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戦争の経済学
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ArmstrongEconomics.com, 2/9/2014より：
戦争の経済学
マーティン・アームストロング
多くの人々が同じ質問を発している－ なぜ今、戦争の話がでるのか？
答えはまったく簡単だ。何千年もの昔までさかのぼる包括的なデータベースを構築する利点の一つは、それを基にいくつもの調査研究を行...
10 years ago
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19 comments:
I doubt it's up to Germany to decide, specially when there's more and more pressure against it's selfish policies that are strangling all Europe.
.. especially with a bank run underway.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57441693/analysts-europe-bank-run-is-under-way/
If you thought that was selfish, wait to see the Uranium & Mercury precipitate out from all that extra coal-burning!
Please don't blame the German people.
German politicians don't like referendums because people usually have other motives than politicians driven by lobbyist money and gifts.
So there was no referendum about if Germans actually wanted the Euro, because all surveys showed Germans didn't like the Euro and wanted to keep the Deutsche Mark.
One of the main criticisms back then was that the necessity to keep the Euro a stable currency like the Deutsche Mark or Schweizer Franken would strangle weaker economies like the Mediterran ones.
And just this is happening now.
And most Germans don't like the prospect of having to pay large part of the debts of Greece etc.
Still today majority of the Germans think that the introduction of the Euro was a big mistake, and still almost half of them would prefer to get back the DM, as a survey report of the other main German state TV channel ARD indicates.
( source: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article13576817 )/Sehnsucht-der-Deutschen-nach-der-D-Mark-sinkt.html )
Nobody will have to pay any debt of Greece... once Greece declares the bankruptcy, declares null and void the Memorandum agreements and nationalizes everything, as will probably happen.
Because Greece has two options now: to be "Haiti" or to be "Cuba" and it's clear that Haiti's lifestyle is not desirable. Cuba's may be debatable but much more desirable in any case and the Greeks, who are the most left-leaning nation of Europe along with Basques, are certainly not dumb.
As for Greek debts, the ones to blame are the banksters of the World, in this particular case very specially Greek and French banks (the initial lenders) and Goldman Sachs, the big manipulator who's got a prize and not any punishment for its behavior: Italy and the BCE (at the very least - both Monti and Draghi are GS men, just like Paulson and others).
I do not blame Germany for the original Greek debts but I do blame Germany for the Idiotic Imperialist Selfish Nationalist tone that has caused EU solidarity to collapse. And without solidarity EU is nothing.
I also blame Germany for forcing the euro (and earlier the EMS, which is 20 years older than the euro) to be a DM of sorts, what is bad for the economy of states like Spain or Italy, who have no "Bayer" style companies but produce much more common goods and services, which have to compete with other normal states like Poland or China.
Now the German People? That's big words. It depends on the individual and his/her stand but in general my impression is that the German regime parties and media (with more than a little Anglo-Saxon support) have succeeded in brainwashing the German People in an attitude that is clearly racist and imperialist nowadays, wanting EU to be their colony and not the solidary federation it was meant to be.
Personally, would it be in my power, I'd suspend Germany's membership in the EU and Eurozone and try to fix the mess with a Latin perspective. It might not work either but the German attitude is hyper-destructive.
"I also blame Germany for forcing the euro..."
Francois Mitterrand later regretted much that he made the abolition of the DM a condition for allowing FRG and GDR to reunite. His calculus was that France would be able to govern Germany if it was under the Euro yoke, which turned out somehow different than he imagined.
The damage is done, deindustrialization of big part of Europe happened, self-reliance has been destroyed to a large extent. Cui bono?
Please again don't blame the Germans for having the Euro imposed onto them.
Germans have learnt to esteem a stable currency like the DM that makes one able to save money and not have to spend it asap because of devaluation. And, to be honest, nobody wants collective poverty just because of an Euro which only serves the interests of the international banksters and financial gamblers, who created the neverending series of bubbles we all suffer from.
The German debt since the Euro introduction skyrocketed from 60% to 80% of GDP.
Germans aren't happy seeing their money being spent for saving banks and speculators.
Defaming this as "racist" is somewhat exaggerated, I think.
We Germans never wanted the Euro, and now being accused of being colonist just because we try to avoid the Euro be a soft currency like the Italian Lira is a bit unfair, I believe.
Well, I'm more in the line of the French franc as lesser evil model, not really the lira. Whatever the case, we must look at the dollar and the yuan (and the sterling pound, etc.) and never let the euro appreciate too much against them as we have done. The euro appreciated at least 40% since inception (although it has fallen down a bit since then but clearly not enough: the euro should be at parity with the USD all the time, +/- 10% but it's now at 1.30 bucks - way too expensive).
The system does not work for all the Eurozone as it is and IMO that means that the Eurozone must reform the system. But it's at least four years too late and a lot of damage that will take long to recover (if such thing is even possible) has already been done.
"... don't blame the Germans for having the Euro imposed onto them"...
I don't blame "the Germans" but Germany (as state). I'll judge each individual of any nationality on his/her own merits.
But in any case if you don't like the euro, you are the only ones who can leave without it being a total disaster. It'll be bad anyhow because the buoyancy of the German economy depends largely on predating on other Europeans and that's not possible without the euro but still Germany is the only major Eurozone state that can exit the euro without it being a catastrophe.
So feel free. The rest of Europeans can only win with a German exit from the Eurozone, sincerely. So far Germany is a parasitic burden, a state that systematically vetoes to do what is good for everyone else like eurobonds or devaluing the euro. And that is a situation that cannot last for much longer.
"Defaming this as "racist" is somewhat exaggerated, I think".
Demanding "Corfu for our money" (and getting everything short of that) is imperialist. Let's recall that Germany never paid war indemnities to Greece and this was a good occasion to make up for that. But instead the German political leaders began asking for "Corfu" and the German so-called 'investors' (looters) getting every other privatized Greek company (which deprived Greece from income to pay the debt - totally destructive colonial looting).
The attitude of German politicians and the like has been absolutely shameful and worst is that the Anglosaxon press has applauded it.
Both Germanic identities have waged a propaganda campaign to insult Greek and other Southern Europeans falsely accusing them of "laziness" and what not, when in fact almost any Southern European works more and is generally more productive that almost any Northern European, getting less money and almost no social benefits from it.
But in the imaginary world of the new Anglo-Germanic racist propaganda machinery, Germans work more than Greeks (totally false) and Greek have more social benefits than Germans (in your dreams!) All lies of the kind I usually hear against immigrants and such.
See:
I want to be Dutch or Those lazy Germans! on the many lies that have been said about Greeks "inefficiency" and Northern European "uberness".
More here: http://forwhatwearetheywillbe.blogspot.com.es/p/whats-wrong-with-eurozone.html
＞So far Germany is a parasitic burden
I learn a new thing or two everyday, but this is a bit too rich to digest.
My opinion but not just that: the whole Eurozone system is designed for the interests of Germany, so much that Germany and its small satellite bloc has drained Latin Europe.
Maps like this one (from a German source such as Der Spiegel) evidence how Northern Europe has grown only a fraction of what Southern Europe has lost in terms of industrial production. Germany grows 4% and France loses 8%, Netherlands grows 4% : Italy loses 11%, Austria grows 9% : Spain loses 17%, etc. All the rest surely went to China, Brazil, Poland, etc.
These are figures for 2005-2010, only partly from the period of crisis, so they indicate a trend that was already taking place in the bubble days but has been aggravated since. And without industrial production, the overall economy collapses.
Germany and others have benefited from the euro (expanded DM) as it is but the Eurozone in general has not. Still Germany has insisted in keeping the euro as it is, without any significant correction (because it works for them so far, regardless of what works for the whole): that's not working nor will ever work and too much time has passed without proper action.
Germany is a very bad European leader and a very bad European associate. I'd rather not work with Germany anymore: it's like a vicious relationship in which you are being abused every other day and yet the abuser accuses you in public of being "lazy" and what not (all false). It requires a divorce and the sooner the better.
"But in the imaginary world of the new Anglo-Germanic racist propaganda machinery, Germans work more than Greeks (totally false) and Greek have more social benefits than Germans (in your dreams!)"
This "racist propaganda" for example states that Greek people go into pension at age 55, while Germans go into pension at age 67.
If this is right, then this "propaganda" that Greeks work less than Germans doesn't seem totally wrong.
"...and the sooner the better."
I agree. I often have to think of the German proverb "Besser ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende" ("Better an end with horror than a horror without end")
"Greek people go into pension at age 55"
Lie!
I'm bored of looking at the facts (cf. Eurostat) and still hardly believing of how German people and others (but now it is indeed the German people) are being misled and manipulated towards a false perception of reality by means of 99% false propaganda, just as happened with Hitler, Goebbels and all that.
I was going to say "beware!" to close this comment but "beware!" would have make better sense years ago. Now it's more like "open your eyes, damn!"
I'm looking for specific statistics (because it's sometimes hard to dig in them) and for example:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-EP-11-001/EN/KS-EP-11-001-EN.PDF (about aging and intergenerational solidarity)
In fig. 3.1. "Number of employed persons who reduced their working hours in a move to full retirement, by age group, 2006"
Greece (EL) is one of the countries where less people retire even if partly even by the age 69, close are Romania (RO), Spain (ES) and Italy (IT).
Instead by age 59, most working Germans (DE) have partially retired: above 50%, above 75% for age 69.
Germany is the country of EU where most people retire the earliest by much!
It's incredible the pile of lies that we have been fed up and how easily we could have dispelled them if we wanted (Eurostat factual data is freely available).
Maybe, Maju.
I am not trusting statistics blindly.
Countries tailor their numbers according to their needs/wishes, so you often cannot compare the numbers of different countries, as they are each calculated differently.
Anyway, the Greek pension age of 55 could be true:
Here some details in an article of the major German financial newspaper "Handelsblatt" about the Greek pension from 55 years on (50 years for women) and how the worker unions battle for these privileges which are at risk now due to the crisis.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/absurde-fruehverrentung-warum-griechische-friseure-gefaehrlich-leben/5873764.html
The reality is that (most) Greeks do not retire at age 55, while many Germans do. That's what Eustat says. I do not know you but I trust much more Eustat than any populist parochial German newspaper.
It's not just one stat: Greeks or peripheral Europeans in general tend to work many more hours, retire later, earn much much less, pay the same of more as Germans for most things, work more weekly hours, have at least the same productivity (often higher), etc. than core Europeans.
All the rest is PROPAGANDA.
In Greece there are problems of corruption of the elites and indeed there may be corners to cut but would you accept getting your pension lowered to €180? Elderly and unemployed Greeks are killing themselves for that: they can't live anymore and I blame at least in a big part to the criminal, chauvinist attitude of Germany.
Wake up!
Maju, you're getting out of the line attacking "criminal chauvinist" Germany. WTF.
Atomfritz, your country should just pull out of euro, and leave the rest to take care of themselves, if they can without the Germany's backing.
Anon. I really dislike that attitude of blaming Greeks and others for problems that have been largely produced by German economic short-sighted egoism.
And I really dislike that attitude of being European for the good and not for the bad that the German state and some German people sport of wanting a EU only for their petty chauvinist interests.
No, I do not think I'm going out of the line, unless it is the line dictated by some macabre propaganda directorate in Brussels or Berlin.
I am truly outraged of how EU has failed European citizens, beginning by the Greeks: they are only concerned about banks, while workers and productive businesspeople alike suffer terribly.
This is simply unbearable!
Maybe because there was never been a "European". They were Germans, Greeks, French, Italian, etc.
Look: there is people. They put labels on us, we sometimes accept and embrace those labels but we are not those labels but up to some point.
Personally I consider myself much more European than many of the other labels some what to impose on me but in any case I am first and foremost a Human Being and the Greeks, the Haitians and the Japanese are my brothers and sisters.
Which is your ethnic label Anon. Because I think you are not German and if you are European you are probably English. No other European behaves that way: we know that Europe is in so many senses such a small, homogeneous and interdependent region that we do not hush the label "European", regardless that we do also have other labels.
But, regardless of all that ethnic identity junk, the case is that EU can be conceived as either a space of solidarity or a space of predation and I want those who think the latter to be expelled from that space because they are destructive forces that can only be considered as social criminals.
I am Japanese. You are free to call it "label" or "ethnic identity junk", but don't force your ideas on others. If you call Germans names like you have been doing, where your sense of "solidarity" then?
I have not called anyone "names". What I say is that the attitude of the German leadership (political, economic and mediatic) is awful. It's them who call names others, very specially but not only to Greeks.
And it's not only the German oligarchy, a close friend of Merkozy, IMF's C. Lagarde today charged again against Greeks (generic) because, according to her, they do not pay taxes. Naturally, Greek Left leaders like Tsipras have shrugged off the Nth unduly insult and reminded that Greek Workers do pay their taxes (they have no choice) and that those taxes are unbearably high - very specially as they are being used to pay debts they have not contracted.
Not a single bourgeois tax evader has been jailed, not a single New Democracy accomplice (let's not forget that the Greek crisis was cooked by the corrupt conservative party) has been sent to trial... but the whole Greek People has been insulted and squeezed to the last blood drop.
Literally.
It's not just Germany, it's also some French and some Anglos and some others: all the bloodsucking oligarchs of Europe and beyond (let's not forget the role of Goldman Sachs, who have been rewarded with the direct control of the BCE and Italy - unbelievable if it wouldn't be true!)
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