening again...

Anonymous said...

The (successfull) strategy of Marine Le Pen is to break the right wing alliance that elected M. Sarkozy into pieces.
It is done.

See you next week.

Anonymous said...

French citizen here. To give you a perspective from the inside:
- France is a country full of contrasts, there's a city-center/rough-suburbs/countryside divide, and also a generally left-wing west half vs a right-wing East half (especially south-east where Le Pen came out 1st in many cities)
- there are big differences between Le Pen and Sarkozy, he is pro-european while she wants out of the euro. Not all Le Pen voters are "neo-nazis", many young people have voted for her due to despair at unemployement levels of the youth.
- Sarkozy won't be re-elected, even if 60% of Le Pen voters turned to him in the second round (optimistic given many hate his personality) that's not enough votes.
- when Hollande gets elected and starts renegociating the fiscal compact with Merkel, expect lots of nervosity in the markets. Basically, a lot will hinge on how effective Hollande's jobs-creation policies will prove to be. If it doesn't work, and if the euro crumbles, I could even see Le Pen elected in 2017.
(Full-disclosure: I didn't vote for her, and actually despise her, I'm just trying to analyse things).

Anonymous said...

Viola,

it is a very different situation now, at that time Jospin (left) was relagated in third rank because the more leftist electors thought they could express their wants, and then have a usual left - right second poll. But they were fooled by reality : Jospin was overdrived by Le Pen and was not in the race anylonger ! (He abandonned politics then) So Chirac had his soviet-like score of more than 80 % voters, many of whom, like me, were just saying no to the National Front.

The two next weeks are going to be very interesting.

Maju said...

@Anonymous French citizen:

1. I do not think that the bulk of the vote for Le Pen is mere despair: there were a bunch of left-wing candidates, often very radical, to choose among. They are voting extremist right: 18% of French voters vote Nazi, let's be clear- And that means that they probably think Nazi or at least xenophobic fascist (if you can imagine any difference) in daily terms.

2. Mathematics strongly suggest that Sarko should win with the Nazi vote. Even if only 60% (18%x0.6=10.8%) of the FN voters support Sarko (who is pretty much Nazi himself: he should have no problem gathering at least 80% of Le Pen's voters), and gets half of Bayrou voters (9%x0.5=4.5%) and all the other Gaullistes (1.8%). Then Sarko would get (from 1st round voters in percentage): 27.2+10.8+4.5+1.8=44.3%

Assuming that all the radical left and half of Bayrou voters second Hollande, he'd get: c. 44.0%.

So even with your optimistic figures about almost half of the Le Pen voters going to abstention in second round, Sarko wins by decimals.

It's going to be a very hot second round, Sarko knows that those who can bring him to repeat mandate are Le Pen's voters and therefore he will be more Sarko than ever because being Sarko (wannabe supercop) is pretty much being like Le Pen in all but name (and that he has some Jewish ancestor, I think, something that may put off some of the more classical Nazis maybe but that I'd say it's irrelevant).

I think that the expectations for a Hollande victory are collapsing: mathematics support Sarko, sadly enough.

Atomfritz said...

Does nuclear energy which produces eternal waste and contamination really "solve" the energy problem?
Does mass immigration of Africans and Muslims (who have little to no affinity to education, but reproduce like rabbits) really help solving the unemployment and crime problem?
Does the bleeding-out of France and Germany to save the failed "Euro" construct actually represent the desire of the French and German people?

I feel reminded of the Orwell story "Animal Farm". If anybody voices his disgust of the liabilities the current two-party political system piles up, the sheep cry "Nazi".

Actually the nationalists are the only political party that dislikes the piling up of various liabilities our descendants have to pay for.
To believe that every sixth Frenchman is a Nazi is quite absurd.
The election results only show the increasing dislike for politicians that don't act in the interest of the people who elected them, but in the interest of the multinationals and banking cartels.
As the mass media is owned by these, the usual witch hunt against everybody who is suspected of being a "Nazi", just because of sharing the concerns of every sensible patriot, is of essential importance to ensure that nothing changes.

Anyway, more reading on Sarkozy: http://www.pjvoice.com/v33/33007sarkozy.aspx

Greetings from a patriotic radical democrat.

Anonymous said...

Sheep don't scream - and there is rampant racism and xenophobia in France, mainly directed to Arabs, Muslim or not, and Jews, and condescension for the rest. Yes, one out of six would collaborate with a Nazi invader again, actually probably half of the French population would. Some ignorant, desperate blue collars may have voted Le Pen as a provocation but she is a neo-Nazi, she’ll outshine her father, and you saying you would vote for her if you could fools nobody. You claim to be a Patriot and a Democrat and express extreme ideas. National Socialists aka NaZis did too - and so did that Norwegian mass killer. Enough said.

Anonymous said...

Sheep don't scream - and there is rampant racism and xenophobia in France, mainly directed to Arabs, Muslim or not, and Jews, and condescension for the rest. Yes, one out of six would collaborate with a Nazi invader again, actually probably half of the French population would. Some ignorant, desperate blue collars may have voted Le Pen as a provocation but she is a neo-Nazi, she’ll outshine her father, and you saying you would vote for her if you could fools nobody. You claim to be a Patriot and a Democrat and express extreme ideas. National Socialists aka NaZis did too - and so did that Norwegian mass killer. Enough said.

Maju said...

@Atomfritz: I do not think that there is any "bleeding-out of France and Germany". Both have benefited the most from the Eurozone and even if now France is not benefiting anymore that doesn't put along Germany but along Greece and the other states of Latin Europe, which are the ones actually "bleeding out" because of a too constrictive and pro-German euro model.

Don't be naive: French industrial production has collapsed in the last many years, exactly as that of Italy or Spain (maybe a bit less but the trend is comparable) because of the rigidity of the euro, which is actually a way to pay tribute to Berlin and Washington, and the only beneficiary is Germany and its mini-bloc. Also in youth unemployment France is more in the league of Italy and Spain (>20%) than that of Germany (<10%).

Besides Germany, the only states to clearly benefit from the rigid euro-mess, have been Netherlands and Austria, but the Dutch are also already realizing that the problem is structural and pan-European (if not global) and that they are also suffering.

The big problem with the euro is that it has been too rigid for too long having appreciated maybe even as much as 50% in relation to the US dollar in the last decade, what means huge loss of competitiveness unless you produce only the last segment and import the components from outside the Eurozone. But the problem is not the Eurozone or the euro in themselves but the Germanocentrism of EU policies which are destroying all the rest.

Spain, for example, does not produce the last segment but intermediate or basic ones, so a strong euro is a handicap for this economy. But it's the same accross Europe because most companies do not compete so much with Germany but with the likes of China or Poland. And with this rigid overvalued euro they just can't. And their political classes are blind to this fact because of ignorance or because they have been bribed by the Germans and the Anglo-Saxons.

And that's also the case of France. Hollande was proposing altering this destructive Germano-centrism of the Euro system as far as I know, while Sarkozy is proposing more of the same: the destruction of France and all Europe as sacrifice to the imperial Germano-centric and NATO-centric Moloch.

Le Pen is offering nothing, just blaming the Arabs for the faults of the Europeans (in most cases): how petty, arrogant and pathetic. What a disgrace!

Atomfritz said...

@anon 3:39

What "extreme" ideas do you talk of, please?

@Maju

Thank you for that very good explanation of the problem.

Actually, the weaker economies (like Greece) are being forced to sell themselves out to the international bank(st)ers and "investors" first. The last ones in the Euro chain, Germany, Austria, Netherlands, France, who keep up the Euro by taking over and bailing out the weaker economies from their debts, in the end, will be the long-term sufferers, by being forced to an even more gruesome sellout to the international bank(st)ers and "investors".

Additionally, that massive import of Arabs and Africans is just a matter of "divide et impera". Keep in mind that, if there won't have been the immigrants and the social subsidies to pay them their welfare, Germany (and probably France, too) would be debt-free. Reputable sources, including the leftist "Spiegel", state that the welfare immigrants will cause the collapse of the German finances in a one to two decades if they don't get sent back home asap. If you also keep in mind that four French work to support one immigrant, you'll see that France would be far better off without these.

But, and this is so sad, the only party addressing these very real problems is the nationalists' one. Is everybody who doesn't ignore the facts listed above, a "Nazi"?

Maju said...

Anyone who claims that "four French work to support one immigrant" is a mindless Nazi who wants to transfer guilt from the oligarchs to the underdog, surely because beating the underdog is easier than beating the master - pathetic minions of Evil(TM) that you are!

The reality is generally the opposite: immigrants work for the French (or other Europeans), do the jobs we used not to accept (too low pay, very hard, poor conditions) and pay taxes and social security which then pays for our welfare.

And actually, at least here, Moroccans are returning in big numbers, as Morocco's economy has improved and ours has collapsed (so says Riddah, one of my Moroccan neighbors - who lives off his work, mind you). Meanwhile, not just immigrants leave, sometimes back to their home countries, but Spaniards are migrating to Norway (yeah, crazy idea if you don't speak Norwegian) and end up sleeping in the parks and searching in the rubbish for food.

And let's not forget that we have filled their countries with our immigrants as well: Algeria used to be full of Frenchies, while Palestine has been filled with Poles, Germans and Russians (of Jewish religion). We also conquered all Africa not so long ago and even now "we" (or rather our evil but usually white Capitalist masters) are buying all the farmland in Africa for biofuels, probably causing famines and what not (add oilfields, cocoa plantations, gold mines... Africans seldom get benefit from them, while European banksters and their Nazi minions indirectly do).

While I am anti-Islam because I am seriously anti-all-religions, specially those that are intolerant and sexist, I think that there is a lot of unfairness when blaming immigrants, Muslim or not. They are just pieces moved around by the winds of Capitalism, just like you and me can at any moment (not all emigrate, obviously, most do not). If some parts of the World are well off and others are poor, people will always and normally emigrate from the poor ones to the wealthy ones in hope of improvement and no matter what the law and police say.

No barrier can stop them: only development, equality and justice. For that we need Global Communism.

Anonymous said...

so... ultra-left is OK but not ultra-right?

Post a Comment